Overview
After nearly four years of war that killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions, Ukraine and the United States reached consensus on most points of a 20-point peace framework to end the conflict with Russia. The plan includes NATO-style security guarantees, an 800,000-strong Ukrainian military, and satellite-monitored ceasefire mechanisms. If Russia violates the truce, military response and full sanctions get triggered automatically.
But the deal hinges on two unresolved flashpoints: who controls the Donbas industrial heartland and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Russia holds about 90% of the Donbas, including coal reserves and critical minerals worth trillions. Ukraine's counterproposal—free economic zones subject to referendum—hasn't moved Moscow. Without territorial consensus, the framework remains a blueprint for peace, not peace itself.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
NATO's Article 5 mutual defense clause is the template for proposed Ukraine security guarantees.
The EU is crafting security plans where European forces guarantee Ukraine's air, land, and sea defense.
Timeline
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U.S. and Ukraine Announce Consensus
StatementBoth nations confirm agreement on framework including security guarantees and peacetime military size. Territorial disputes remain.
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Zelensky Unveils 20-Point Framework
StatementUkrainian president reveals peace plan details publicly for first time, noting consensus on 18 of 20 points.
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Miami Peace Talks Held
NegotiationUkrainian delegation led by Umerov meets separately with American counterparts. Witkoff calls talks "constructive."
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Witkoff and Kushner Meet Putin
NegotiationTrump's envoys spend five hours in Kremlin trying to convince Putin to accept updated peace plan.
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Trump Halts Military Aid to Ukraine
PoliticalNew administration stops U.S.-funded military assistance, prioritizes diplomatic solution.
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Trump Wins Presidential Election
PoliticalDonald Trump elected U.S. president, promises to end Ukraine war quickly.
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Ukraine Invades Russian Territory
MilitaryUkrainian forces launch surprise cross-border offensive into Kursk Oblast, capturing 1,250 square kilometers.
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Russia Captures Avdiivka
MilitaryUkrainian stronghold falls after months of grinding assault, opening path for Russian advance.
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Zelensky Replaces Top General
PoliticalValerii Zaluzhnyi fired, replaced by Oleksandr Syrsky amid strategic disagreements.
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Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalls
MilitaryCommander Zaluzhnyi calls war a stalemate after failed summer offensive gains minimal territory.
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Wagner Mercenaries March on Moscow
PoliticalYevgeny Prigozhin leads rebellion, advances toward Moscow before deal ends mutiny. Dies two months later.
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Ukraine Liberates Kherson
MilitaryUkrainian forces retake Kherson city and all land west of the Dnipro River.
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Russia Illegally Annexes Four Regions
PoliticalPutin declares Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson part of Russia without controlling them fully.
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Russian Forces Retreat from Kyiv
MilitaryAfter failing to capture the capital, Russian troops withdraw north. Bucha massacre discovered.
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Russia Invades Ukraine
MilitaryPutin launches full-scale invasion, calling it a "special military operation." Zelensky refuses evacuation.
Scenarios
Putin Accepts Territorial Compromise, War Ends
Discussed by: Optimistic Western analysts and some Trump administration officials
Russia agrees to free economic zones in Donbas subject to future referendum, accepts satellite monitoring, and signs the framework. European forces deploy to guarantee Ukrainian borders. Sanctions lift gradually. Ukraine begins EU accession talks and rebuilds with Western investment. The deal holds for several years, though frozen territorial disputes simmer like Korea's DMZ. This requires Putin to abandon maximalist demands and Trump to deliver credible security guarantees—both increasingly unlikely as Russia continues advancing and Trump's deadline rhetoric escalates without substance.
