Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan hits a critical test over who governs and who disarms
Force in Play
Phase two launches with technocratic body and 3-5 month disarmament timeline, but 19-nation Board charter draws criticism and key allies decline participation
Phase two launches with technocratic body and 3-5 month disarmament timeline, but 19-nation Board charter draws criticism and key allies decline participation
After more than two years of devastating war triggered by Hamas's attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began on October 10, 2025 has paused large-scale hostilities in Gaza but remains deeply fragile, with at least 460 Palestinians killed and over 1,200 injured since the truce took effect. On January 14, 2026, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff announced the launch of phase two of the President's 20‑point peace plan, establishing a 15‑member Palestinian technocratic committee led by Ali Shaath, a former Palestinian Authority deputy minister, to assume day-to-day governance of Gaza. Nickolay Mladenov, former UN Middle East envoy, was appointed director-general of the Board of Peace, the international transitional authority mandated by the UN Security Council to oversee Gaza's demilitarization, reconstruction and political transition. On January 21, the Board announced a concrete 3-5 month timeline for disarmament, with Hamas expected to receive an ultimatum demanding surrender of all weapons. Hamas announced on January 12 that it will dissolve its government once the new Palestinian body takes over, calling the decision 'clear and final,' but has refused to surrender its small arms, stating it will only fully disarm once a Palestinian state is established.
The transition to phase two proceeds despite serious obstacles: On January 22, Trump signed the Board of Peace charter at the World Economic Forum in Davos, but only 19 countries signed—including UAE, Pakistan, Egypt, Hungary, and Argentina—while key Western allies France, Germany, the UK, Canada, and Italy declined to participate, citing concerns that the charter lacks Gaza-specific focus and resembles a 'pay-to-play club' rather than the UN-mandated Gaza governance mechanism. Israel opposes moving forward without complete Hamas disarmament and the return of hostage Ran Gvili's remains; US officials confirmed the International Stabilization Force will not fight Hamas directly, raising questions about enforcement of the disarmament timeline. Over 1,300 ceasefire violations have been documented by Gaza authorities since October 2025, with children accounting for 40% of deaths. The U.S. estimates Gaza reconstruction will cost over $50 billion. On January 25, US envoys Witkoff and Kushner held what they described as 'constructive' talks with Netanyahu on phase two implementation, even as Israeli strikes killed three Palestinians that same day.
Gaza authorities cited by mediators say more than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began in October 2023, underscoring the conflict's human toll and pressure for a durable settlement.
1,200+
Israelis killed in initial attacks and war
Roughly 1,200 Israelis have been killed since Hamas and allied militants launched their October 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel and the ensuing war began.
460+
Palestinians killed since October 10 ceasefire
At least 460 Palestinians have been killed and 1,236 injured since the October 10, 2025 ceasefire took effect, with children accounting for about 40% of deaths, according to Gaza's health ministry as of mid-January 2026.
1,300+
Documented Israeli ceasefire violations
Gaza authorities documented over 1,300 Israeli violations of the ceasefire from October 10, 2025 to January 20, 2026, through air attacks, artillery, and direct shootings, undermining the fragile truce.
47 / ~2,000
Hostages released vs. Palestinian prisoners freed
Under the first phase of the October 10, 2025 truce, Hamas released 47 captives while Israel freed about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. One hostage's remains (Ran Gvili) have not been returned, blocking full phase one completion.
13–0 (2 abstentions)
UN Security Council vote on Trump Gaza plan
The UN Security Council backed the U.S.-drafted resolution endorsing Trump's Gaza plan—with 13 votes in favour and none against, and Russia and China abstaining—authorising the Board of Peace and an International Stabilization Force.
19 / 62
Countries signed Board charter vs. countries invited
Only 19 countries signed the Board of Peace charter at the January 22 Davos ceremony, despite 62 invitations sent. Key Western allies France, Germany, UK, Canada, and Italy declined, raising questions about international legitimacy.
3-5 months
Disarmament timeline announced
The Board of Peace set a 3-5 month timeline for complete Gaza disarmament on January 21, 2026, with Hamas expected to receive an ultimatum to surrender all weapons, though enforcement mechanisms remain unclear.
