Overview
Ten CV-22 Osprey special operations aircraft landed in Puerto Rico on December 23, joining 15,000 U.S. troops, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, and F-35 fighters already deployed to the Caribbean. It's the largest U.S. military buildup in the region since the 1989 Panama invasion. Venezuela responded by mobilizing 200,000 troops in what Caracas calls defensive exercises against American aggression.
The standoff stems from Venezuela's disputed July 2024 election, where Nicolás Maduro claimed victory despite opposition evidence showing he lost by a two-to-one margin. The Trump administration designated Maduro's government a narco-terrorist organization, launched deadly strikes on 29 alleged drug boats killing 104 people, seized sanctioned oil tankers, and imposed a naval blockade. Trump stated land strikes are coming and suggested seizing Venezuela's oil. Maduro's regime has requested military aid from Russia, China, and Iran, while both Beijing and Moscow condemned U.S. actions but offered limited material support.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The military command responsible for U.S. operations in Latin America and the Caribbean, now executing the largest regional buildup in decades.
Network of Venezuelan military officials allegedly using state institutions to traffic narcotics; name derives from sun insignias on military uniforms.
Venezuela's main opposition alliance that united behind González after Maduro banned primary winner María Corina Machado.
Timeline
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10 CV-22 Osprey special operations aircraft arrive Puerto Rico
MilitarySpecial ops forces from Cannon AFB, Fort Campbell, Fort Stewart deploy to Caribbean bases.
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Trump announces ground strikes coming
Statement"Soon we will be starting the same program on land," President states at Mar-a-Lago.
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Second oil tanker Centuries seized
MilitaryCoast Guard boards vessel not under sanctions; blockade expands beyond stated parameters.
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Trump orders oil tanker blockade
MilitaryBlockade of sanctioned vessels entering or leaving Venezuela announced.
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SOUTHCOM commander Holsey retires early
LeadershipAdmiral steps down after 13 months amid reported disputes over strike legality.
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U.S. seizes oil tanker Skipper off Venezuelan coast
MilitarySpecial forces from Ford carrier board sanctioned vessel; first major seizure.
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Cartel de los Soles designated Foreign Terrorist Organization
SanctionsState Department labels network headed by Maduro; provides legal basis for military strikes.
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Ford enters Caribbean Sea proper
MilitaryCarrier group passes through Anegada Passage; brings U.S. personnel to 15,000.
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USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group arrives
MilitaryAmerica's largest warship enters region; Venezuela announces massive mobilization.
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Maduro declares nationwide state of emergency
PoliticalPlaces armed forces on wartime alert citing external threats.
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First U.S. airstrikes on alleged drug boats
MilitaryTrump administration launches kinetic operations against vessels off Venezuelan coast.
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U.S. begins Caribbean naval buildup
MilitaryUSS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group deployed with stated counter-narcotics mission.
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Treasury designates Cartel de los Soles as terrorist group
SanctionsFirst designation as Specially Designated Global Terrorist; targets Maduro regime officials.
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Maduro sworn in for third term
PoliticalTakes office despite international rejection; González tours capitals seeking support.
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U.S. formally recognizes González as president-elect
DiplomaticBiden administration takes stronger stance ahead of Trump inauguration.
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González granted asylum, flees to Spain
PoliticalOpposition leader evacuated on Spanish military aircraft after days in embassy.
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Arrest warrant issued for González
LegalCharged with conspiracy and falsification; seeks refuge in Dutch embassy.
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U.S. recognizes González as election winner
DiplomaticSecretary Blinken cites "overwhelming evidence" González won; Argentina, Peru, Uruguay follow.
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Venezuela holds disputed presidential election
PoliticalGovernment declares Maduro winner with 51%; opposition tallies from 85% of machines show González won with 66%.
Scenarios
Limited Strikes Force Maduro Exile, Opposition Takes Power
Discussed by: Analysts at Council on Foreign Relations, Americas Quarterly, and Venezuelan opposition figures
Targeted U.S. airstrikes on Venezuelan military installations combined with intensified economic pressure fracture the regime's support base. Key military commanders defect after realizing Maduro cannot defend against American power projection. Maduro accepts an exile deal brokered by Russia or China, similar to how Manuel Noriega's regime collapsed in 1989 Panama. González returns from Spain to assume the presidency with international recognition, backed by interim security guarantees from regional partners like Colombia and Brazil. The transition happens within weeks, averting prolonged conflict but leaving Venezuela's military and economic infrastructure damaged.
