Overview
Thai jets are bombing positions inside Cambodia. Artillery is pounding villages along an 817-kilometre frontier. What began as skirmishes over a disputed border has spun into the fiercest fighting between Thailand and Cambodia in more than a decade, shredding a ceasefire Donald Trump claimed as a personal diplomatic win.
Hundreds of thousands have been driven from their homes. A Malaysian-brokered peace accord, co-signed by Trump and ASEAN leaders in October, is hanging by a thread after Thailand suspended it and returned to airstrikes. The next moves by Bangkok, Phnom Penh, Washington and ASEAN will decide whether this stays a brutal border war—or becomes a regional crisis that drags in great powers.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
Thailand’s military is the dominant security actor, now waging the largest cross-border operation in decades.
Cambodia’s military is outgunned but entrenched on home terrain, trading artillery fire with Thailand.
ASEAN is trying to prove it can manage regional security crises without outside enforcement.
Washington is mixing tariff threats, public pressure, and support for ASEAN to keep the peace deal alive.
Timeline
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International pressure mounts to restore ceasefire
International ResponseTrump and Rubio urge an immediate halt; Malaysia and the UN call for renewed talks and monitoring.
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Fighting spreads along 817-km frontier
MilitaryClashes enter a second day and widen to new sectors; both sides trade accusations of shelling civilians.
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Thailand launches air raids along border
MilitaryThai jets strike what they call Cambodian military targets; Cambodia reports civilian deaths and mass evacuations.
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Thailand suspends peace accord after new landmine blast
PoliticalBangkok halts implementation of the accord when another landmine maims a Thai soldier, blaming Cambodia.
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Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord signed at ASEAN summit
DiplomacyThailand and Cambodia sign a detailed de-escalation accord, creating an ASEAN Observer Team and pullback plan.
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Malaysia hosts talks; ‘immediate and unconditional’ ceasefire agreed
DiplomacyMalaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim brokers a ceasefire between Thai and Cambodian leaders, with US and China present.
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Trump threatens tariffs, pushes ceasefire talks
International ResponseTrump says he won’t sign trade deals until fighting stops, as casualties and evacuations mount on both sides.
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Full-scale clashes erupt along frontier
MilitaryArtillery, rockets and Thai airstrikes pound positions along a 40-kilometre stretch, displacing over 200,000 people.
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Thai soldier maimed by landmine near border
MilitaryA Thai soldier is badly injured by an anti-personnel mine, which Bangkok claims Cambodia recently laid, igniting anger.
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Border skirmish kills Cambodian soldier, tensions surge
MilitaryA brief firefight in a contested area kills a Cambodian soldier, triggering tit-for-tat diplomatic steps.
Scenarios
ASEAN Monitors Restore Ceasefire, Border War Freezes
Discussed by: Al Jazeera, regional analysts at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, ASEAN diplomats
Under heavy pressure from Trump, Rubio and ASEAN, Thailand halts airstrikes in exchange for tighter ceasefire monitoring and clearer rules of engagement. The Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord is patched rather than replaced, with an expanded ASEAN Observer Team deployed to hotspots and joint de-mining accelerated. Both governments sell the deal at home as defending sovereignty while avoiding economic pain and refugee chaos. The conflict settles into a tense, occasionally violent stalemate but full-scale war recedes.
Thai Offensive Creates Buffer Strip Inside Cambodia
Discussed by: Commentary in Thai nationalist media, unnamed military sources quoted in regional press
If Bangkok concludes talks only constrain its freedom of action, hardliners might push for a limited ground offensive to seize a de facto buffer zone on high ground inside Cambodia. Thai forces, with air superiority, could rapidly overrun lightly defended areas, presenting ASEAN with a fait accompli. Cambodia would struggle to respond conventionally and might escalate asymmetrically or appeal to China. Civilian casualties and accusations of occupation would spark international condemnation and likely sanctions, isolating Thailand diplomatically.
War Spreads Into a U.S.–China Sanctions Showdown
Discussed by: Strategic commentary in think-tank reports, some Western and Chinese analysts
China, long close to Cambodia and economically tied to Thailand, could decide Washington is using tariffs and diplomacy to box it out of mainland Southeast Asia. If Beijing steps up military aid or economic guarantees to Phnom Penh while the U.S. doubles down on tariff pressure and arms for Thailand, the border war could mutate into a sanctions and influence battle. Direct fighting would likely remain local, but regional supply chains and ASEAN unity would suffer.
Domestic Backlash Forces Leaders Toward Real Border Settlement
Discussed by: Cautious speculation by regional scholars and human rights groups
If civilian casualties and prolonged displacement erode support for the war in both countries, Hun Manet and Anutin could face protests, elite grumbling or economic blowback. That might create space for a bigger bargain: submitting disputed sectors to international arbitration, formal demilitarised zones, and long-term joint development schemes, echoing post-Preah Vihear arrangements. It would require both leaders to confront nationalist narratives and sideline hawks in their security establishments, a heavy lift but not impossible over time.
Historical Context
Thailand–Cambodia Preah Vihear Clashes
2008–2011What Happened
Disputes over the area around Cambodia’s Preah Vihear temple ignited repeated border skirmishes with Thailand, involving artillery, rockets and evacuations of civilians. Nationalist politics on both sides magnified the crisis, while ASEAN struggled to mediate. Eventually, international legal rulings and quiet diplomacy reduced tensions, though the underlying border demarcation issues never fully disappeared.
Outcome
Short term: Fighting eased after observers deployed and the International Court of Justice reaffirmed Cambodia’s sovereignty around the temple.
Long term: The dispute entrenched mutual suspicion and set the stage for the current 2025 confrontation.
Why It's Relevant
Shows how temple- and map-based border disputes can flare repeatedly despite legal rulings and past ceasefires.
Laos–Thailand Border War
1987–1988What Happened
Thai and Lao forces fought a short but intense war over disputed villages along their mountainous border. Artillery duels and infantry clashes caused several hundred casualties on both sides before international and regional pressure pushed them back to negotiations. The fighting never developed into a full invasion but left deep scars in border communities.
Outcome
Short term: A ceasefire restored the previous status quo, with both sides claiming victory.
Long term: Thailand and Laos eventually moved to joint boundary committees and quieter dispute management.
Why It's Relevant
Illustrates how limited border wars in mainland Southeast Asia can burn hot, then return to uneasy diplomacy without clear resolution.
India–Pakistan Kargil War
May–July 1999What Happened
Pakistani troops and militants infiltrated ridgelines on the Indian side of the Line of Control in Kashmir, prompting a fierce Indian counteroffensive backed by air power. The conflict stayed geographically limited but risked broader escalation between nuclear-armed neighbours before U.S. diplomacy helped convince Pakistan to withdraw.
Outcome
Short term: India recaptured most positions; Pakistan faced international pressure and domestic fallout.
Long term: The war underscored the danger of miscalculation in ‘limited’ border adventures and the role of outside mediators.
Why It's Relevant
Highlights the risks if one side in the Thai–Cambodian conflict tries to change facts on the ground under cover of a local war.