Paul R. Ehrlich

Stories

The bet that tested whether humanity is running out of everything

As of May 2026: Lost the wager; continued advocating for population-control policies

In 1980, biologist Paul Ehrlich—who had warned that hundreds of millions would starve to death in the 1970s—agreed to bet economist Julian Simon on the price of five commodity metals. If inflation-adjusted prices rose over the decade, Ehrlich wins; if they fell, Simon wins.

Updated May 30

Notable Quotes

"The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death." — The Population Bomb, 1968

from The bet that tested whether humanity is running out of everything · Updated May 30

"If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000." — Speech, 1971

from The bet that tested whether humanity is running out of everything · Updated May 30