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ScenarioMIP for CMIP7

Climate modeling working group under WCRP

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Climate scientists drop worst-case warming scenario from new model framework

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Published new scenario framework April 2026

The scenario long used as climate change's 'business as usual' no longer counts. In April 2026, the team building the next generation of global climate models removed SSP5-8.5 — the high-emissions track behind most '4-5°C by 2100' headlines — from the CMIP7 framework that will feed the IPCC's seventh assessment report.

Updated 6 days ago