$50B+
Estimated Gaza reconstruction cost
The United Nations estimates that reconstructing Gaza will cost over $50 billion, underscoring the massive scale of destruction and the financial challenge facing the Board of Peace and international donors.
January 14, 2026
Phase Two launch date
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff announced the launch of phase two on January 14, 2026, one day before Trump's promised January 15 Board of Peace unveiling, establishing the Palestinian technocratic committee and beginning the demilitarization process.
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People Involved
Donald Trump
President of the United States; Chair-designate of the Board of Peace for Gaza (Principal architect and political guarantor of the Gaza ceasefire and post-war governance plan)
Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister of Israel (Heads the Israeli government that accepted the ceasefire's first phase; pressing for Hamas disarmament before any further Israeli withdrawal or international deployment)
Hakan Fidan
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey (Emerging as a key regional broker, pressing for sequencing that prioritises Palestinian governance and policing before Hamas disarmament; simultaneously negotiating CAATSA sanctions relief with Washington)
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar (Lead mediator between Israel, Hamas and the U.S. on the ceasefire and hostage deal; warning that the truce is fragile and incomplete)
Mike Waltz
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (Led the U.S. push at the UN Security Council to endorse Trump’s Gaza plan and authorise the Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force)
Nickolay Mladenov
Director-General of the Board of Peace for Gaza (Appointed to lead day-to-day operations of the international transitional authority overseeing Gaza's governance, disarmament and reconstruction)
Ali Shaath
Head of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) (Appointed to lead the 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee governing Gaza under international supervision)
Steve Witkoff
U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East (Trump's point person for implementing the Gaza ceasefire and political plan; announced phase two launch)
Organizations Involved
UN
United States Government
Foreign Government
Status: Primary architect and guarantor of the Gaza ceasefire, Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force
The U.S. government designed and is now driving implementation of a multi-phase plan to end the Gaza war, demilitarise the enclave, and install a transitional international administration with heavy American influence.
GO
Government of Israel
National Government
Status: Conflict party; controls Israeli military presence in Gaza and must approve withdrawal and terms of international deployment
Israel’s government prosecuted the Gaza war following Hamas’s October 2023 attacks and now must balance hostage recovery, security guarantees and domestic politics with external pressure to fully implement the ceasefire and accept new governance arrangements in Gaza.
HA
Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement)
Palestinian Militant Organization
Status: Announced it will dissolve Gaza government when Palestinian technocratic body takes over, but refuses full disarmament and continues rebuilding military capabilities during ceasefire
Hamas is a Palestinian Islamist movement that governed Gaza from 2007 until the war, with both a political bureau and an armed wing. It launched the October 7, 2023 attacks and is now being asked to cede control of Gaza and ultimately disarm under the Trump ceasefire plan.
RE
Republic of Turkey
Government
Status: Regional power seeking a role in the International Stabilization Force and shaping Gaza policing and governance; also negotiating sanctions relief with the U.S.
Turkey positions itself as a defender of Palestinian rights and an indispensable regional mediator, pushing for a sequencing of the Gaza plan that emphasises Palestinian-run administration and policing before disarmament and full Israeli withdrawal.
ST
State of Qatar
Government
Status: Key mediator and host of indirect talks; warns ceasefire is incomplete and fragile
Qatar uses its ties with Hamas and strategic partnership with the U.S. to host and mediate key stages of the Gaza ceasefire and governance negotiations, including the Doha Forum discussions.
UN
United Nations Security Council
International Body
Status: Endorsed the Trump Gaza plan and authorised the Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force under a time-limited mandate
The UN Security Council transformed the U.S. Gaza plan into an internationally mandated framework, approving a transitional authority and multinational force while referencing—but not guaranteeing—a future Palestinian state.
BO
Board of Peace (BoP)
International Organization
Status: Charter signed at Davos with 19 countries (UAE, Pakistan, Egypt, Hungary, Argentina among them); key Western allies France, Germany, UK, Canada, Italy declined; announced 3-5 month disarmament timeline; criticized for lack of Gaza-specific focus in charter
The Board of Peace is a UN‑mandated international transitional authority for Gaza that is supposed to coordinate security, humanitarian aid and reconstruction under the Trump plan.
