In late 2025, U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg said a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine was "really, really close." Two disputes remain: the fate of Donbas, especially Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk, and the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant (Russia-occupied and the largest in Europe).
Kellogg estimated over 2 million combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties since Russia's 2022 invasion. Moscow now holds roughly 19% of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea and most of Donbas. A leaked 28-point U.S. draft plan alarmed Kyiv and European allies, who say it rewards Russian aggression by locking in large territorial gains and limiting Ukraine's future military strength.
Russia also demands full control of Donbas and a favorable settlement over Zaporizhzhia. Zelenskyy calls talks with U.S. envoys "constructive but not easy" and rejects ceding more territory without a legal mandate. Putin has signaled he will take all of Donbas "militarily or otherwise" if negotiations fail, and Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner continue shuttling between Moscow, Kyiv, and Western capitals.
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Latest: December 7th, 2025 · 6 months ago
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December 2025
Kellogg: Ukraine peace deal is ‘really close’ but Moscow wants radical changes
LatestPublic Statement
At the Reagan National Defense Forum, outgoing U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg says talks are in the “last 10 metres,” with only Donbas and Zaporizhzhia unresolved. The Kremlin responds that the U.S. must make “serious, radical changes” to its proposals, especially on territorial questions.
Zelenskyy calls U.S. talks ‘constructive but not easy’
Public Statement
Zelenskyy says his discussions with Witkoff and Kushner were constructive yet difficult and prepares to meet French, British, and German leaders in London and Brussels for further consultations.
Zaporizhzhia plant briefly loses external power amid strikes
Security Incident
The IAEA reports that Zaporizhzhia temporarily lost all external power before it was restored, highlighting persistent nuclear risks as the plant remains under Russian control and a key bargaining chip in peace talks.
Putin vows to take all of Donbas, militarily or otherwise
Public Statement
In an interview, Putin declares that Russia will secure full control over Donbas, either by force or by Ukrainian withdrawal, underscoring the centrality of Donetsk and Luhansk in the talks.
Witkoff and Kushner hold marathon Kremlin talks with Putin
High-Level Negotiation
Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner meet Putin in Moscow for around five hours to discuss a revised peace plan. Russian aide Yuri Ushakov calls the talks constructive but says no compromise on territories has yet been reached.
November 2025
U.S. and Ukraine promise ‘updated’ framework; Europe tables counter-plan
Framework Revision
Following criticism, Washington and Kyiv say they will update the peace framework. European allies publish a Kyiv-friendly plan that delays territorial negotiations until after a ceasefire and avoids demanding Ukrainian withdrawals from key Donbas cities.
European leaders push back on U.S. 28-point plan
Allied Response
Euronews reports that European leaders deem Trump’s 28‑point plan a mere draft, rejecting territorial concessions that would give Russia all of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk and reduce Ukraine’s army to 600,000.
U.S.–Russia peace plan leaks, Kyiv and Europe recoil
Leak / Political Backlash
A U.S.–Russia draft peace proposal reportedly drafted by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Witkoff leaks. Ukrainian officials label it “absurd” and a provocation, while European allies voice concern that it resembles a Russian “wish list.”
October 2025
Russia’s non-paper reiterates maximalist demands
Diplomatic Communication
Reuters reports that Russia sent a private communique to Washington restating demands for full control over Donbas and a ban on NATO troops in Ukraine, clashing with U.S. ideas of freezing current front lines.
Reuters outlines contours of a potential peace deal
Analytical Leak
Reuters publishes an analysis of leaked U.S. drafts suggesting that Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk would be recognized de facto as Russian, with Ukrainian withdrawals from remaining Donbas and the creation of demilitarized zones, sparking concerns over territorial concessions.
August 2025
Trump–Putin Alaska summit focuses on Ukraine
Summit
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson in Anchorage for a summit centered on the Ukraine war and possible economic cooperation, laying groundwork for later written peace proposals.
