Overview
At 2:01 a.m. on January 3, 2026, U.S. helicopters touched down at Venezuela's presidential compound in Caracas. Special forces seized President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, loaded them onto the USS Iwo Jima, and flew them to New York to face narcoterrorism charges. The operation—codenamed Absolute Resolve—deployed over 150 aircraft in coordinated strikes across northern Venezuela. It killed more than 80 people, including 32 Cuban military personnel. On January 5, Maduro appeared in Manhattan federal court for arraignment before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, facing four counts including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation. Trump declared America would "run" Venezuela until a safe transition occurs, prioritizing oil infrastructure repair over immediate democracy.
The raid triggered a global firestorm. The UN Security Council convened an emergency session on January 5 at Colombia's request, with China and Russia backing the call. Chinese President Xi Jinping condemned "unilateral hegemonic bullying" in his first public comments since the operation. Secretary-General António Guterres warned the operation sets "a dangerous precedent" for international order. Brazil's Lula called it an "unacceptable" affront to sovereignty. Trump's administration is working to establish a "pliant interim government" with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who publicly vowed Venezuela would never be "the colony of another empire" but later struck a more conciliatory tone. The legal questions pale beside the practical ones: Who governs Venezuela now? Will this spark wider conflict with Russia, China, or Iran? And did Trump just hand himself an Iraq-sized quagmire?
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The body responsible for maintaining international peace—now facing its biggest sovereignty crisis in decades.
The "Cartel of the Suns"—named for insignias on Venezuelan generals' uniforms—that the U.S. claims Maduro commanded.
Timeline
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UN Security Council Emergency Session Convenes
DiplomaticCouncil meets to address U.S. operation under 'Threats to international peace and security' agenda.
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Maduro Arraigned in Manhattan Federal Court
LegalMaduro and wife Cilia Flores appear before Judge Alvin Hellerstein on narco-terrorism charges; both detained at Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn pending trial.
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Xi Jinping Condemns 'Unilateral Hegemonic Bullying'
DiplomaticChinese President Xi makes first public comments on Venezuela operation, warning that "unilateral hegemonic bullying is severely impacting the international order" without naming U.S. directly.
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Classified Congressional Briefing Scheduled
PoliticalTrump administration officials including Defense Secretary Hegseth, AG Bondi, Secretary of State Rubio, and CIA Director Ratcliffe scheduled to brief select bipartisan lawmakers on Venezuela operation.
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Trump Administration Details Governance Plans
StatementAdministration reveals plans to establish "pliant interim government," prioritize oil infrastructure repair over immediate democracy; U.S. oil companies to invest billions in Venezuelan oil fields.
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Operation Absolute Resolve Begins
MilitaryOver 150 U.S. aircraft strike northern Venezuela; helicopters land at presidential compound at 2:01 a.m.
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Maduro Captured and Flown to USS Iwo Jima
MilitarySpecial forces seize Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores; 80+ killed including 32 Cuban military personnel.
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Maduro Arrives in New York
LegalAttorney General Pam Bondi unseals superseding indictment; Maduro held for Monday arraignment in Manhattan.
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Venezuela's Supreme Court Names Rodríguez President
PoliticalCourt orders Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume presidency; she vows Venezuela won't be a colony.
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Trump Declares U.S. Will 'Run' Venezuela
StatementPresident announces America will govern Venezuela temporarily; dismisses opposition leader Machado.
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Guterres Condemns 'Dangerous Precedent'
StatementUN Secretary-General states U.S. violated international law; calls for respect of UN Charter.
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Colombia, China, Russia Request UN Meeting
DiplomaticThree nations formally request emergency Security Council session; Venezuela also submits request.
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Trump Announces Imminent Strikes
StatementPresident publicly declares U.S. military will conduct operations inside Venezuela within hours.
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Trump Announces Oil Tanker Blockade
EscalationPresident accuses Venezuela of stealing U.S. oil; Coast Guard begins seizing tankers carrying Venezuelan crude.
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U.S. Begins Strikes on Drug Boats
MilitaryTrump authorizes over twenty lethal strikes on alleged trafficking vessels in escalating pressure campaign.
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U.S. Raises Bounty to $50 Million
EscalationTrump increases reward for Maduro's capture and begins Caribbean military buildup with 15,000 personnel.
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Trump Designates Cartel as Terrorist Group
PolicyTrump labels Cartel de Los Soles a Foreign Terrorist Organization, creating legal framework for military force.
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U.S. Recognizes González as President-Elect
DiplomaticBiden administration recognizes opposition candidate Edmundo González despite Maduro remaining in power.
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Maduro Claims Victory in Disputed Election
PoliticalOpposition evidence shows González won by two-to-one margin; Maduro's electoral council declares him winner.
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U.S. Indicts Maduro on Narcoterrorism Charges
LegalJustice Department charges Maduro and 14 officials with leading Cartel de Los Soles to traffic cocaine.