IN
International Stabilization Force (ISF)
Multinational Peacekeeping Force
Status: Commander appointed (General Jasper Jeffers); US officials confirmed ISF will not fight Hamas directly, complicating disarmament enforcement; deployment delayed beyond mid-January target
The ISF is a proposed 20,000-strong multinational force tasked with securing Gaza’s borders, protecting civilians, supervising Hamas disarmament and supporting a reconstituted Palestinian police.
NA
National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG)
Transitional Governing Body
Status: Operations launched from Cairo on January 18; released mission statement; welcomed by Hamas, PA, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey; awaiting Hamas handover of governance
A 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee established under phase two of the Trump Gaza plan to govern Gaza during the transition from Hamas rule to a permanent political settlement.
Timeline
Trump signs Board of Peace charter at Davos; only 19 countries join
Diplomacy
Trump hosted a signing ceremony for the Board of Peace founding charter on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Only 19 countries signed (including UAE, Pakistan, Egypt, Hungary, Argentina) despite 62 invitations. Key Western allies France, Germany, UK, Canada, and Italy declined participation. Critics described the charter as lacking Gaza-specific focus despite its UN mandate for Gaza governance.
Board of Peace sets 3-5 month timeline for Gaza disarmament; Hamas to receive ultimatum
Diplomacy
International bodies tasked with administering Gaza announced a 3-5 month timeline to complete disarmament of the territory. The Board of Peace is expected to present Hamas with an ultimatum demanding it surrender all weapons, not merely as a symbolic gesture, with a short deadline for response. The timeline represents the first concrete schedule for demilitarization under phase two.
Gaza authorities report over 1,300 ceasefire violations; death toll reaches 460+
Conflict
The Government Media Office in Gaza documented over 1,300 Israeli violations of the ceasefire from October 10, 2025 to January 20, 2026, through air attacks, artillery, and shootings. The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine reported 483 deaths and 1,287 injuries over the 100-day period, with children accounting for 40% of fatalities according to Gaza's Health Ministry.
Palestinian technocratic committee launches operations in Cairo
Governance
Ali Shaath's National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) launched operations from Cairo, releasing a mission statement focused on establishing security control, restoring basic services, maintaining peace, and fixing the economy. The 15-member committee was welcomed by Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and governments of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.
General Jasper Jeffers appointed Commander of International Stabilization Force
Military
The appointment of General Jasper Jeffers as Commander of the International Stabilization Force was announced, though deployment timeline and mandate remain disputed. US officials clarified the ISF will not fight Hamas directly, raising questions about enforcement mechanisms for disarmament.
U.S. launches phase two of Gaza plan; Palestinian technocratic committee formed
Diplomacy
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff announced the launch of phase two, establishing a 15-member National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) led by Ali Shaath to assume day-to-day governance. The phase focuses on 'demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction.' Egypt, Qatar and Turkey welcomed the committee's formation.
Hamas announces it will dissolve Gaza government when Palestinian body takes over
Public Statement
Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem announced the movement's decision to relinquish governmental control is 'clear and final,' instructing government agencies to prepare for transition to the technocratic committee. However, Hamas gave no timeline and continues to refuse full disarmament of fighters.
Nickolay Mladenov appointed director-general of Board of Peace
Diplomacy
Netanyahu announced that former UN Middle East peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov, a Bulgarian diplomat who served from 2015-2020, would serve as director-general of the Board of Peace. A U.S. official confirmed the appointment of Mladenov, who has been director-general of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi since 2021.
Six countries commit to Board of Peace; invitations sent to world leaders
Diplomacy
U.S. officials confirmed six countries have committed to joining the Board of Peace: Egypt, Qatar, UAE, UK, Italy and Germany. The U.S. sent invitations to additional world leaders Trump wants on the board, with the first meeting planned for the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
Netanyahu attends Trump New Year's Eve party at Mar-a-Lago
Diplomacy
Netanyahu and his wife Sara attended Trump's New Year's Eve party at Mar-a-Lago, marking Netanyahu's fifth visit to the U.S. since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant seeking his arrest. The visit came days after their December 29 meeting on phase two implementation.
