Overview
When Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus on December 8, 2024, ending 54 years of family rule, Washington faced a choice: maintain the sanctions strangling Syria's economy or bet on a rebel commander with al-Qaeda roots. Seven months later, Trump lifted comprehensive Syria sanctions entirely. Now OFAC manages a surgical program targeting Assad loyalists, Captagon traffickers, and Iranian proxies while $14 billion in international deals flow into Syria's reconstruction.
The stakes are a $216 billion rebuilding project and the question of whether a former jihadist can govern. Congress repealed the Caesar Act in December 2025, making sanctions relief permanent. But 139 individuals stay blacklisted under the new PAARSS program. Syria gets capital and trade. America keeps leverage over who profits.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
OFAC manages what sanctions remain after Trump's wholesale Syria relief.
The Islamist rebel group that conquered Syria and then dissolved itself into government.
The lender putting a price tag on Syria's reconstruction needs.
Timeline
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OFAC Updates PAARSS Designations
SanctionsTechnical update removes Caesar Act tags from existing designations while maintaining PAARSS restrictions.
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Caesar Act Formally Repealed
SanctionsTrump signs NDAA making sanctions relief permanent, with 180-day review requirements over four years.
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UN Removes Al-Sharaa from Terror List
InternationalSecurity Council Resolution 2799 lifts sanctions on Syria's president ahead of Washington visit.
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PAARSS Program Takes Effect
SanctionsOFAC replaces comprehensive Syria sanctions with targeted list of 139 Assad associates and destabilizing actors.
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Trump Lifts Comprehensive Sanctions
SanctionsExecutive Order 14312 terminates Syria emergency, removes 518 entities from sanctions list effective July 1.
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Interim Constitution Ratified
LegalAl-Sharaa signs provisional constitution establishing five-year transition through 2030.
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Al-Sharaa Named President
PoliticalHTS leader declared Syria's transitional president at Revolution Victory Conference.
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Assad Flees, Regime Collapses
Regime ChangeAssad escapes to Russia as rebels take Damascus, ending 54 years of family rule.
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HTS Launches Final Offensive
MilitaryRebels push from Idlib, capturing Aleppo, Hama, and Homs in 11 days.
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Caesar Act Becomes Law
SanctionsCongress imposes sweeping sanctions targeting Assad regime for human rights abuses documented in leaked photos.
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Syrian Civil War Begins
ConflictAssad regime cracks down violently on Arab Spring protests, igniting 13-year civil war.
Scenarios
Al-Sharaa Consolidates Power, Syria Stabilizes
Discussed by: Carnegie Endowment, Brookings Institution, optimistic Gulf investors
The transitional president holds elections by 2029, moderates his Islamist roots, and welcomes $200 billion in Gulf reconstruction funding. Syria becomes a Turkish-Saudi sphere of influence, displacing Iranian and Russian presence. The PAARSS program gradually shrinks as human rights improve and Captagon networks stay dismantled. Critics who warned about empowering a jihadist look foolish as Syria joins regional normalization. Trump claims vindication for his sanctions gamble.
Syria Fragments, Sanctions Return
Discussed by: Syria analysts at Atlantic Council, regional security experts
Al-Sharaa can't govern beyond his Sunni base. Kurds declare autonomy. ISIS regroups. Captagon production resumes under new warlords. Congress demands sanctions snapback after Syria misses counterterrorism benchmarks in the 180-day reviews. Reconstruction stalls as investors flee renewed instability. The $14 billion in early deals evaporate. OFAC expands PAARSS designations, approaching pre-July 2025 levels. The Syria experiment becomes a cautionary tale about premature sanctions relief.
Authoritarian Drift, Selective Sanctions Pressure
Discussed by: Foreign Policy analysts, human rights organizations, EU officials
Al-Sharaa postpones elections indefinitely, consolidates power through HTS networks, and governs as an Islamist autocrat. He's pragmatic enough to avoid chemical weapons and Captagon, passing the 180-day reviews on narrow counterterrorism grounds while suppressing minorities and dissent. OFAC adds a few dozen new PAARSS designations around his inner circle but stops short of comprehensive sanctions. Reconstruction proceeds slowly. Syria ends up as another flawed state getting Western investment despite authoritarian governance.
Historical Context
Iraq Sanctions and Reconstruction (1990-2011)
1990-2011What Happened
The UN imposed comprehensive sanctions on Iraq after Kuwait's invasion, maintained them through Saddam Hussein's rule, then lifted them after the 2003 invasion. The sanctions caused massive humanitarian suffering. Post-invasion reconstruction faced corruption, insurgency, and lack of comprehensive planning despite hundreds of billions in spending.
Outcome
Short term: Comprehensive sanctions devastated Iraqi civilians while Saddam's regime endured through oil smuggling.
Long term: Reconstruction proved chaotic and corruption-riddled, reshaping how the international community approaches sanctions.
Why It's Relevant
Syria watchers invoke Iraq as both warning and template: lift sanctions too slowly and civilians suffer, lift them too quickly without planning and you get chaos and corruption.
Libya Sanctions Relief and Conflict Return (2003-2011)
2003-2011What Happened
After Gaddafi abandoned WMD programs in 2003, the US lifted sanctions and normalized relations. Libya rejoined international markets. Eight years later, NATO intervention helped rebels overthrow Gaddafi, plunging the country into ongoing civil war and state collapse.
Outcome
Short term: Sanctions relief brought Libya billions in oil revenue and foreign investment during the 2000s.
Long term: Post-Gaddafi Libya fragmented into competing governments, militias, and foreign intervention zones that persist today.
Why It's Relevant
The parallel is obvious: sanctions relief for a pariah state after regime behavior changes, followed years later by violent collapse. Can al-Sharaa avoid Gaddafi's fate?
Iran Nuclear Deal Sanctions Relief (2015-2018)
2015-2018What Happened
The JCPOA lifted most Iran sanctions in exchange for nuclear restrictions. European companies rushed in with deals. Trump withdrew in 2018, reimposing sanctions and forcing European firms to exit. Iran's economy collapsed again.
Outcome
Short term: Iran accessed frozen assets and boosted oil exports during the brief sanctions relief window.
Long term: Sanctions snapback destroyed Iran's economy and discredited moderates who negotiated the deal.
Why It's Relevant
Syria's sanctions relief faces the same political fragility: congressional reviews every 180 days create uncertainty deterring long-term investment, and a future president could reverse everything.