Russian Federation

Russia controls Crimea and significant parts of eastern and southern Ukraine and is seeking a settlement that codifies its gains and limits NATO expansion. - Categorically rejecting European peacekeeping proposals; threatening foreign troops would be 'legitimate military targets'; received U.S.-Ukraine peace plan Jan. 7 via Dmitriev

By late December 2025, months of intensive U.S.–Ukraine–Russia shuttle diplomacy produced a breakthrough: the controversial 28‑point plan that had alarmed Kyiv and European allies was replaced by a revised 20‑point framework that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said was "90 percent agreed" with Washington, including "100 percent" consensus on U.S.–Ukraine security guarantees. The new framework—hammered out through parallel Miami sessions with Ukrainian officials led by Rustem Umerov and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, then refined in a December 28 Mar‑a‑Lago summit between Trump and Zelenskyy—offers Ukraine NATO Article 5‑style security guarantees for at least 15 years, maintains Ukraine's 800,000‑strong military, and envisions a demilitarized zone along current battle lines in Donetsk overseen by international monitors. On January 8, 2026, Zelenskyy announced that the bilateral U.S.–Ukraine security guarantee document is now "essentially ready" to be finalized at the highest level with President Trump.

Updated Jan 11

Russia is the invading power in Ukraine, seeking to secure recognition of its territorial gains and long-term constraints on Ukraine’s alignment with NATO. - Occupying large parts of Ukraine and demanding recognition of annexations

In late 2025, the Trump administration’s drive to broker an end to Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine entered a decisive phase. U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg said a peace deal was “really, really close,” with only two core disputes left: the fate of the Donbas region—especially the remaining Ukrainian‑held parts of Donetsk—and the future of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest. Kellogg estimated over 2 million combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties since Russia’s 2022 invasion, as Moscow now holds roughly 19% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and most of Donbas.

Updated Dec 11, 2025