Trump-Netanyahu Mar-a-Lago meeting: Board of Peace set for January 15 unveiling, Hamas given disarmament ultimatum
Diplomacy
Trump met with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago and announced he would unveil the Board of Peace and 'day after' plan for Gaza on January 15, 2026. Trump warned Hamas would have 'hell to pay' if it didn't disarm within a 'very short period of time,' while stating Israel had 'lived up to the plan 100%' despite over 400 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire. Netanyahu raised no objections to the announcement, which officials described as a presidential decree rather than a proposal.
Palestinian death toll during ceasefire reaches 410+ as violations escalate
Conflict
At least 410 Palestinians have been killed and over 1,134 injured since the October 10, 2025 ceasefire began, according to Gaza health authorities. Israeli forces continued near-daily violations including airstrikes, artillery fire, and machine-gun attacks. A Palestinian man, Odai al-Maqadma, was shot and killed by Israeli forces east of Gaza City on December 26. Qatar and mediators have warned the ongoing violence undermines the ceasefire and threatens phase two implementation.
CENTCOM-hosted Doha conference with 45 nations fails to agree on ISF mandate
Diplomacy
U.S. Central Command convened representatives from approximately 45 Arab, Muslim, and Western states in Doha to discuss the International Stabilization Force mandate and deployment. The conference failed to reach agreement on the force's terms of reference, with Turkey notably excluded at Israel's request. No countries committed troops at the meeting, despite the U.S. goal of deploying forces by early 2026.
Italy becomes first country to commit troops to Gaza International Stabilization Force
Diplomacy
Italy told the United States it is committing to send troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, becoming the first country to make such a commitment. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani confirmed Italy's readiness to participate, citing the country's experience in complex international contexts. American officials expressed hope to recruit 5,000 troops by early 2026 and increase to 10,000 by end of 2026.
Qatar warns Gaza ceasefire is at a ‘critical moment’
Public Statement
At the Doha Forum, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said the ceasefire is at a 'critical' moment, stressing that it is not yet a full ceasefire because Israeli forces remain in Gaza, movement is restricted and the last hostage’s remains have not been recovered. Mediators highlighted continued violence and roughly 360 Palestinians killed since the truce began as signs of fragility.
Turkey insists Palestinian administration and police must come before Hamas disarmament
Public Statement
In a Reuters interview at the Doha Forum, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Hamas is prepared to relinquish governance of Gaza but that a credible Palestinian civil administration and vetted, trained, non‑Hamas police force must first be established. He called expectations that Hamas disarm in the ceasefire’s initial phase 'neither realistic nor doable', urged rapid movement to the plan’s second stage, and reaffirmed Turkey’s desire to join the international stabilisation force, even as Israel resists.
Turkey and U.S. signal progress toward lifting CAATSA sanctions
Diplomacy
On the sidelines of the Doha Forum, Fidan told Reuters he expects Turkey and the U.S. to find a way to remove CAATSA sanctions 'very soon', noting that talks have begun and expressing hope the issue will be resolved during Trump’s second term. The comments suggest that Turkey’s prospective role in Gaza stabilisation is intertwined with broader U.S.-Turkey defence negotiations.
Officials say Gaza’s international governing body will be named by year’s end
Diplomacy
An Arab official and a Western diplomat told reporters at the Doha Forum that the Board of Peace, the international body tasked with governing Gaza under the ceasefire’s next phase, would be announced by the end of 2025, along with a Palestinian technocratic committee for day-to-day administration.
Tony Blair dropped from main Board of Peace after Arab and Muslim state objections
Diplomacy
Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair was removed from the main Board of Peace following pressure from several Arab and Muslim states, according to the Financial Times. Blair is still expected to serve on an executive committee under the Board that will include Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, but will not be among the approximately 10 heads of state and monarchs on the primary governing body.
UN Security Council endorses Trump’s Gaza plan and creates Board of Peace and ISF
UN Resolution
The UN Security Council adopted a U.S.-drafted resolution endorsing Trump’s Gaza peace plan, authorising an International Stabilization Force to secure Gaza and oversee demilitarisation, and establishing the Board of Peace as a transitional authority chaired by Trump under an initial two-year UN mandate. The vote was 13–0, with Russia and China abstaining. Hamas rejected the resolution as imposing international guardianship and demanded clearer guarantees on Palestinian rights and statehood.
