Jeff Asher

Force in Play

Predicts murder will likely fall again in 2026 but not as dramatically

America's murder rate plunged to its lowest level since 1900 in 2025, as homicides fell 21%—the largest single-year drop ever recorded, according to Council on Criminal Justice data from 35 major cities. This followed 2024's historic 14.9% decline, creating an unprecedented two-year reversal. The 2025 rate, projected at 4 per 100,000 when the FBI releases nationwide data, is a complete reversal of the 2020 pandemic spike and brings murder 25% below pre-pandemic levels.

Updated May 19