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Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

U.S. federal regulatory agency

Appears in 2 stories

Stories

Prediction markets enter institutional finance

Money Moves

Reversed course from restricting prediction markets to suing states that oppose them; pursuing formal rulemaking after receiving more than 1,500 public comments by the April 30 deadline

Kalshi closed a $1 billion funding round on May 7 at a $22 billion valuation, led by Coatue Management with Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, IVP, and ARK Invest. Annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, up from $52 billion six months earlier, and Kalshi now accounts for more than 90% of U.S. prediction market activity.

Updated May 31

Prediction markets collide with national security

Rule Changes

Drafting new prediction market rules

Prediction markets have existed in legal limbo since 2003, when U.S. senators killed a Pentagon program that would have let people bet on terrorist attacks. An Israeli reservist and civilian face prosecution for using classified military intelligence to profit $150,000 on Polymarket, placing suspiciously accurate bets on the June 2025 Israel-Iran war — a first.

Updated May 29