Trump says international stabilisation force will deploy in Gaza ‘very soon’
Public Statement
Trump announced that a U.S.-coordinated International Stabilization Force of roughly 20,000 troops would be on the ground in Gaza 'very soon' as part of his post-war plan. A draft UN Security Council resolution authorising the force and a transitional governing body began circulating among council members and regional partners.
Ceasefire takes effect; Civil-Military Coordination Center created
Ceasefire Implementation
Hostilities in Gaza largely paused as the first-phase ceasefire took effect. Israel pulled forces back from some areas but maintained a significant presence, while limited Israeli operations and Palestinian fire continued. U.S. Central Command formally established a Civil-Military Coordination Center to coordinate stabilisation and relief efforts and prepare for an international force.
First-phase Gaza ceasefire and exchange deal is agreed
Ceasefire Agreement
After indirect talks in Egypt, and with Trump’s public endorsement, Israel and Hamas agreed to a two‑phase deal. Phase one included a ceasefire, the release of about 20 living hostages and the remains of others within days, the freeing of around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, a partial Israeli pullback inside Gaza and increased humanitarian aid.
Hamas conditionally accepts Trump’s ceasefire and political plan
Diplomacy
Following indirect talks mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the U.S., Hamas issued a statement accepting Trump’s ceasefire proposal with conditions, agreeing in principle to release all Israeli prisoners according to a set exchange formula and to negotiate on Gaza’s future governance and its role in a unified Palestinian movement.
Prolonged Gaza war and regional escalation
Conflict
Over the next two years, Israel’s campaign in Gaza devastated civilian infrastructure and caused massive displacement, while cross-border violence with Hezbollah escalated and international concern mounted. By late 2025, Gaza authorities and mediators estimated more than 70,000 Palestinians and about 1,200 Israelis had been killed since the war began.
Hamas launches attacks on southern Israel, sparking Gaza war
Conflict
Hamas and allied militants carried out coordinated attacks into southern Israel, killing and abducting civilians and soldiers. Israel declared a state of war and launched a major campaign in Gaza, setting off more than two years of intense fighting that killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and over a thousand Israelis.
Scenarios
1
Managed Transition: Board of Peace Launches, ISF Deploys and Hamas Begins Negotiated Disarmament
Discussed by: Supporters of the Trump plan in the U.S. administration, some European and Arab diplomats, and commentary in outlets like Euronews, The Guardian and The Washington Post
In this relatively optimistic scenario, the Board of Peace is constituted by the end of 2025 with buy‑in from key Arab and Western states, and a compromise is found on the International Stabilization Force’s mandate and troop contributors—including a role for regional actors like Turkey and Egypt without alienating Israel. A Palestinian technocratic committee and vetted police force, trained by Arab states and overseen by the ISF, gradually assume day-to-day control of Gaza, while Hamas formally relinquishes governance and enters talks about its political future within a broader Palestinian movement. Disarmament proceeds in stages, with verified decommissioning of heavy weapons and offensive infrastructure tied to concrete milestones: increased aid, phased Israeli withdrawal and a clearer, if still conditional, pathway to Palestinian self-determination. Sporadic violence continues, but large-scale hostilities do not resume.
2
Stalled Implementation: Ceasefire Freezes the Front but Governance and Disarmament Remain Deadlocked
Discussed by: Sceptical analysts and humanitarian agencies quoted by AP, Al Jazeera and The Washington Post; Hamas statements; some European diplomats
Here, the ceasefire technically holds but implementation of phase two stalls. Israel maintains a significant military footprint inside Gaza, citing Hamas’ refusal to disarm and security concerns. The ISF deployment is delayed or limited to a small observer footprint amid disagreements over rules of engagement and who commands the force. The Board of Peace is formed on paper but lacks Palestinian legitimacy and faces internal divisions; the Palestinian technocratic committee struggles to operate under overlapping Israeli, international and Hamas influences. Hamas keeps most of its weapons, arguing that disarmament without a concrete timeline for ending occupation and for statehood is unacceptable, while Israel and the U.S. insist that demilitarisation is a precondition for deeper political concessions. Violence remains at a low but chronic level—targeted Israeli raids, factional clashes, attacks on the ISF—fueling public frustration and humanitarian suffering without returning to full-scale war.
