Overview
US special forces landed in Caracas at 2:01 a.m. on January 3, 2026, seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from his compound, and flew him to New York to face drug trafficking charges. Seven American service members were injured in the raid—two still recovering from gunshot and shrapnel wounds—while US officials estimate at least 75 people died, including 32 Cuban intelligence personnel and 23 Venezuelan security officers. Four days later, Navy SEALs boarded two Russian-flagged oil tankers—the Marinera after a weekslong Atlantic chase, the Sophia in Caribbean waters—enforcing a naval quarantine Trump had imposed on Venezuela's oil exports.
What started as counternarcotics patrols became the first forcible removal of a Latin American head of state by US troops since Manuel Noriega in 1989. Now Venezuela sits under effective American control: Maduro pleaded not guilty on January 5 and his lawyers are mounting a sovereign immunity defense, his vice president runs the government under US supervision while opposition leaders demand democratic transition, and Washington is negotiating to seize 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. Russia and China condemned the operation at the UN. Most Latin American governments issued joint denunciations. Senate Democrats are pushing a war powers resolution to block further military action. The question isn't whether this violated international law—it clearly did. The question is what happens when Venezuela's oil wells stay broken, its political factions start fighting, and the US discovers it owns a failed state.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
Geographic combatant command responsible for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Venezuela's state oil monopoly sitting on the world's largest proven reserves but crippled by decades of mismanagement.
Venezuela's strongest international backer, now watching its ally removed by force.
Major creditor and oil buyer for Venezuela; condemning US action without hard-power response.
Socialist ally of Venezuela whose military and intelligence presence in Caracas was exposed by the January 3 raid.
Timeline
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US Seizes Russian-Flagged Tankers Marinera and Sophia
EnforcementNavy SEALs board Marinera in North Atlantic after weekslong chase; Coast Guard apprehends Sophia in Caribbean.
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Venezuela Agrees to Hand Over Oil to US
EconomicTrump announces deal for 30-50 million barrels to be sold at market prices.
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Pentagon Confirms Seven US Troops Injured in Raid
MilitaryPentagon reports seven service members injured during Operation Absolute Resolve; two still recovering from gunshot wounds, five have recovered. Officials call low casualty count remarkable.
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Rubio Unveils Three-Phase Venezuela Plan to Congress
PolicySecretary of State details stabilization (oil quarantine and sales), recovery (market access and prisoner releases), and transition phases in classified briefing to Senate and House.
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Trump Tasks Rubio to Lead Transition
PolicySecretary of State assigned to oversee Venezuela political and economic reforms.
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Cuba Releases Names of 32 Killed Officers
DiplomaticCuban government publishes names, ranks, and ages of 32 military and intelligence personnel killed in raid; declares two days of national mourning.
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Venezuela Reports 23 Security Officers Killed
MilitaryVenezuelan government confirms at least 23 Venezuelan security personnel died in US operation; total confirmed military deaths reach 55.
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Democrats Announce War Powers Resolution Push
PoliticalSenate Democrats led by Tim Kaine and Chuck Schumer pledge vote on resolution requiring congressional authorization for further Venezuela military action.
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Supreme Court Orders Rodríguez as Interim President
PoliticalVenezuelan high court directs Maduro's VP to assume executive powers; military backs her.
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Maduro and Wife Arraigned in Manhattan
LegalBoth plead not guilty to narcoterrorism charges in federal court.
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UN Security Council Emergency Session
DiplomaticRussia and China request meeting; members condemn US unilateral action.
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Maduro's Lawyers Signal Sovereign Immunity Defense
LegalDefense attorney Barry Pollack announces plans to challenge legality of arrest, arguing Maduro has head-of-state immunity and was subject to military abduction.
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Judge Sets March 17 for Next Maduro Hearing
LegalFederal Judge Alvin Hellerstein schedules next court date after Maduro and wife plead not guilty to all charges.
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Machado and González Call for Democratic Transition
PoliticalOpposition leaders thank Trump but insist removal insufficient; Machado calls for González to assume presidency, González demands political prisoner releases.
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Rubio Clarifies US Won't Directly Govern
StatementSecretary of State walks back Trump claim, says quarantine will pressure policy changes.
