Overview
Murder in America plunged 14.9% in 2024—likely the fastest single-year drop ever recorded. Violent crime hit its lowest level since 1969. Motor vehicle theft, which had surged to crisis levels during the Kia Challenge social media craze, fell 18.6%. The FBI's August 2025 report confirmed what criminologists had been tracking: crime is crashing back to earth after spiking during COVID lockdowns.
But Americans don't believe it. Polls show most think crime is rising, not falling. The disconnect became a political flashpoint in the 2024 election, with Trump calling FBI data 'fake' while Biden claimed credit for the turnaround. What caused the reversal—community violence programs, pandemic recovery, or something else—remains disputed. What's clear: this is one of the sharpest crime reversals in modern US history.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The nation's authoritative crime data source, though its 2021 reporting overhaul created a credibility gap.
Think tank that fills the FBI's data gap by tracking crime in 40 major cities monthly.
Timeline
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FBI Reports Violent and Property Crime Declines in 2024
Official DataFBI confirms murder fell 14.9%, violent crime 4.5%, property crime 8.1%—steepest drops in decades. Motor vehicle theft down 18.6%.
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CCJ: Crime Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels
ReportCouncil on Criminal Justice year-end report shows 12 of 13 crime types declined in 2024.
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Analysts Predict Record Murder Drop
AnalysisJeff Asher forecasts 2024 will see largest single-year murder decline ever, based on real-time city data.
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Presidential Debate Clash Over Crime
PoliticalBiden cites FBI data showing dramatic declines; Trump calls it 'fake,' claims cities in chaos. Polls show Americans side with Trump.
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Murder Falls 12% in 2023
Crime DeclineFBI data shows first major reversal from 2020 spike, though remains above pre-pandemic levels.
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Kia/Hyundai Software Fix Deployed
Corporate ResponseAutomakers begin rolling out software patches that eventually cut theft rates by 53% for upgraded vehicles.
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Kia Challenge Drives Theft Surge
Crime WaveViral TikTok challenge exploits Kia/Hyundai security flaw. Motor vehicle thefts spike 1000% as teens film themselves stealing cars.
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Bipartisan Safer Communities Act Signed
LegislationFirst major federal gun control law in decades passes with Republican support, expanding background checks and funding mental health.
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White House Launches CVI Collaborative
PolicyBiden convenes 15+ cities committing to use federal funds for community violence intervention instead of traditional policing.
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American Rescue Plan Enacted
PolicyBiden signs $1.9 trillion stimulus including $15B for community violence intervention and crime prevention programs.
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FBI Transitions to NIBRS Reporting
Data SystemNew crime reporting system launches but only 66% of agencies participate, creating year-long data gap fueling political disputes.
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Homicides Surge 30% in 2020
Crime SpikeFBI data later confirms largest single-year murder increase on record. Property crime holds steady as violent crime soars.
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George Floyd Murder Sparks Protests
Social UnrestNationwide protests and debates over policing erupt. Crime becomes central to political discourse amid 'defund the police' movement.
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COVID-19 National Emergency Declared
Public HealthPandemic lockdowns begin, triggering economic collapse and social disruption. Homicides would spike 30% by year-end.
Scenarios
Crime Stabilizes at New Lower Baseline Through 2026
Discussed by: Jeff Asher, Council on Criminal Justice researchers, Brennan Center analysts
Murder and violent crime continue declining in 2026 but at slower rates as they approach historical lows. This scenario assumes pandemic-era disruptions have fully worked through the system, federal investments in community violence programs sustain gains, and economic conditions remain stable. Asher predicts murder will 'likely fall again in 2026 but the drop won't be as large.' Cities that invested heavily in community intervention—Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia—maintain low rates. The political narrative shifts from debating whether crime fell to arguing who deserves credit.