March 2025
Trump’s Zaporizhzhia ownership idea surfaces—and is rejected
Backchannel Proposal
Reports emerge that Trump discussed the U.S. potentially owning and operating Zaporizhzhia and other Ukrainian nuclear plants as part of a ceasefire deal. Zelenskyy clarifies that only Zaporizhzhia was mentioned and firmly rejects any foreign ownership as illegal.
September 2022
Russia announces annexation of four Ukrainian regions
Political Move
Following widely condemned referendums, Russia claims to annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine and most of the world reject the move as illegal and vow not to recognize the new borders.
March 2022
Russia seizes Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Military Escalation
Russian troops capture Enerhodar and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after shelling near the facility, sparking global alarm over nuclear safety and inaugurating a long-running nuclear crisis at the site.
February 2022
Russia launches full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Military Escalation
Russian forces invade Ukraine from multiple directions, beginning the largest war in Europe since World War II. Ukraine declares martial law and mobilizes its population.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
1 of 3
1950–1953 (war) / Armistice signed July 27, 1953
Korean Armistice Agreement (1953)
The Korean War ended not with a peace treaty but with the Korean Armistice Agreement, which created a heavily fortified demilitarized zone roughly along the 38th parallel and froze front lines without resolving the underlying political conflict between North and South Korea. Hostilities ceased, but the Korean Peninsula technically remains in a state of war.
Then
A ceasefire stopped large-scale fighting and established monitoring mechanisms along the DMZ.
Now
The division of Korea became permanent de facto, with recurrent crises but no final peace settlement, illustrating how armistices can freeze conflicts rather than resolve them.
Why this matters now
Several Ukraine proposals contemplate a ceasefire line, demilitarized zones, and long-term monitoring without fully resolving sovereignty claims—akin to Korea’s armistice. This parallel shows how such arrangements can prevent immediate bloodshed but institutionalize partitions and create enduring flashpoints.
2 of 3
1992–1995 (war) / Accords initialed November 21, 1995
Dayton Accords Ending the Bosnian War (1995)
The Dayton Peace Agreement, brokered by the United States at Wright‑Patterson Air Force Base, ended the Bosnian War by preserving Bosnia and Herzegovina as a single state divided into two entities (the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska), along with a complex power‑sharing system and heavy international oversight.
Then
Fighting ceased and large-scale violence ended, with NATO and later EU forces overseeing implementation.
Now
Dayton has kept the peace but entrenched ethnic divisions and complex governance; Bosnia remains fragile and heavily influenced by external actors.
Why this matters now
Dayton shows how U.S.-led diplomacy can end a brutal war through territorial compromises, institutional engineering, and foreign guarantors. The Ukraine talks similarly revolve around maps, demographic realities, and external security guarantees, raising questions about whether a “Dayton for Ukraine” would trade off democratic simplicity and long-term stability for ending immediate violence.
3 of 3
2014–2015 and aftermath
Minsk II Agreement on Donbas (2015)
The Minsk II accords, negotiated by Ukraine, Russia, and OSCE mediators with Franco-German involvement, aimed to halt fighting in eastern Ukraine through a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, and constitutional reforms granting special status to separatist-held areas. In practice, the ceasefire was repeatedly violated, and core political provisions were never fully implemented.
Then
Violence decreased in some periods but never fully stopped; front lines stabilized into a low-intensity trench war.
Now
Minsk II became a frozen, contested framework that each side accused the other of violating, setting the stage for Russia’s larger 2022 invasion when Moscow claimed Ukraine had failed to implement its obligations.
Why this matters now
Minsk II is a direct cautionary precedent: a vaguely worded, poorly enforced agreement on eastern Ukraine that neither side truly accepted as legitimate. Current negotiators fear repeating its flaws—overly ambiguous language on autonomy, security, and sequencing—yet some proposals again rely on ceasefires, special statuses, and demilitarized zones in Donbas, making Minsk II a critical lens for judging whether new arrangements can be more durable.