3
Ceasefire Collapse and Return to Large-Scale War in Gaza
Discussed by: Mediators at the Doha Forum, including Qatar and Turkey, and analysts warning of 'critical moment' risks in AP and Reuters coverage
In this downside scenario, accumulated violations, political shocks or spoilers cause the fragile ceasefire to unravel. A major incident—such as a mass-casualty Israeli strike, a large Hamas rocket barrage, or attacks on Israeli or ISF forces—leads one side to declare the agreement void. Netanyahu’s government, under domestic pressure, resumes full-scale ground operations, while Hamas and other factions respond with intensified rocket fire and asymmetric attacks. International actors blame each other: Israel points to Hamas’ refusal to disarm; Hamas cites continued occupation and lack of progress on governance and statehood. The Board of Peace and ISF are either never fully deployed or quickly sidelined. Humanitarian conditions in Gaza deteriorate further, regional tensions spike (including along the Lebanon front), and diplomatic capital spent on the Trump plan is largely lost, forcing the international community back to crisis containment rather than long-term settlement.
4
Political Breakthrough: Ceasefire Spurs Broader Process Toward Palestinian Statehood and Security Guarantees
Discussed by: Some Arab and European diplomats who pushed for references to Palestinian statehood in the UN resolution, as reported by Euronews, The Guardian and The Washington Post
In a more transformative outcome, the Gaza plan, despite its flaws, becomes a springboard for a wider political process. Arab states and the EU leverage their support for the Board of Peace and ISF on a firmer commitment to a two‑state framework, extracting clearer benchmarks and timelines for Palestinian self-determination in subsequent Security Council resolutions or side agreements. Israel’s domestic politics shift—whether through elections or coalition realignment—toward leadership more open to a demilitarised Palestinian state in stages, in exchange for robust security guarantees and regional normalisation. Hamas, under pressure from regional patrons and facing a changing Palestinian political landscape, repositions itself as part of a broader, partially demilitarised Palestinian movement. While far from guaranteed, this scenario would mirror past peace processes where security-first arrangements (like disarmament and policing reforms) gradually fed into more ambitious political settlements.
5
Hybrid Control: Fragmented Authority Between Board of Peace, Hamas Networks and Israeli Perimeter Forces
Discussed by: Security analysts drawing parallels with Lebanon’s UNIFIL experience and critical commentary on vague demilitarisation provisions in The Washington Post and AIPAC/UNIFIL analyses
A middle-ground but unstable scenario mirrors Lebanon after Resolution 1701: formal frameworks exist, but real power is fragmented. The Board of Peace and ISF deploy but with limited capacity and political backing. Israeli forces withdraw from much of Gaza but maintain a permanent 'perimeter' presence and reserved right of intervention. Hamas formally steps back from overt governance yet retains clandestine security and patronage networks, weapons caches and influence over parts of the population, similar to Hezbollah’s role in south Lebanon. Palestinian police operate but face legitimacy and capacity challenges, and the ISF focuses more on de‑confliction than active disarmament. Over time, Gaza becomes a patchwork of authorities, with periodic flare‑ups but no decisive resolution of sovereignty or armed power, complicating both Palestinian statehood and Israeli security calculations.
6
January 15 Announcement Triggers Phase Two but Hamas Rejects Disarmament Timeline
Discussed by: Implicit in Netanyahu and Hamas statements reported by JNS, NBC News and Al Jazeera
Trump announces the Board of Peace membership and Palestinian technocratic committee on January 15 as promised, with Arab and Western heads of state participating. The ISF begins deploying in limited numbers to southern Gaza near Rafah by late January. However, Hamas publicly rejects Trump's disarmament ultimatum, arguing it will only consider giving up weapons in exchange for concrete guarantees on ending occupation and Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu uses Hamas's refusal to justify maintaining Israeli military positions in Gaza indefinitely, creating a frozen conflict where the Board and technocratic committee exist on paper but cannot assume real authority. The ceasefire holds at a minimal level but phase two implementation stalls indefinitely, with periodic flare-ups testing the fragile arrangement.