Second Crime Wave Emerges from New Shock
Discussed by: Conservative criminologists, police unions, Republican officials
A new external shock—economic recession, another pandemic, mass deportations disrupting communities, cuts to violence intervention funding—triggers a second surge. This scenario mirrors how the 1960s crime wave followed urban unrest and social disruption. If the Trump administration eliminates community violence programs and returns to incarceration-focused policies, some cities could see gains reverse. The Vera Institute warns 'Trump doesn't deserve credit' for current declines, suggesting his policies could undermine them.
Perception-Reality Gap Closes as Data Penetrates
Discussed by: The Marshall Project, Brennan Center, data journalism advocates
Public perception slowly aligns with reality as FBI data gains credibility and real-time tracking becomes standard. Media coverage shifts from anecdotal crime stories to data-driven analysis. The gap that allowed politicians to exploit fear despite falling crime narrows. This requires sustained decline through 2026-2027, no viral crime incidents dominating news cycles, and improved data literacy. The Marshall Project asks 'Will Americans Pay Attention?' to better data—this scenario assumes yes.
Data Wars Intensify as Politics Override Facts
Discussed by: Partisan media, political strategists from both parties
The perception-reality gap persists or widens as politicians cherry-pick data sources to fit narratives. Republicans point to shoplifting increases and viral videos while dismissing FBI murder data. Democrats tout overall declines while ignoring cities where crime remains elevated. The 2021 NIBRS transition taught politicians that data gaps create opportunity—this scenario assumes they've learned that lesson. Crime becomes like inflation: what people feel trumps what statistics show.
Historical Context
The Great Crime Decline of the 1990s-2000s
1991-2014What Happened
After peaking in 1991, American crime fell continuously for two decades, with murder dropping 51% by 2014. The decline followed the crack epidemic's violence and coincided with mass incarceration, economic growth, the end of leaded gasoline exposure, and new policing strategies. Experts still debate which factors mattered most—CompStat, more prisons, less lead, aging demographics, or the crack market stabilizing.
Outcome
Short term: Crime became a non-issue in national politics by the 2000s, enabling criminal justice reform discussions.
Long term: Incarceration quintupled but scholars now question whether prison growth drove the decline or simply accompanied it.
Why It's Relevant
The current drop mirrors the 1990s in speed and scale, but with one key difference: this time, investment went to community programs rather than prisons.
The 2020 Pandemic Homicide Spike
2020-2021What Happened
Homicides jumped 30% in 2020—the largest single-year increase on record—as COVID lockdowns disrupted schools, courts, social services, and community life. Unlike other crimes, which held steady or fell, murder surged nationwide but concentrated in disadvantaged communities. The spike fueled 'defund the police' backlash and made crime central to the 2024 election despite beginning under Trump.
Outcome
Short term: Cities reversed police budget cuts and invested in both enforcement and community programs, creating a hybrid approach.
Long term: The spike proved temporary, with murder falling back below pre-pandemic levels by 2025, but political damage to Democrats persisted.
Why It's Relevant
The 2024-2025 decline represents a full reversal of the pandemic spike, suggesting it was driven by temporary disruption rather than permanent social breakdown.
The Kia Challenge Auto Theft Crisis
2022-2024What Happened
A viral TikTok challenge exposed a security flaw in Kia and Hyundai vehicles lacking immobilizers. Teens filmed themselves stealing cars with just a USB cable. Thefts of these models spiked 1000% between 2020 and 2023, accounting for six of the ten most-stolen vehicles in 2023. At its peak, the trend caused at least 14 crashes and eight deaths.
Outcome
Short term: Kia and Hyundai deployed software patches starting in February 2023, cutting theft rates by 53% for upgraded vehicles.
Long term: Motor vehicle theft fell 18.6% in 2024, demonstrating how targeted interventions can reverse even viral crime trends.
Why It's Relevant
This episode shows how quickly crime can spike from social media contagion—and how quickly it can reverse with the right fix, offering a model for addressing other viral crime trends.