Framework Collapses, War Grinds On
Discussed by: Analysts at Council on Foreign Relations, European Council on Foreign Relations, skeptical Ukraine observers
Putin rejects any deal that doesn't formalize Russian control of all annexed territories, including parts Ukraine still holds. Trump blames Zelensky for intransigence and further cuts U.S. support. European security guarantees prove hollow without American commitment. The war continues as a grinding stalemate—Russia slowly advances in Donbas, Ukraine holds defensive lines, neither side achieves decisive victory. This mirrors the failed Minsk agreements: ambitious framework, fundamental disagreements papered over, eventual collapse when neither side compromises core demands.
Frozen Conflict with Unstable Ceasefire
Discussed by: Foreign policy experts citing Bosnia Dayton Accords and Korean War parallels
Both sides accept an armistice without resolving territorial control, creating another frozen conflict. A demilitarized zone separates forces, monitoring mechanisms prevent major escalation, but occasional shelling continues. Russia keeps occupied territory, Ukraine doesn't formally cede it. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remains contested. Ukraine gets partial EU integration and some security guarantees, though not NATO membership. Twenty years from now, analysts write about how the Kyiv Accords froze progress rather than achieving peace—just like Dayton did in Bosnia.
Ukraine Pressured Into Capitulation
Discussed by: Ukrainian officials, European allies concerned about Trump's deference to Putin
Trump threatens to abandon Ukraine entirely unless Zelensky accepts Putin's terms. European security guarantees evaporate without U.S. backing. Facing military collapse, Ukraine cedes the entire Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea. Russia gets sanctions relief, territorial gains, and vindication. Zelensky falls from power, blamed for losing the war. Putin interprets this as Western weakness and eyes Moldova and the Baltics next. This nightmare scenario drives Ukrainian resistance to quick deals—they remember Minsk, remember Budapest, remember every promise that evaporated when convenient.
Historical Context
Korean War Armistice (1953)
1950-1953What Happened
After three years of war, the United Nations Command and North Korea signed an armistice establishing a demilitarized zone along the existing battle line. Negotiations dragged for two years, primarily over prisoner repatriation. The agreement suspended hostilities but didn't create lasting peace—South Korea never signed it. Both sides withdrew forces 1.2 miles from the boundary, creating the DMZ.
Outcome
Short term: Fighting stopped. The border remained roughly where it started at the 38th parallel.
Long term: Seven decades later, Korea remains divided. The armistice created one of the world's most enduring frozen conflicts.
Why It's Relevant
Shows how territorial disputes can freeze indefinitely when neither side surrenders claims. Ukraine risks the same: a ceasefire without territorial resolution becomes permanent division.
Minsk Agreements (2014-2015)
2014-2015What Happened
After Russia's 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine with proxy forces, France and Germany brokered two ceasefire agreements in Minsk. Both were violated immediately and repeatedly. Russia positioned itself as neutral mediator while actually being the aggressor. The deals gave Russia de facto control over Donbas without formally ending the conflict.
Outcome
Short term: Ceasefires failed within weeks. Fighting continued at lower intensity until 2022.
Long term: The agreements collapsed entirely when Russia launched its full invasion in 2022, rendering Minsk irrelevant.
Why It's Relevant
Direct predecessor to current negotiations—same region, same opponent, same tactics. Ukraine learned that agreements with Russia without enforcement mechanisms are worthless.
Dayton Accords (1995)
1992-1995What Happened
After four years of Bosnian War that killed 250,000 people, U.S.-led negotiations in Dayton, Ohio produced a framework dividing Bosnia into two entities: 51% for the Bosniak-Croat federation, 49% for Republika Srpska. The agreement ended active fighting but created a dysfunctional state divided along ethnic-territorial lines that had sparked the war.
Outcome
Short term: The war ended. NATO peacekeepers deployed. Refugees began returning.
Long term: Nearly 30 years later, Bosnia remains politically paralyzed. Dayton froze conflict but also froze progress toward functional government.
Why It's Relevant
The clearest parallel for Ukraine's potential outcome: peace that stops the dying but entrenches division. Shows how territorial compromises can create unstable frozen conflicts.