7
Board of Peace Announcement Delayed Again; January 15 Deadline Slips
Discussed by: Implicit in earlier missed Christmas deadline and ongoing diplomatic difficulties reported by Times of Israel and Axios
Despite Trump's announcement of a January 15 unveiling, last-minute disagreements among potential Board members over mandate, Israeli security demands, or Palestinian representation cause the administration to postpone the announcement again. Key Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia or Egypt, may demand stronger guarantees on Palestinian statehood or object to the Board's limited Palestinian agency. The delay exposes divisions within the international coalition and emboldens Hamas to resist disarmament, while Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to resume operations. The ceasefire continues in name but deteriorates further, with the death toll rising and reconstruction stalled.
8
Phase Two Stalls Over Hamas Partial Disarmament and Israeli Opposition
Discussed by: Israeli officials, Hamas statements, and analysts at Al Jazeera, NPR and The Washington Post
Despite the January 14 launch of phase two, implementation quickly bogs down as Hamas hands over some heavy weapons but refuses to fully disarm its estimated 20,000 fighters while Israel maintains occupation. Netanyahu's government blocks further Israeli withdrawals, citing Hamas's refusal to fully disarm and failure to return Ran Gvili's remains. The Palestinian technocratic committee struggles to operate without real authority, the ISF deployment remains stalled with only Italy committing troops, and the Board of Peace holds symbolic meetings but cannot enforce compliance. Violence continues at elevated levels, reconstruction funding is withheld, and Gaza enters a prolonged limbo of partial governance and partial occupation.
9
Board of Peace First Meeting Collapses Over Mandate Disputes
Discussed by: Implicit in ongoing disagreements over ISF mandate reported by Times of Israel and Foundation for Defense of Democracies
The Board of Peace's first meeting at the World Economic Forum exposes fundamental divisions among member states. Turkey and Arab states demand a firm timeline for Israeli withdrawal and stronger guarantees on Palestinian statehood before endorsing coercive disarmament of Hamas. Israel and some Western members insist on complete Hamas disarmament before any further concessions. The meeting ends without a joint communiqué, member states issue contradictory statements, and several countries quietly withdraw their commitments. Trump's plan loses international legitimacy, forcing the U.S. to either impose a unilateral approach or accept that phase two cannot proceed as designed.
10
Board of Peace Loses Legitimacy; US Proceeds with Reduced Coalition
Discussed by: Critics quoted in Al Jazeera, NPR, and The Guardian coverage of the Davos signing ceremony; European diplomats who declined to join
The Board of Peace's failure to attract key Western allies at the January 22 Davos signing—with only 19 of 62 invited countries joining and major European powers abstaining—undermines its international legitimacy and capacity to enforce the 3-5 month disarmament timeline. The charter's lack of Gaza-specific focus and perception as a 'pay-to-play club' centered on Trump rather than a UN-mandated governance mechanism alienates potential partners. The US proceeds with a reduced coalition dominated by Arab states and smaller partners, but lacks the diplomatic weight and military contributions needed for effective ISF deployment. Without European participation, funding for the $50 billion reconstruction falls short, and the Palestinian technocratic committee struggles to gain credibility. The initiative increasingly resembles a unilateral US-Arab arrangement rather than a truly international framework, giving Hamas and other spoilers room to resist compliance.
11
Hamas Rejects Disarmament Ultimatum; Israel Resumes Operations
Discussed by: Implicit in Israeli officials' statements and Hamas's continued refusal to disarm reported across sources
When the Board of Peace delivers its disarmament ultimatum in late January 2026 with a short deadline, Hamas publicly rejects it, citing Israel's continued occupation, over 1,300 ceasefire violations, and lack of concrete guarantees on Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu uses the rejection to justify resuming large-scale military operations, arguing Israel cannot withdraw while Hamas remains armed. The 3-5 month disarmament timeline collapses before it begins. The ISF deployment is suspended as the security situation deteriorates. The fragile ceasefire unravels completely, with full-scale fighting resuming by February-March 2026, sending Gaza back into major conflict and discrediting the Trump plan as unworkable.