Full Invasion Triggers Prolonged Insurgency
Discussed by: War on the Rocks, Latin America security experts, military analysts on NPR
Trump orders a large-scale ground invasion using the 15,000 troops already deployed plus additional forces from the 82nd Airborne. While U.S. forces quickly overwhelm Venezuela's conventional military in days of fighting, Maduro activates his claimed 4.5 million militia members and retreats into urban guerrilla warfare. Cuba dispatches advisors while Russia and China provide arms and intelligence. What begins as a quick regime-change operation devolves into a multi-year occupation reminiscent of Iraq. Latin American allies who initially supported pressure on Maduro condemn the invasion, isolating the U.S. diplomatically while American troops face improvised explosive devices and sniper attacks in Caracas slums.
Standoff Collapses Into Blockade Without Invasion
Discussed by: Carnegie Endowment, Atlantic Council, Latin America economic analysts
Trump continues seizing oil tankers and conducting boat strikes but stops short of land invasion after military advisors warn of casualties and regional blowback. The naval blockade becomes semi-permanent, strangling Venezuela's oil exports and accelerating economic collapse. Maduro remains in power through 2025 and beyond, sustained by limited Chinese and Russian aid and smuggling networks through Colombia and Brazil. Venezuela descends into a failed-state equilibrium: Maduro controls Caracas and military installations, but much of the country fragments into zones controlled by criminal groups, ELN guerrillas, and local strongmen. The refugee crisis intensifies, pushing total displacement past 10 million.
Military Defection Triggers Internal Coup
Discussed by: Venezuelan opposition leaders, Inter-American Dialogue researchers, former U.S. diplomats
The presence of overwhelming U.S. military force convinces a faction of Venezuelan generals that Maduro's regime is doomed. Senior military officers stage an internal coup, arresting Maduro and his inner circle to prevent a devastating American invasion. The generals negotiate directly with Washington and the opposition, agreeing to a transition that grants them amnesty in exchange for transferring power to González. This scenario requires both U.S. willingness to accept compromises with military figures linked to human rights abuses and coordination with González's team to ensure the generals see a path to survival. Brazil and Colombia play mediating roles, providing the generals assurance against prosecution.
Historical Context
Panama Invasion (Operation Just Cause, 1989)
December 1989 - January 1990What Happened
The U.S. deployed 24,000 troops to overthrow Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega after he annulled elections and a U.S. Marine was killed. Special operations forces and the 82nd Airborne seized key installations in predawn raids. Noriega sought refuge in the Vatican embassy before surrendering on January 3. The operation took five days of major combat and resulted in 23 U.S. deaths, 150 Panamanian military deaths, and an estimated 500 civilian casualties.
Outcome
Short term: Noriega was extradited to the U.S., convicted of drug trafficking, and imprisoned for 17 years.
Long term: Panama's democratic government was restored, but the invasion damaged U.S.-Latin American relations for a generation and raised questions about unilateral military intervention.
Why It's Relevant
The current Venezuela buildup mirrors Operation Just Cause in scale, legal justification (drug trafficking), and goal (regime change). Trump officials have explicitly discussed Noriega as a precedent for deposing Maduro.
Grenada Invasion (Operation Urgent Fury, 1983)
October 25-29, 1983What Happened
President Reagan ordered 8,000 U.S. troops and Marines to invade the tiny Caribbean island after a coup installed a Marxist military council. Army Rangers parachuted onto Point Salines airstrip while Marines landed by helicopter. Within four days, U.S. forces controlled the island, rescued American medical students, and installed a pro-Western government. The operation faced fierce criticism from allies including the UK and Canada but was popular domestically as a Cold War victory.
Outcome
Short term: The Revolutionary Military Council collapsed; democratic elections were held in 1984.
Long term: Grenada remained stable and pro-U.S., but the invasion established a controversial precedent for unilateral military action in the Western Hemisphere citing protection of American citizens.
Why It's Relevant
Grenada shows how quickly U.S. forces can topple a small Caribbean government, but Venezuela's 200,000-strong military and 30 million population make it a vastly different challenge. The operation's justification—protecting Americans and combating Soviet influence—parallels current rhetoric about narco-terrorism.
Venezuela Coup Attempt (April 2002)
April 11-14, 2002What Happened
Venezuelan military officers backed by business elites and opposition groups ousted President Hugo Chávez in a coup, installing businessman Pedro Carmona as interim president. The Bush administration knew about the plot weeks in advance and quickly recognized the new government. However, massive street protests by Chávez supporters and loyalist military units forced Carmona's resignation after just 47 hours. Chávez returned to power and purged the military of coup plotters, consolidating his control.
Outcome
Short term: Chávez survived and grew more authoritarian, accelerating Venezuela's alignment with Cuba and confrontation with Washington.
Long term: The failed coup became a foundational myth for Chavismo, justifying decades of anti-American rhetoric and emergency measures that Maduro now exploits to maintain power.
Why It's Relevant
The 2002 failure demonstrated that Venezuelan popular nationalism can override elite opposition, even with U.S. backing. Any American military intervention risks galvanizing support for Maduro by confirming his narrative of imperialist aggression, repeating the coup's backfire effect.