Since early December 2025, the war has combined intensified winter ground pushes in Kharkiv and Donetsk—where Russia claims incremental gains around Kupiansk and Lyman—with unprecedented drone and missile campaigns hitting deep into each other's energy and industrial infrastructure. Russia's Oreshnik missile redeployment in January 2026, followed by a record February 2 barrage of over 450 drones and 70 missiles just before US-brokered Abu Dhabi peace talks, cut power across multiple regions and killed dozens, while Ukraine struck Oreshnik production sites and refineries in response. The EU's €105 billion market-backed loan proceeded without frozen assets after Russia's January 16 Euroclear lawsuit hearing went behind closed doors.
Three pressure points now dominate: Russia's battlefield momentum versus Ukraine's drone interdiction of its war economy; the viability of US-European security guarantees as Trump engages Moscow directly; and whether Abu Dhabi talks' military dialogue restart can de-escalate strikes or merely pause them. With Zelenskyy reporting 55,000 Ukrainian troops killed to date and both sides sustaining massive air campaigns, the economic toll tests endurance while diplomacy hints at fragile progress.
Click a figure to generate their perspective on this story
Related Media
Images from Openverse under Creative Commons licenses.
Key Indicators
521
Drones + missiles in February 2 Russian strike package
Record attack with 450+ drones and 70+ missiles hit energy targets day before Abu Dhabi talks; dozens killed, widespread blackouts.
€105B
EU loan to Ukraine (2026-27) without using Russian assets
Market borrowing approved after January 16 Euroclear hearing closed to public; Russia seeks $232B compensation.
55,000
Ukrainian troops killed (Zelenskyy total to Feb 2026)
Up from 46,000 reported early 2025; reflects attritional winter fighting.
30,000+
Russian troops killed by Ukrainian drones in January 2026
DELTA-verified strikes; Ukraine targets 60,000/month in 2026.
Feb 5
US-Russia military dialogue restart post-Abu Dhabi
Hotlines resume after talks; no ceasefire but de-escalation signal.
People Involved
Vladimir Putin
President of Russia (Authorizing record strikes pre-Abu Dhabi while agreeing to US-Russia military dialogue restart)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President of Ukraine (Pushing security guarantees amid record Russian strikes and Abu Dhabi talks progress)
Robert “Magyar” Brovdi
Commander, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (Public face of Ukraine’s widening long-range strike campaign)
Ihor Obolienskyi
Commander linked to Ukraine’s Khartiia Corps (National Guard) (Claiming operational success around Kupiansk)
Mark Rutte
NATO Secretary General (Warning allies the Ukraine war’s threat radius could expand)
Donald Trump
President of the United States (2025-) (Brokering Abu Dhabi talks yielding US-Russia military hotline restart; security guarantees pending Congressional vote)
Bart De Wever
Prime Minister of Belgium (Blocked EU plan to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine loan, citing risk to Euroclear)
Organizations Involved
MI
Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
National defense ministry
Status: Issuer of territorial and air-defense claims shaping Russia’s momentum narrative
Russia’s defense ministry is the main engine for official claims of captures and drone shoot-down totals.
UN
Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Military command
Status: Driving deep-strike operations against Russian industrial inputs and logistics
Ukraine’s drone force is trying to turn range into leverage by hitting production and supply nodes inside Russia.
SE
Security Service of Ukraine (SBU)
National security service
Status: Linked by Ukrainian reporting to long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure
The SBU is repeatedly linked to Ukraine’s most ambitious deep-strike operations.
Status: Closed-door preliminary hearing in Jan 16 Moscow lawsuit; Russia seeks $232B over frozen €193B assets
Euroclear sits on the pressure point where sanctions, financing, and retaliation collide.
EU
European Union
Supranational Union
Status: Approved €105B loan via market borrowing; rejected frozen-asset backing after Belgian opposition
The EU is testing a new kind of war finance: using frozen sovereign assets without full confiscation.
SE
Security Service of Ukraine (SBU)
National security and intelligence service
Status: Confirmed recovery of Oreshnik missile fragments; linked to long-range strikes
Ukraine's SBU plays dual roles: intelligence operations and forensic analysis of Russian weapon systems.
Timeline
US and Russia agree to resume military dialogue after Abu Dhabi talks
Diplomacy
Hotlines reestablished following US-brokered peace discussions; Ukraine secures prisoner exchange of 150 servicemen amid Zelenskyy's call for security guarantees.