Historical Context
UN Resolution 1701 and UNIFIL in Lebanon (2006–present)
2006–present
What Happened
After the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1701, calling for a full cessation of hostilities, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, the deployment of an expanded UNIFIL peacekeeping force and, crucially, the disarmament of Hezbollah and all armed groups so that only the Lebanese state would hold weapons. Despite initial calm, Hezbollah never fully withdrew from the border area nor disarmed, instead massively expanding its arsenal over subsequent years, while UNIFIL focused mainly on monitoring and de‑escalation rather than coercive disarmament.
Outcome
Short Term
The resolution ended active hostilities in 2006 and created a buffer zone patrolled by UNIFIL and the Lebanese army, reducing immediate cross-border clashes and providing a framework for relative stability in south Lebanon.
Long Term
Hezbollah retained and expanded its military capabilities, demonstrating that without political will and local state capacity, international mandates to disarm non-state actors are difficult to enforce. This unresolved imbalance has contributed to renewed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, most recently in 2023–24, and shaped debates about the limits of peacekeeping forces.
Why It's Relevant Today
Resolution 1701 illustrates the challenge now facing Gaza: the international community can mandate disarmament and deploy peacekeepers, but if local actors see weapons as essential to deterrence or political leverage, and if the host state (or transitional authority) is weak, demilitarisation may never be fully realised. That experience informs scepticism about whether the International Stabilization Force and Board of Peace can actually neutralise Hamas’ military wing, echoing concerns voiced by Hamas and some analysts about the Trump plan’s enforcement gaps.
UNTAET in East Timor: International Transitional Administration and Police-Building
1999–2002
What Happened
In 1999, after a UN-sponsored referendum in which East Timorese voted for independence from Indonesia, widespread violence by pro-Indonesian militias led the UN Security Council to establish the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET). UNTAET combined a peacekeeping force with full civil administrative authority, including responsibility for law and order, and created an international police component tasked with recruiting, training and supervising a new East Timor police service while overseeing disarmament and demobilisation of armed groups.
Outcome
Short Term
UNTAET restored basic security, facilitated humanitarian relief and began rebuilding local institutions from scratch, including a judiciary, tax system and border controls. International police held executive authority initially, gradually transferring responsibilities to a Timorese force as training progressed.
Long Term
East Timor achieved formal independence in 2002, with a functioning (if fragile) state and police. However, critics argued that limited local participation and heavy international control delayed the development of indigenous political capacity and legitimacy, contributing to later internal crises.
Why It's Relevant Today
UNTAET offers a more hopeful precedent for Gaza’s Board of Peace and proposals for a vetted Palestinian police under international supervision. It shows that an international transitional authority, backed by robust peacekeeping and policing, can build new security institutions and manage a shift from conflict to independence. But it also cautions that heavy external control and technocratic administration without deep local ownership risk legitimacy deficits—paralleling Palestinian concerns that the Board of Peace and ISF may marginalise Palestinian agency.
Good Friday Agreement and IRA Decommissioning in Northern Ireland
1998–2010
What Happened
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended decades of conflict in Northern Ireland by combining new power-sharing institutions with commitments to the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons and the 'normalisation' of security arrangements. The accord established the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) to monitor and verify disarmament and launched a far-reaching reform of policing, including replacing the Royal Ulster Constabulary with the Police Service of Northern Ireland to gain cross-community legitimacy.
Outcome
Short Term
Implementation was slow and contested. Unionist parties demanded visible IRA decommissioning before fully embracing power-sharing, while republicans insisted on parallel political reforms and police changes. The IICD reported no actual decommissioning in 1998, and disarmament did not begin in earnest for several years.
Long Term
Over roughly a decade, paramilitary groups—including the Provisional IRA—eventually put weapons 'beyond use' under IICD supervision, while policing reforms gradually built a more representative and rights-focused police service. The process underscored that durable disarmament often follows credible political inclusion and trusted security institutions rather than preceding them.
Why It's Relevant Today
Northern Ireland’s experience mirrors Hakan Fidan’s argument about sequencing in Gaza: expecting a group like Hamas to disarm before seeing concrete changes in governance, policing and political prospects may be unrealistic. The Good Friday model suggests that establishing inclusive, legitimate institutions—particularly policing—and gradually building trust can make decommissioning politically feasible over time, informing debates over whether Palestinian administration and police should come before or alongside Hamas disarmament in the Trump plan.
