Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan hits a critical test over who governs and who disarms
Force in Play
Phase two launches with technocratic body and 3-5 month disarmament timeline, but 19-nation Board charter draws criticism and key allies decline participation
Phase two launches with technocratic body and 3-5 month disarmament timeline, but 19-nation Board charter draws criticism and key allies decline participation
Hamas's October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel triggered a war that lasted more than two years. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect October 10, 2025. At least 460 Palestinians have been killed and over 1,200 injured since the truce began.
On January 14, 2026, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff announced phase two of the President's 20-point peace plan. It establishes a 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee led by Ali Shaath, a former Palestinian Authority deputy minister, to run day-to-day governance of Gaza. Nickolay Mladenov, former UN Middle East envoy, was named director-general of the Board of Peace — the UN Security Council's transitional authority to oversee Gaza's demilitarization, reconstruction, and political transition.
On January 21, the Board set a 3-5 month disarmament timeline; Hamas is expected to receive an ultimatum to surrender all weapons. Hamas announced January 12 it will dissolve its government once the new Palestinian body takes over, calling the decision 'clear and final.' But it has refused to surrender its small arms and will fully disarm only after a Palestinian state is established.
On January 22, Trump signed the Board of Peace charter at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Only 19 countries signed — UAE, Pakistan, Egypt, Hungary, and Argentina among them. France, Germany, the UK, Canada, and Italy declined, calling the charter a 'pay-to-play club' that lacks Gaza-specific focus and doesn't match the UN-mandated Gaza governance mechanism.
Israel opposes moving forward without complete Hamas disarmament and the return of hostage Ran Gvili's remains. US officials confirmed the International Stabilization Force will not fight Hamas directly. Gaza authorities have documented over 1,300 ceasefire violations since October 2025; children account for 40% of deaths.
The U.S. estimates Gaza reconstruction will cost over $50 billion. On January 25, US envoys Witkoff and Kushner held 'constructive' talks with Netanyahu on phase two implementation. Israeli strikes killed three Palestinians that same day.
Gaza authorities cited by mediators say more than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began in October 2023, underscoring the conflict's human toll and pressure for a durable settlement.
1,200+
Israelis killed in initial attacks and war
Roughly 1,200 Israelis have been killed since Hamas and allied militants launched their October 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel and the ensuing war began.
460+
Palestinians killed since October 10 ceasefire
At least 460 Palestinians have been killed and 1,236 injured since the October 10, 2025 ceasefire took effect, with children accounting for about 40% of deaths, according to Gaza's health ministry as of mid-January 2026.
1,300+
Documented Israeli ceasefire violations
Gaza authorities documented over 1,300 Israeli violations of the ceasefire from October 10, 2025 to January 20, 2026, through air attacks, artillery, and direct shootings, undermining the fragile truce.
47 / ~2,000
Hostages released vs. Palestinian prisoners freed
Under the first phase of the October 10, 2025 truce, Hamas released 47 captives while Israel freed about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. One hostage's remains (Ran Gvili) have not been returned, blocking full phase one completion.
13–0 (2 abstentions)
UN Security Council vote on Trump Gaza plan
The UN Security Council backed the U.S.-drafted resolution endorsing Trump's Gaza plan—with 13 votes in favour and none against, and Russia and China abstaining—authorising the Board of Peace and an International Stabilization Force.
19 / 62
Countries signed Board charter vs. countries invited
Only 19 countries signed the Board of Peace charter at the January 22 Davos ceremony, despite 62 invitations sent. Key Western allies France, Germany, UK, Canada, and Italy declined, raising questions about international legitimacy.
3-5 months
Disarmament timeline announced
The Board of Peace set a 3-5 month timeline for complete Gaza disarmament on January 21, 2026, with Hamas expected to receive an ultimatum to surrender all weapons, though enforcement mechanisms remain unclear.
$50B+
Estimated Gaza reconstruction cost
The United Nations estimates that reconstructing Gaza will cost over $50 billion, underscoring the massive scale of destruction and the financial challenge facing the Board of Peace and international donors.
January 14, 2026
Phase Two launch date
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff announced the launch of phase two on January 14, 2026, one day before Trump's promised January 15 Board of Peace unveiling, establishing the Palestinian technocratic committee and beginning the demilitarization process.
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26 events
Latest: January 22nd, 2026 · 4 months ago
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January 2026
Trump signs Board of Peace charter at Davos; only 19 countries join
LatestDiplomacy
Trump hosted a signing ceremony for the Board of Peace founding charter on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Only 19 countries signed (including UAE, Pakistan, Egypt, Hungary, Argentina) despite 62 invitations. Key Western allies France, Germany, UK, Canada, and Italy declined participation. Critics described the charter as lacking Gaza-specific focus despite its UN mandate for Gaza governance.