Ukraine strikes Oreshnik missile production infrastructure in Russia
Strike
Defense Forces confirm long-range hits on facilities linked to Oreshnik IRBM amid ongoing drone campaign.
Russia launches record 521-drone/missile barrage before Abu Dhabi talks
Strike
Largest single attack of war with 450+ drones and 70+ missiles targets energy infrastructure; Zelenskyy urges more air defenses amid blackouts.
Moscow court holds closed preliminary hearing in Russia vs Euroclear lawsuit
Legal
Russia seeks $232B over frozen assets; judge seals proceedings at Central Bank request amid EU loan debates.
Russia rejects European peacekeeping plan as 'axis of war'
Statement
Moscow called UK-France peacekeeping proposal dangerous; vowed to treat any such units as legitimate military targets.
Russia deploys Oreshnik missile against Lviv region
Strike
First Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile use in over a year; SBU confirmed fragments recovered from Lviv strike.
Massive 242-drone Russian strike hits Kyiv in freezing weather
Strike
Russia launched 242 drones and 36 missiles at Ukraine; Kyiv bore brunt with 4 dead, 19 injured, water and power disruptions during extreme cold.
Zelenskyy says US security guarantee text ready for Trump finalization
Diplomacy
Ukrainian president announced bilateral security guarantee document is essentially ready for highest-level finalization with incoming Trump administration.
Western allies agree Ukraine security guarantees framework
Diplomacy
U.S.-led monitoring mechanism and European multinational peacekeeping force agreed after Paris talks; UK-France to establish military hubs in Ukraine post-ceasefire.
Russia launches 205+ drones at Ukraine; million lose power
Strike
New Year attack targeted energy infrastructure in seven regions; Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk hit hardest, cutting power to ~1M people.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian energy sites on New Year's Eve
Air War
Drones hit energy infrastructure and homes across Krasnodar region; oil refinery and dock struck in Tuapse, 2 injured.
Putin claims Russia seized 5,100+ sq km of Ukraine in 2025
Statement
Year-end messaging emphasized momentum; Putin claimed half of Lyman and all of Vovchansk in Kharkiv region, though ISW estimated max 7% Lyman control.
EU approves €105B Ukraine loan without using frozen Russian assets
Money Moves
EU leaders chose market borrowing over controversial loan backed by Russian reserves after Belgian PM rejected plan as legally risky to Euroclear.
Ukraine claims destruction of Kupiansk infiltration pipeline
Strike
Ukraine's 429th Drone Regiment released video showing destruction of a pipeline Russia used to move troops into Kupiansk.
Zelensky visits Kupiansk as Ukraine claims an encirclement
Battlefield
Ukraine said it retook northern districts and cut supply lines, trapping Russian troops in the city center.
Russia’s central bank sues Euroclear as EU weighs asset-backed Ukraine financing
Money Moves
Moscow called any use of its frozen assets illegal and opened a legal front against Euroclear.
NATO messaging hardens as drone war widens
Statement
NATO’s secretary general warned the threat could extend beyond Ukraine, pressing allies toward urgency.
Russia reports 287 drones shot down; Moscow airports disrupted
Air War
Russia said air defenses downed drones across many regions, including near Moscow, amid flight restrictions.
Ukraine confirms strikes on Russian chemical plants tied to explosives
Strike
Ukraine’s unmanned forces said drones hit plants in Novgorod and Smolensk regions producing key inputs.
Russia claims it captured “Lyman” in Kharkiv region
Battlefield
Russian state-linked reporting cited the defense ministry saying Lyman fell; independent confirmation was limited.
Mass strike night: drones and missiles slam Ukrainian infrastructure
Strike
Ukraine reported a huge overnight attack wave hitting infrastructure, with energy a main target.
Russia signals a winter push with bold capture claims
Battlefield
Russia claimed major gains in the east, feeding a momentum narrative as winter began.
Scenarios
1
Russia Turns Kharkiv Pressure Into a Winter Breakthrough
Discussed by: ISW/criticalthreats assessments and daily reporting from Reuters and regional outlets
Russia keeps attacking in narrow corridors where weather and manpower can blunt Ukrainian drone defenses, then amplifies small gains as strategic collapse. The trigger is sustained Russian pressure around Kharkiv and Donetsk logistics nodes—plus Ukraine forced to prioritize air defense for cities over the front. This ends with Kupiansk destabilized again and new “liberation” claims rolled into bargaining demands.
