Big Chalk Analytics

Money Moves

Tracking trading-down behavior and budget stress across income spectrum

American retail sales went nowhere in December, the weakest holiday shopping finish since 2018. The Commerce Department reported $735 billion in sales—unchanged from November—while economists expected 0.4% growth. Eight of thirteen retail categories declined, with furniture and auto sales hit hardest by tariff-driven price increases. The data, delayed more than a month by a 43-day government shutdown, sent money markets repricing Federal Reserve rate cuts from two to three for 2026. New analysis from Bank of America reveals the structural fracture runs deeper than initially understood: in January, higher-income households' spending grew 2.5% year-over-year, while middle-income households managed just 1% and lower-income households only 0.3%.

Updated Feb 18