OPEC+

Built World

Attempting to offset supply disruption with modest production increases

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began February 28 with Operation Epic Fury, reached a sudden conclusion on April 8 when the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, with Tehran committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—closed for 41 days under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps control. The conflict drove Brent crude above $112 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $111 in early April, with the International Energy Agency warning of 12 million barrels per day offline in history's largest oil supply shock. Key triggers included Israel's March 18 strikes on South Pars, U.S. operations in the strait, Yemen's Houthi attacks, and President Trump's expired March 22 ultimatum on Iranian power plants. Japan released reserves on March 16, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration's April 7 outlook reflected prolonged disruption before the surprise de-escalation.

Updated Apr 8

Force in Play

Approved emergency production increase for April 2026

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, now in its 39th day, has evolved into a regional energy war, with over 1,000 vessels worth $25 billion still stranded and roughly 11 million barrels per day offline—more than double the combined shortfalls of the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, per the International Energy Agency's March 23 crisis declaration. Strikes have hit facilities across Qatar (Ras Laffan LNG, 20% of global supply), Kuwait refineries, Saudi Arabia's Samref refinery, and UAE's Habshan gas plant and Bab oil field since March 19, following Israel's initial attack on Iran's South Pars field. Iraq halted 1.5 million bpd, QatarEnergy LNG remains offline, and Saudi Aramco cut output by 20% to 8 million bpd as storage overflows.

Updated Apr 6

Force in Play

Increasing production to offset Hormuz disruption

The last time the United States sank Iranian warships was April 18, 1988. Thirty-eight years later, American forces destroyed nine Iranian naval vessels in a single day and demolished the country's naval headquarters at Chabahar, on the Gulf of Oman. The strikes came after Iran attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile-wide passage through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply flows, broadcasting radio warnings that no commercial ship would be allowed to pass.

Updated Mar 1

Money Moves

Holding 3.24 million barrels per day in cuts, delaying planned unwind

Brent crude averaged $80 per barrel in 2024. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now forecasts it will fall to $58 in 2026 and $53 in 2027—a decline of more than one-third in three years. The reason: global oil production is growing faster than demand, and inventories are piling up at a rate not seen since the pandemic.

Updated Feb 11