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Trump Dismisses Machado as Unfit to Lead
StatementPresident says Nobel laureate opposition leader lacks support and respect in Venezuela.
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Latin American Bloc Issues Joint Condemnation
DiplomaticBrazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Spain, and Uruguay release statement expressing 'profound concern and firm rejection' of unilateral US military action.
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Operation Absolute Resolve: Maduro Captured
MilitaryUS helicopters land at presidential compound; special forces seize Maduro and wife, transport to USS Iwo Jima. Strikes kill 80+.
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Trump: "We Are Going to Run the Country"
StatementPresident announces US will govern Venezuela until proper transition completed.
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Russia Files Diplomatic Request to Stop Pursuit
DiplomaticKremlin asks US to halt chase of Russian-flagged Marinera.
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Trump Announces Venezuela Strikes
StatementPresident publicly declares US military will conduct operations inside Venezuela.
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Russia Notifies US of Vessel Reflagging
DiplomaticMoscow informs Washington that Bella 1 renamed to Marinera under Russian flag.
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Bella 1 Changes to Russian Flag Mid-Voyage
EvasionTanker switches from Guyanese to Russian registration while being pursued.
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First Attempted Boarding of Bella 1
EnforcementCoast Guard tries to board Bella 1 in Caribbean; vessel refuses and flees.
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Venezuela Oil Quarantine Begins
MilitaryUS announces naval blockade on sanctioned tankers; Coast Guard starts boarding vessels.
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Maduro Designated Foreign Terrorist
PolicyTrump administration labels Maduro and government allies as members of foreign terrorist organization.
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Operation Southern Spear Formally Named
MilitaryDefense Secretary Hegseth announces official campaign against Venezuelan drug networks.
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Machado Wins Nobel Peace Prize
PoliticalOpposition leader awarded Nobel; Trump speaks with her same day, only known contact.
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First Strikes on Drug-Trafficking Vessels
MilitaryUS begins bombing alleged narcotics boats in Caribbean waters.
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US Military Buildup Begins
MilitaryTrump orders three warships to South America; Operation Southern Spear escalates with Caribbean deployments.
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Trump Designates Cartel of the Suns as Terrorist Group
PolicyAdministration labels Maduro-linked drug network as FTO; secret order authorizes military force against cartels.
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Maduro Inaugurated for Third Term
PoliticalDespite widespread international condemnation and fraud allegations, Maduro sworn in.
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González Flees to Spain
PoliticalAfter Venezuelan arrest warrant, opposition candidate granted asylum in Spain.
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Maduro Claims Victory in Disputed Election
PoliticalOpposition candidate González wins by credible counts, but electoral council declares Maduro winner. US recognizes González as president-elect.
Scenarios
Venezuela Becomes Another Libya: Fractured State, Endless Civil War
Discussed by: UN officials, international law scholars, anti-interventionists citing Libya 2011 precedent
The optimistic transition collapses within months. Rodríguez can't govern without legitimacy. The military fractures into competing factions. Regional militias seize oil infrastructure. Venezuela descends into the chaos that followed Gaddafi's fall—Libya's fragility score jumped 28 points over a decade, and Libyans ended up "poorer, in greater peril" than under the dictator. The US finds itself responsible for a failed state it can't fix and won't occupy, while 7 million more Venezuelans flee and oil production stays broken for another generation.
Rodríguez Consolidates Power, Becomes US Client State Manager
Discussed by: Brookings analysts, Trump administration officials describing pragmatic stabilization strategy
Rodríguez proves more capable than expected. She quietly sidelines chavista hardliners, negotiates US oil company returns, and maintains order through the existing security apparatus. Washington gets what it wanted: a Venezuela that doesn't traffic drugs, doesn't host Iran and Hezbollah, and sells oil to American refineries. Democracy remains a "long-term aspiration" while Rubio's "two to three months" stretch into years of semi-authoritarian stability. Think Egypt after the Arab Spring—not the outcome anyone promised, but functional enough that Washington stops caring.
