Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan hits a critical test over who governs and who disarms
Force in Play
Israel’s government prosecuted the Gaza war following Hamas’s October 2023 attacks and now must balance hostage recovery, security guarantees and domestic politics with external pressure to fully implement the ceasefire and accept new governance arrangements in Gaza.
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Conflict party; controls Israeli military presence in Gaza and must approve withdrawal and terms of international deployment
After more than two years of devastating war triggered by Hamas's attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began on October 10, 2025 has paused large-scale hostilities in Gaza but remains deeply fragile, with at least 460 Palestinians killed and over 1,200 injured since the truce took effect. On January 14, 2026, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff announced the launch of phase two of the President's 20‑point peace plan, establishing a 15‑member Palestinian technocratic committee led by Ali Shaath, a former Palestinian Authority deputy minister, to assume day-to-day governance of Gaza. Nickolay Mladenov, former UN Middle East envoy, was appointed director-general of the Board of Peace, the international transitional authority mandated by the UN Security Council to oversee Gaza's demilitarization, reconstruction and political transition. On January 21, the Board announced a concrete 3-5 month timeline for disarmament, with Hamas expected to receive an ultimatum demanding surrender of all weapons. Hamas announced on January 12 that it will dissolve its government once the new Palestinian body takes over, calling the decision 'clear and final,' but has refused to surrender its small arms, stating it will only fully disarm once a Palestinian state is established.
Updated Jan 26