Board of Peace sets 3-5 month timeline for Gaza disarmament; Hamas to receive ultimatum
Diplomacy
International bodies tasked with administering Gaza announced a 3-5 month timeline to complete disarmament of the territory. The Board of Peace is expected to present Hamas with an ultimatum demanding it surrender all weapons, not merely as a symbolic gesture, with a short deadline for response. The timeline represents the first concrete schedule for demilitarization under phase two.
Gaza authorities report over 1,300 ceasefire violations; death toll reaches 460+
Conflict
The Government Media Office in Gaza documented over 1,300 Israeli violations of the ceasefire from October 10, 2025 to January 20, 2026, through air attacks, artillery, and shootings. The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine reported 483 deaths and 1,287 injuries over the 100-day period, with children accounting for 40% of fatalities according to Gaza's Health Ministry.
Palestinian technocratic committee launches operations in Cairo
Governance
Ali Shaath's National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) launched operations from Cairo, releasing a mission statement focused on establishing security control, restoring basic services, maintaining peace, and fixing the economy. The 15-member committee was welcomed by Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and governments of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.
General Jasper Jeffers appointed Commander of International Stabilization Force
Military
The appointment of General Jasper Jeffers as Commander of the International Stabilization Force was announced, though deployment timeline and mandate remain disputed. US officials clarified the ISF will not fight Hamas directly, raising questions about enforcement mechanisms for disarmament.
U.S. launches phase two of Gaza plan; Palestinian technocratic committee formed
Diplomacy
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff announced the launch of phase two, establishing a 15-member National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) led by Ali Shaath to assume day-to-day governance. The phase focuses on 'demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction.' Egypt, Qatar and Turkey welcomed the committee's formation.
Hamas announces it will dissolve Gaza government when Palestinian body takes over
Public Statement
Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem announced the movement's decision to relinquish governmental control is 'clear and final,' instructing government agencies to prepare for transition to the technocratic committee. However, Hamas gave no timeline and continues to refuse full disarmament of fighters.
Nickolay Mladenov appointed director-general of Board of Peace
Diplomacy
Netanyahu announced that former UN Middle East peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov, a Bulgarian diplomat who served from 2015-2020, would serve as director-general of the Board of Peace. A U.S. official confirmed the appointment of Mladenov, who has been director-general of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi since 2021.
Six countries commit to Board of Peace; invitations sent to world leaders
Diplomacy
U.S. officials confirmed six countries have committed to joining the Board of Peace: Egypt, Qatar, UAE, UK, Italy and Germany. The U.S. sent invitations to additional world leaders Trump wants on the board, with the first meeting planned for the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
December 2025
Netanyahu attends Trump New Year's Eve party at Mar-a-Lago
Diplomacy
Netanyahu and his wife Sara attended Trump's New Year's Eve party at Mar-a-Lago, marking Netanyahu's fifth visit to the U.S. since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant seeking his arrest. The visit came days after their December 29 meeting on phase two implementation.
Trump-Netanyahu Mar-a-Lago meeting: Board of Peace set for January 15 unveiling, Hamas given disarmament ultimatum
Diplomacy
Trump met with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago and announced he would unveil the Board of Peace and 'day after' plan for Gaza on January 15, 2026. Trump warned Hamas would have 'hell to pay' if it didn't disarm within a 'very short period of time,' while stating Israel had 'lived up to the plan 100%' despite over 400 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire. Netanyahu raised no objections to the announcement, which officials described as a presidential decree rather than a proposal.
Palestinian death toll during ceasefire reaches 410+ as violations escalate
Conflict
At least 410 Palestinians have been killed and over 1,134 injured since the October 10, 2025 ceasefire began, according to Gaza health authorities. Israeli forces continued near-daily violations including airstrikes, artillery fire, and machine-gun attacks. A Palestinian man, Odai al-Maqadma, was shot and killed by Israeli forces east of Gaza City on December 26. Qatar and mediators have warned the ongoing violence undermines the ceasefire and threatens phase two implementation.
CENTCOM-hosted Doha conference with 45 nations fails to agree on ISF mandate
Diplomacy
U.S. Central Command convened representatives from approximately 45 Arab, Muslim, and Western states in Doha to discuss the International Stabilization Force mandate and deployment. The conference failed to reach agreement on the force's terms of reference, with Turkey notably excluded at Israel's request. No countries committed troops at the meeting, despite the U.S. goal of deploying forces by early 2026.
