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Heather Long

Heather Long

Chief Economist, Navy Federal Credit Union

Appears in 1 story

Notable Quotes

"This is a K-shaped economy with strong spending from the top and much more cautious spending from middle- and lower-income consumers. Retail sales were flat in December, driven by soft spending on autos, home furnishings, appliances and clothing. These items were hard hit by tariffs in 2025 and consumers shifted their spending elsewhere." — February 2026

Stories

American consumer spending divergence

Money Moves

Prominent voice on consumer economy divergence

American retail sales went nowhere in December, the weakest holiday shopping finish since 2018. The Commerce Department reported $735 billion in sales—unchanged from November—while economists expected 0.4% growth. Eight of thirteen retail categories declined, with furniture and auto sales hit hardest by tariff-driven price increases. The data, delayed more than a month by a 43-day government shutdown, sent money markets repricing Federal Reserve rate cuts from two to three for 2026. New analysis from Bank of America reveals the structural fracture runs deeper than initially understood: in January, higher-income households' spending grew 2.5% year-over-year, while middle-income households managed just 1% and lower-income households only 0.3%.

Updated Feb 18