International Backlash Forces US Withdrawal, Maduro Returns
Discussed by: Latin American governments, UN experts, legal scholars challenging Operation Absolute Resolve's legality
The backlash intensifies. Brazil, Mexico, Colombia form a bloc demanding US withdrawal. A federal court rules Maduro immune from prosecution as a sitting head of state, echoing the Noriega precedent but reaching a different conclusion. Domestically, the operation becomes politically toxic as casualties mount and costs spiral. Trump, facing pressure and lacking an exit strategy, negotiates a face-saving withdrawal. Maduro returns to Caracas triumphant, more entrenched than before, having survived what he'll call a yankee kidnapping. The precedent established: even successful US interventions can be reversed.
Democratic Transition: González Returns, Real Elections Held
Discussed by: Opposition coalition, some congressional Democrats, democracy promotion advocates
Public pressure forces a genuine transition. The opposition mobilizes, international observers arrive, and actual elections happen within a year. González returns from exile. Machado campaigns freely. Venezuelans get to choose their government for the first time since Chávez. The messy reconstruction begins—oil production slowly recovers with international investment, millions of refugees return, democratic institutions rebuild. It takes decades and billions, but Venezuela joins the community of functioning states. This is what Washington claimed to want. Nothing about the current plan suggests it's what Washington is actually building.
Federal Court Rules Maduro Has Sovereign Immunity, Forced Release
Discussed by: Defense attorneys, international law scholars citing head-of-state immunity precedents
Maduro's legal team successfully argues that unlike Noriega—who was not the sitting president when captured—Maduro retains sovereign immunity as Venezuela's de facto head of state regardless of US non-recognition. A federal judge rules the military abduction violated both international and domestic law. The court orders Maduro's release, creating a constitutional crisis: Trump refuses, appeals reach the Supreme Court, and the case becomes a landmark test of presidential war powers versus judicial authority. If Maduro wins release, he returns to Venezuela triumphant, the intervention collapses, and US credibility suffers lasting damage.
Historical Context
US Invasion of Panama (1989)
December 1989 - January 1990What Happened
The US had 10,000 troops already stationed in Panama when George H.W. Bush ordered them to remove dictator Manuel Noriega, who faced drug trafficking charges. Operation Just Cause lasted weeks, killed hundreds, captured Noriega, and installed a government friendly to Washington. The legal framework was identical: protect citizens, restore democracy after disputed elections, fight drugs.
Outcome
Short term: Noriega prosecuted in US courts, lost sovereign immunity claim. Panama transitioned to elected government.
Long term: Panama stabilized and prospered. Set precedent that smaller states could be reshaped forcibly if framed persuasively and executed decisively.
Why It's Relevant
Venezuela is bigger, farther from US bases, and intervening now splits Congress where Panama had bipartisan support. But the legal playbook and public justifications are nearly identical.
Libya Intervention (2011)
March - October 2011What Happened
NATO launched airstrikes to protect civilians during Libya's civil war, flying 26,500 sorties over eight months. The mission ended with Muammar Gaddafi killed and his government overthrown. Russia and China abstained on the UN resolution; Venezuela's Chávez called Gaddafi a martyr. The intervention had multilateral cover the Venezuela operation lacks.
Outcome
Short term: Gaddafi's government fell. Rebels took power promising democracy.
Long term: Libya remained divided in festering civil war. Fragility score increased 28 points over a decade. Libyans became poorer and faced more repression than under Gaddafi.
Why It's Relevant
The cautionary tale for Venezuela. Removing a dictator is easier than building what comes after. If Rodríguez can't govern and no one credible replaces her, Venezuela could spiral into the same permanent chaos.
Iraq War and Regime Change (2003-2011)
March 2003 - December 2011What Happened
The US invaded Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein, claiming threats from weapons of mass destruction that didn't exist. The invasion succeeded quickly; the occupation collapsed into sectarian violence, insurgency, and civil war. Hundreds of thousands died. Reconstruction cost trillions.
Outcome
Short term: Saddam removed, tried, and executed. US attempted to rebuild Iraqi government and security forces.
Long term: Iraq achieved fragile stability after years of bloodshed. ISIS emerged from the chaos. American credibility damaged for a generation.
Why It's Relevant
The grandest example of assuming military victory equals political success. Venezuela's oil infrastructure needs $180 billion and a decade to rebuild. The US hasn't committed to either, suggesting it may be repeating the mistake of assuming regime change solves the underlying problem.