Italy becomes first country to commit troops to Gaza International Stabilization Force
Diplomacy
Italy told the United States it is committing to send troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, becoming the first country to make such a commitment. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani confirmed Italy's readiness to participate, citing the country's experience in complex international contexts. American officials expressed hope to recruit 5,000 troops by early 2026 and increase to 10,000 by end of 2026.
Qatar warns Gaza ceasefire is at a ‘critical moment’
Public Statement
At the Doha Forum, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said the ceasefire is at a 'critical' moment, stressing that it is not yet a full ceasefire because Israeli forces remain in Gaza, movement is restricted and the last hostage’s remains have not been recovered. Mediators highlighted continued violence and roughly 360 Palestinians killed since the truce began as signs of fragility.
Turkey insists Palestinian administration and police must come before Hamas disarmament
Public Statement
In a Reuters interview at the Doha Forum, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Hamas is prepared to relinquish governance of Gaza but that a credible Palestinian civil administration and vetted, trained, non‑Hamas police force must first be established. He called expectations that Hamas disarm in the ceasefire’s initial phase 'neither realistic nor doable', urged rapid movement to the plan’s second stage, and reaffirmed Turkey’s desire to join the international stabilisation force, even as Israel resists.
Turkey and U.S. signal progress toward lifting CAATSA sanctions
Diplomacy
On the sidelines of the Doha Forum, Fidan told Reuters he expects Turkey and the U.S. to find a way to remove CAATSA sanctions 'very soon', noting that talks have begun and expressing hope the issue will be resolved during Trump’s second term. The comments suggest that Turkey’s prospective role in Gaza stabilisation is intertwined with broader U.S.-Turkey defence negotiations.
Officials say Gaza’s international governing body will be named by year’s end
Diplomacy
An Arab official and a Western diplomat told reporters at the Doha Forum that the Board of Peace, the international body tasked with governing Gaza under the ceasefire’s next phase, would be announced by the end of 2025, along with a Palestinian technocratic committee for day-to-day administration.
Tony Blair dropped from main Board of Peace after Arab and Muslim state objections
Diplomacy
Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair was removed from the main Board of Peace following pressure from several Arab and Muslim states, according to the Financial Times. Blair is still expected to serve on an executive committee under the Board that will include Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, but will not be among the approximately 10 heads of state and monarchs on the primary governing body.
November 2025
UN Security Council endorses Trump’s Gaza plan and creates Board of Peace and ISF
UN Resolution
The UN Security Council adopted a U.S.-drafted resolution endorsing Trump’s Gaza peace plan, authorising an International Stabilization Force to secure Gaza and oversee demilitarisation, and establishing the Board of Peace as a transitional authority chaired by Trump under an initial two-year UN mandate. The vote was 13–0, with Russia and China abstaining. Hamas rejected the resolution as imposing international guardianship and demanded clearer guarantees on Palestinian rights and statehood.
Trump says international stabilisation force will deploy in Gaza ‘very soon’
Public Statement
Trump announced that a U.S.-coordinated International Stabilization Force of roughly 20,000 troops would be on the ground in Gaza 'very soon' as part of his post-war plan. A draft UN Security Council resolution authorising the force and a transitional governing body began circulating among council members and regional partners.
October 2025
Ceasefire takes effect; Civil-Military Coordination Center created
Ceasefire Implementation
Hostilities in Gaza largely paused as the first-phase ceasefire took effect. Israel pulled forces back from some areas but maintained a significant presence, while limited Israeli operations and Palestinian fire continued. U.S. Central Command formally established a Civil-Military Coordination Center to coordinate stabilisation and relief efforts and prepare for an international force.
First-phase Gaza ceasefire and exchange deal is agreed
Ceasefire Agreement
After indirect talks in Egypt, and with Trump’s public endorsement, Israel and Hamas agreed to a two‑phase deal. Phase one included a ceasefire, the release of about 20 living hostages and the remains of others within days, the freeing of around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, a partial Israeli pullback inside Gaza and increased humanitarian aid.
Hamas conditionally accepts Trump’s ceasefire and political plan
Diplomacy
Following indirect talks mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the U.S., Hamas issued a statement accepting Trump’s ceasefire proposal with conditions, agreeing in principle to release all Israeli prisoners according to a set exchange formula and to negotiate on Gaza’s future governance and its role in a unified Palestinian movement.
October 2023
Prolonged Gaza war and regional escalation
Conflict
Over the next two years, Israel’s campaign in Gaza devastated civilian infrastructure and caused massive displacement, while cross-border violence with Hezbollah escalated and international concern mounted. By late 2025, Gaza authorities and mediators estimated more than 70,000 Palestinians and about 1,200 Israelis had been killed since the war began.
