Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (GUR)

Force in Play

Confirmed the Sept. 1 strike on the Novatek-Ust-Luga complex at Ust-Luga port and the Sept. 14 strikes on the TANECO and Slavyansk refineries; earlier obtained internal Russian documents cited by Zelenskyy showing some export components fell 80% in August, and its Cyber Corps disrupted Wildberries' payment systems twice in August

Ukraine's Defense Ministry said Oct. 5 that long-range strikes have disabled more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity, an assessment that could not be independently verified. Putin acknowledged at the Valdai Club forum that the strikes cost Russia roughly 1% of GDP.

Updated Yesterday

Force in Play

Primary coordinator of deep strikes on Russian naval and energy targets

On April 20, Ukraine struck two large Russian Navy landing ships — the Yamal and the Nikolai Filchenkov — in Sevastopol Bay, disabling an estimated $150 million in naval assets and destroying a Podlet-K1 radar station. The same night, drones hit the Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar for the second time in a week, igniting tank farm fires at one of Russia's ten largest refineries. These were the latest in a sustained campaign that has forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet to abandon its historic base in Crimea and retreat to Novorossiysk, where it is still being hit.

Updated May 31