Crédit Agricole proposes merger with Banco BPM

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

Crédit Agricole already owns 29.6% of Banco BPM. On Nov. 9, it proposed folding its Italian subsidiary into the Milan-based lender, creating a bank with 6.5 million customers and more than 2,300 branches. Banco BPM shares jumped 11%; Crédit Agricole's fell about 1%.

The proposal offers Banco BPM shareholders a 20% premium on 2027 earnings and a €1 billion extraordinary dividend. Crédit Agricole's stake would rise to roughly 45%, but only if Banco BPM's minority shareholders approve an exemption from Italy's mandatory takeover rules and the Rome government clears the deal through its golden-power review.

Why it matters

A French lender would hold 45% of Italy's third-largest bank, if Rome's golden-power review lets it through.

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Key Indicators

29.6%

Crédit Agricole's current stake in Banco BPM

Crédit Agricole is already Banco BPM's largest shareholder.

45%

Crédit Agricole's stake in the combined entity

The increase would normally trigger a mandatory takeover offer for all of Banco BPM.

20%

Premium offered to Banco BPM shareholders

Measured against the 2027 price-to-earnings multiple used to value Crédit Agricole's contributed businesses, not the share price.

€1B

Extraordinary dividend to Banco BPM shareholders

Paid on top of the share exchange.

€800M

Estimated annual pre-tax synergies

Crédit Agricole expects the deal to lift Banco BPM's 2027 earnings per share by about 24%.

6.5M

Customers of the combined group

Served through more than 2,300 branches.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

People Involved

Giuseppe Castagna

Chief executive of Banco BPM

Would remain chief executive of the combined entity under the proposal

Philippe Brassac

Chief executive of Crédit Agricole S.A.

Leading the merger proposal

Giorgia Meloni

Prime Minister of Italy

Her government holds the golden-power decision

Andrea Orcel

Chief executive of UniCredit

Abandoned his 2024–25 bid for Banco BPM

Luigi Lovaglio

Chief executive of Monte dei Paschi di Siena

His all-share bid for Banco BPM was rejected by his own shareholders

Organizations Involved

Crédit Agricole S.A.

French banking group

Proposed the merger; largest Banco BPM shareholder

France's largest retail banking group and, through its 29.6% stake, the largest shareholder in Banco BPM.

Banco BPM S.p.A.

Italian bank

Evaluating Crédit Agricole's proposal

Italy's third-largest listed bank by assets and the target of three separate takeover approaches since 2024.

Crédit Agricole Italia

Italian banking subsidiary

Would be merged into Banco BPM

Crédit Agricole's Italian retail bank and the asset being contributed to the combined group.

Italian Government

National government cabinet

Holds the golden-power decision

Italy's cabinet, which can impose conditions or block takeovers of strategic companies under its golden-power rules.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Bank

Its Banco BPM offer was rejected by its own shareholders

The Siena-based lender whose all-share offer for Banco BPM collapsed in October 2026.

Timeline

November 2024 November 2026

6 events Latest: Today

Tap a bar to jump to that date

November 2026
Crédit Agricole proposes merging with Banco BPM
Today Merger proposal

Crédit Agricole proposes combining Banco BPM with Crédit Agricole Italia, offering a 20% premium and a €1 billion dividend. Banco BPM shares rise 11%.
Today
October 2026
MPS shareholders reject the Banco BPM offer
Shareholder vote

91.1% of the capital present at Monte dei Paschi's meeting votes against the offer for Banco BPM.
October 29th, 2026
September 2026
Crédit Agricole rules out a deal without it
Statement

Crédit Agricole executives say nothing can happen without the French group and name merger with Crédit Agricole Italia as their preferred route.
September 2026
August 2026
Monte dei Paschi bids for Banco BPM
Takeover bid

MPS offers 1.567 of its own shares for each Banco BPM share, with no premium to the Aug. 19 closing price.
August 21st, 2026
July 2025
UniCredit abandons its bid
Withdrawal

UniCredit withdraws after a fight with the Italian government over golden-power conditions.
July 2025
November 2024
UniCredit opens the contest for Banco BPM
Takeover bid

UniCredit launches an all-share offer for Banco BPM initially valued at about €10.1 billion.
November 25th, 2024

Scenarios

Deal clears Rome and closes in 2027

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Crédit Agricole's own timetable; Equita analysts call the proposal attractive to Banco BPM shareholders

Crédit Agricole negotiates the exchange ratio with Banco BPM's board, wins the two-thirds whitewash vote at an extraordinary shareholder meeting, and accepts conditions from the Italian government's golden-power review. Completion lands in the second half of 2027, as the French group projects.

Golden-power conditions stall or kill the merger

Possible Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Equita and Intermonte analysts, who call golden power the main source of uncertainty

Rome attaches conditions to the deal, most likely around Banco BPM's control of the asset manager Anima or Italian employment and lending commitments. If the conditions erode the industrial case, Crédit Agricole walks away, as UniCredit did in 2025.

Banco BPM's minority shareholders block the whitewash

Unlikely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Italian press analysis of the vote mechanics

The merger needs two-thirds of the capital represented at Banco BPM's extraordinary meeting, and the exemption from the mandatory takeover offer fails if a majority of non-Crédit Agricole shareholders present votes against. Minority holders could reject the terms, forcing Crédit Agricole either to launch a full takeover offer or withdraw.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

November 2024 – July 2025

UniCredit's failed Banco BPM bid (2024–2025)

UniCredit launched a €10.1 billion all-share offer for Banco BPM in November 2024. The Meloni government intervened with golden-power conditions, arguing strategic national interests. UniCredit challenged part of the conditions in court and won some relief, but abandoned the bid in July 2025 rather than accept the remaining uncertainty.

Then

Banco BPM stayed independent and Crédit Agricole remained its largest shareholder.

Now

The episode established that Rome is willing to use golden power against bank takeovers, and it left the field clear for a French-led deal.

Why this matters now

Crédit Agricole's proposal faces the same review that ended UniCredit's bid, which is why analysts call golden power the decisive variable.

February – August 2020

Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover of UBI Banca (2020)

Intesa Sanpaolo launched a €4.9 billion all-share offer for UBI Banca in February 2020, the largest Italian bank merger in years. It raised the exchange ratio mid-campaign and won acceptances, completing the deal in August 2020.

Then

Intesa became Italy's largest bank by assets and branches.

Now

The deal showed that domestic consolidation could clear Italian regulators, in contrast with foreign-led bids.

Why this matters now

It is the template Crédit Agricole is trying to follow: a friendly, share-based merger that keeps the target's brand and management, rather than a hostile takeover.