Hamas launches attacks on southern Israel, sparking Gaza war
Conflict
Hamas and allied militants carried out coordinated attacks into southern Israel, killing and abducting civilians and soldiers. Israel declared a state of war and launched a major campaign in Gaza, setting off more than two years of intense fighting that killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and over a thousand Israelis.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
2006–present
UN Resolution 1701 and UNIFIL in Lebanon (2006–present)
After the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1701, calling for a full cessation of hostilities, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, the deployment of an expanded UNIFIL peacekeeping force and, crucially, the disarmament of Hezbollah and all armed groups so that only the Lebanese state would hold weapons. Despite initial calm, Hezbollah never fully withdrew from the border area nor disarmed, instead massively expanding its arsenal over subsequent years, while UNIFIL focused mainly on monitoring and de‑escalation rather than coercive disarmament.
Then
The resolution ended active hostilities in 2006 and created a buffer zone patrolled by UNIFIL and the Lebanese army, reducing immediate cross-border clashes and providing a framework for relative stability in south Lebanon.
Now
Hezbollah retained and expanded its military capabilities, demonstrating that without political will and local state capacity, international mandates to disarm non-state actors are difficult to enforce. This unresolved imbalance has contributed to renewed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, most recently in 2023–24, and shaped debates about the limits of peacekeeping forces.
Why this matters now
Resolution 1701 illustrates the challenge now facing Gaza: the international community can mandate disarmament and deploy peacekeepers, but if local actors see weapons as essential to deterrence or political leverage, and if the host state (or transitional authority) is weak, demilitarisation may never be fully realised. That experience informs scepticism about whether the International Stabilization Force and Board of Peace can actually neutralise Hamas’ military wing, echoing concerns voiced by Hamas and some analysts about the Trump plan’s enforcement gaps.
2 of 3
1999–2002
UNTAET in East Timor: International Transitional Administration and Police-Building
In 1999, after a UN-sponsored referendum in which East Timorese voted for independence from Indonesia, widespread violence by pro-Indonesian militias led the UN Security Council to establish the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET). UNTAET combined a peacekeeping force with full civil administrative authority, including responsibility for law and order, and created an international police component tasked with recruiting, training and supervising a new East Timor police service while overseeing disarmament and demobilisation of armed groups.
Then
UNTAET restored basic security, facilitated humanitarian relief and began rebuilding local institutions from scratch, including a judiciary, tax system and border controls. International police held executive authority initially, gradually transferring responsibilities to a Timorese force as training progressed.
Now
East Timor achieved formal independence in 2002, with a functioning (if fragile) state and police. However, critics argued that limited local participation and heavy international control delayed the development of indigenous political capacity and legitimacy, contributing to later internal crises.
Why this matters now
UNTAET offers a more hopeful precedent for Gaza’s Board of Peace and proposals for a vetted Palestinian police under international supervision. It shows that an international transitional authority, backed by robust peacekeeping and policing, can build new security institutions and manage a shift from conflict to independence. But it also cautions that heavy external control and technocratic administration without deep local ownership risk legitimacy deficits—paralleling Palestinian concerns that the Board of Peace and ISF may marginalise Palestinian agency.
3 of 3
1998–2010
Good Friday Agreement and IRA Decommissioning in Northern Ireland
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended decades of conflict in Northern Ireland by combining new power-sharing institutions with commitments to the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons and the 'normalisation' of security arrangements. The accord established the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) to monitor and verify disarmament and launched a far-reaching reform of policing, including replacing the Royal Ulster Constabulary with the Police Service of Northern Ireland to gain cross-community legitimacy.
Then
Implementation was slow and contested. Unionist parties demanded visible IRA decommissioning before fully embracing power-sharing, while republicans insisted on parallel political reforms and police changes. The IICD reported no actual decommissioning in 1998, and disarmament did not begin in earnest for several years.
Now
Over roughly a decade, paramilitary groups—including the Provisional IRA—eventually put weapons 'beyond use' under IICD supervision, while policing reforms gradually built a more representative and rights-focused police service. The process underscored that durable disarmament often follows credible political inclusion and trusted security institutions rather than preceding them.
Why this matters now
Northern Ireland’s experience mirrors Hakan Fidan’s argument about sequencing in Gaza: expecting a group like Hamas to disarm before seeing concrete changes in governance, policing and political prospects may be unrealistic. The Good Friday model suggests that establishing inclusive, legitimate institutions—particularly policing—and gradually building trust can make decommissioning politically feasible over time, informing debates over whether Palestinian administration and police should come before or alongside Hamas disarmament in the Trump plan.