Scenarios
Venezuela Descends Into Civil War
Discussed by: Congressional Democrats, international law scholars, Colombia's government
Delcy Rodríguez maintains control in Caracas with military backing while the U.S. attempts to install a transition government. Venezuela fragments into competing factions backed by external powers—Russia and China arm Rodríguez loyalists, while the U.S. supports opposition forces. Colombian borders are overwhelmed by refugees. Cuban and Russian military advisors escalate involvement. What Trump imagined as a surgical strike becomes a multi-year quagmire resembling Iraq or Libya, with no clear exit strategy and mounting American casualties.
Negotiated Transition to González Government
Discussed by: Republican supporters of the operation, some Venezuelan opposition figures
Under intense diplomatic pressure and with military commanders calculating their options, Delcy Rodríguez agrees to step aside. Edmundo González returns from exile to lead a transitional government recognized by the U.S., EU, and most of Latin America. The opposition leader María Corina Machado plays a supporting role. Free elections are scheduled within months. Maduro faces trial in New York while Venezuela begins rebuilding with international aid. This outcome requires Venezuelan military cooperation, which is far from guaranteed.
Rodríguez Consolidates Power, U.S. Loses Leverage
Discussed by: Foreign policy realists, observers of the Rodríguez defiance
The Venezuelan military closes ranks around Delcy Rodríguez, viewing Trump's threats as imperialism. Russia and China provide diplomatic cover and economic support. Regional powers condemn the operation, isolating the U.S. Trump's declaration that America will "run" Venezuela proves hollow—he has no mechanism to govern from offshore and no appetite for full invasion. Rodríguez becomes a symbol of resistance to American intervention. The operation succeeds tactically in capturing Maduro but fails strategically, leaving Venezuela more hostile and a precedent for lawless interventions established.
International Coalition Forces U.S. Withdrawal
Discussed by: UN officials, Brazil's Lula, Mexico's government, international law experts
The Security Council session galvanizes opposition to the operation. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and others threaten sanctions or regional isolation of the U.S. The Organization of American States condemns the invasion. European allies privately pressure Trump. Facing economic and diplomatic costs, with no clear path to installing a friendly government, Trump declares victory—"we got Maduro"—and withdraws, leaving Venezuela's internal politics unresolved. Maduro is tried in New York, but the geopolitical precedent haunts American credibility for years.
Historical Context
U.S. Invasion of Panama (1989)
December 20, 1989 – January 31, 1990What Happened
George H.W. Bush ordered 27,000 U.S. troops to invade Panama and capture Manuel Noriega, who faced drug trafficking charges. The operation killed hundreds of Panamanians and destroyed neighborhoods. Noriega surrendered after hiding in the Vatican embassy and was flown to Miami for trial. The U.S. had 10,000 troops already stationed in Panama, making logistics simpler.
Outcome
Short term: Noriega was convicted and imprisoned; Panama installed a U.S.-backed government.
Long term: The invasion remains controversial as a violation of sovereignty, though Panama eventually stabilized. Noriega served 17 years in U.S. prison before dying in Panama in 2017.
Why It's Relevant
Trump administration officials explicitly compared Maduro to Noriega. But Venezuela is larger, more resource-rich, backed by Russia and China, and the U.S. has no forces pre-positioned there—making this operation far more complex.
Iraq War and Regime Change (2003-2011)
March 20, 2003 – December 18, 2011What Happened
The U.S. invaded Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein, citing weapons of mass destruction that didn't exist. The invasion was swift; Hussein was captured in December 2003. But America had no plan for governance. Sectarian civil war erupted. Iran gained influence. The war cost trillions of dollars, killed hundreds of thousands, and destabilized the region.
Outcome
Short term: Hussein was executed in 2006; Iraq held elections but violence continued.
Long term: ISIS emerged from the chaos. U.S. troops withdrew in 2011, returned in 2014 to fight ISIS, and remain today. Iraq is politically fractured and aligned with Iran.
Why It's Relevant
Congressional Democrats and foreign policy critics warn Venezuela could become "Trump's Iraq"—a quick military victory followed by years of costly occupation with no exit strategy and unintended consequences across the region.
U.S. Recognition of Juan Guaidó (2019-2023)
January 23, 2019 – January 5, 2023What Happened
After Maduro's fraudulent 2018 re-election, the U.S. and nearly 60 countries recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president. Guaidó took the oath of office and received international backing. But he never controlled Venezuela. Maduro remained in power with military support. Guaidó's parallel government faded into irrelevance.
Outcome
Short term: Guaidó led mass protests and gained diplomatic recognition but no actual power.
Long term: By 2023, the opposition coalition dissolved Guaidó's interim government. The recognition strategy failed completely. Maduro outlasted it.
Why It's Relevant
The Guaidó episode proved that international recognition without power on the ground means nothing in Venezuela. Trump's plan to "run" Venezuela from Washington while working with Maduro's vice president or sidelining the opposition leader María Corina Machado risks repeating this failure—but with military force added to the mix.