2
Ukraine Holds the Line—and Makes Russia’s Rear the New Front
Discussed by: Reuters battlefield reporting, Ukrainian official statements, and coverage of Russian air-defense strain
Ukraine stabilizes key ground nodes (especially Kupiansk) while scaling the drone campaign from refineries toward chemicals, platforms, and military-linked industry. The trigger is repeatable strike success—fires, outages, halted production—combined with visible Russian disruption (airport shutdowns, forced redeployments of air defenses). Russia responds with harsher strikes on Ukrainian energy, but the political cost of “rear vulnerability” becomes permanent.
3
Europe Weaponizes Frozen Russian Assets; Russia Retaliates in Courts and Seizures
Discussed by: Reuters, AP, and European economic policy debate around Euroclear protections
The EU moves from freezing to leveraging—using immobilized Russian assets to back larger, longer-term Ukraine financing. The trigger is a formal EU plan with legal shielding for Euroclear and other institutions. Russia escalates with lawsuits, pressure on Western firms still exposed in Russia, and selective asset seizures, turning sanctions enforcement into a rolling financial tit-for-tat that runs alongside the drone war.
4
Ceasefire Collapses Under Oreshnik Shadow and Peacekeeping Stalemate
Discussed by: Analysis from Russia Matters, Moscow Times coverage of Russian rejection of peacekeeping proposals
Russia's deployment of Oreshnik missiles and explicit threats against Western peacekeepers create impossible conditions for ceasefire implementation. Moscow demands Donbas territorial concessions that Kyiv cannot accept; Western guarantees stall without consensus on enforcement. Russia uses talks as cover for consolidating winter gains while rejecting monitoring mechanisms. The diplomatic window closes as both sides conclude the other is negotiating in bad faith, triggering renewed military escalation through spring 2026.
5
Trump Pressures Zelenskyy Into 'Frozen Conflict' Accepting Temporary Territorial Losses
Discussed by: Washington Post opinion analysis, reporting on Trump-Zelenskyy dynamics and security guarantee negotiations
Trump finalizes security guarantees but conditions military aid on Ukraine accepting de facto partition: Russia keeps current holdings, demilitarized zones monitored by European (not NATO) forces, no formal Ukrainian NATO membership timeline. Zelenskyy faces choice between losing Western support or accepting 'Korea-style' frozen conflict. Key trigger is Trump threatening to cut aid if Ukraine rejects terms. European allies provide guarantees but cannot replace U.S. military assistance volume, forcing Kyiv's hand despite domestic opposition to territorial concessions.
Historical Context
Battle of Lyman (2022): Capture, then sudden reversal
2022-05 to 2022-10
What Happened
Russia captured Lyman during its 2022 offensive, then lost it months later after Ukraine’s counteroffensive momentum shifted the map fast. Lyman became a symbol of how “done deals” on the ground can snap back when logistics fail and pressure concentrates.
Outcome
Short Term
Ukraine retook Lyman, puncturing Russia’s narrative of irreversible gains.
Long Term
Lyman stayed a recurring flashpoint tied to rail hubs and Donbas approaches.
Why It's Relevant Today
It’s the cautionary tale behind every new “capture” claim: control can be temporary.
Winter energy campaign against Ukraine
2022-10 to 2023-03 (recurring in later winters)
What Happened
Russia used missiles and drones to target Ukraine’s power and heating systems, aiming to freeze civilians and strain governance. Ukraine adapted with dispersion, repairs, and air-defense layering, but each winter became a test of endurance.
Outcome
Short Term
Blackouts and damage were severe, but Ukraine avoided systemic collapse.
Long Term
Energy infrastructure became a standing battlefield, not a one-off target set.
Why It's Relevant Today
Today’s drone escalation is a continuation of winter-as-weapon—now hitting both directions.
Deep-strike drone normalization (2023–2025)
2023-01 to 2025-12
What Happened
What began as sporadic drone hits evolved into campaigns: refineries, depots, airfields, and now industrial inputs like chemicals and offshore platforms. Air defense became a national economic factor, not just a military one.
Outcome
Short Term
Both sides learned to live with frequent rear-area attacks and disruption.
Long Term
The war expanded into a persistent contest over production, repair capacity, and investor confidence.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 287-drone wave is less an anomaly than a marker of a new baseline.
