America's murder rate plunged to its lowest level since 1900 in 2025, as homicides fell 21%—the largest single-year drop ever recorded, according to Council on Criminal Justice data from 35 major cities. This followed 2024's historic 14.9% decline, creating an unprecedented two-year reversal. The 2025 rate—projected at 4 per 100,000 when FBI releases nationwide data—represents a complete reversal of the 2020 pandemic spike and brings murder 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Denver saw homicides drop 41%, followed by Washington DC and Omaha at 40%. Experts attribute the decline to reduced alcohol consumption, the slowing opioid epidemic, and community violence intervention programs funded through Biden's American Rescue Plan.
America's murder rate plunged to its lowest level since 1900 in 2025, as homicides fell 21%—the largest single-year drop ever recorded, according to Council on Criminal Justice data from 35 major cities. This followed 2024's historic 14.9% decline, creating an unprecedented two-year reversal. The 2025 rate—projected at 4 per 100,000 when FBI releases nationwide data—represents a complete reversal of the 2020 pandemic spike and brings murder 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Denver saw homicides drop 41%, followed by Washington DC and Omaha at 40%. Experts attribute the decline to reduced alcohol consumption, the slowing opioid epidemic, and community violence intervention programs funded through Biden's American Rescue Plan.
Yet the perception-reality gap is finally narrowing: Gallup's 2025 polling showed less than 50% of Americans believe crime is rising—the lowest proportion since 2001. This shift comes as Trump claims credit for the decline, deploying federal forces to DC in August 2025 in an unprecedented takeover of the city's police despite crime already hitting 30-year lows. Trump is now pushing a comprehensive crime bill featuring mandatory minimums and expanded death penalty use. Analysts predict murder will likely fall again in 2026, though not as dramatically. What caused the reversal—community intervention, pandemic recovery, demographic shifts—remains disputed, but the turnaround is now entering its third year and reshaping the political debate over crime.
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People Involved
Jeff Asher
Crime Analyst and Co-founder, AH Datalytics (Predicts murder will likely fall again in 2026 but not as dramatically)
Joe Biden
US President (2021-2025) (Claimed credit for crime decline through federal investment)
Donald Trump
US President (2025-Present) (Claims credit for crime decline while implementing aggressive 'tough on crime' policies)
Organizations Involved
FB
FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program
Federal Law Enforcement Data Collection
Status: Primary source for national crime statistics
The nation's authoritative crime data source, though its 2021 reporting overhaul created a credibility gap.
CO
Council on Criminal Justice
Nonpartisan Criminal Justice Think Tank
Status: Provides real-time crime tracking independent of FBI
Think tank that fills the FBI's data gap by tracking crime in 40 major cities monthly.
Timeline
CCJ: 2025 Murder Rate Hits Lowest Level Since 1900
Official Data
Council on Criminal Justice report confirms murders fell 21% in 2025—largest single-year drop on record. Projected national rate of 4 per 100,000 would be lowest since FBI began tracking in 1900. 11 of 13 crime categories declined.
California Allocates $103M for Violence Intervention
Policy
CalVIP Cohort 5 provides $103 million to California cities, counties and tribes for community-based violence intervention programs through 2029, continuing investment in CVI model.
DC Violent Crime Falls 29% Despite Trump Takeover Claims
Crime Decline
Washington DC records fewer than 150 homicides for first time since 2017, with violent crime down 29% in 2025. Decline began before Trump's August federal takeover of city police.
Gallup: Perception-Reality Gap Narrows
Public Opinion
Less than 50% of Americans believe crime is rising—lowest proportion since 2001. Political polarization still drives perceptions, but gap closing as declines continue.
Trump Takes Control of DC Police Force
Federal Intervention
Trump invokes never-before-used law to seize control of Metropolitan Police Department and deploys 800 National Guard troops, citing crime despite DC being at 30-year low.
FBI Reports Violent and Property Crime Declines in 2024
Official Data
FBI confirms murder fell 14.9%, violent crime 4.5%, property crime 8.1%—steepest drops in decades. Motor vehicle theft down 18.6%.
Trump Signs HALT Fentanyl Act
Legislation
President permanently classifies all fentanyl-related substances as Schedule I drugs with harsh mandatory minimums, reversing Biden-era focus on treatment over incarceration.
CCJ: Crime Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels
Report
Council on Criminal Justice year-end report shows 12 of 13 crime types declined in 2024.
Analysts Predict Record Murder Drop
Analysis
Jeff Asher forecasts 2024 will see largest single-year murder decline ever, based on real-time city data.
Presidential Debate Clash Over Crime
Political
Biden cites FBI data showing dramatic declines; Trump calls it 'fake,' claims cities in chaos. Polls show Americans side with Trump.
Murder Falls 12% in 2023
Crime Decline
FBI data shows first major reversal from 2020 spike, though remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Kia/Hyundai Software Fix Deployed
Corporate Response
Automakers begin rolling out software patches that eventually cut theft rates by 53% for upgraded vehicles.
Kia Challenge Drives Theft Surge
Crime Wave
Viral TikTok challenge exploits Kia/Hyundai security flaw. Motor vehicle thefts spike 1000% as teens film themselves stealing cars.
Bipartisan Safer Communities Act Signed
Legislation
First major federal gun control law in decades passes with Republican support, expanding background checks and funding mental health.
White House Launches CVI Collaborative
Policy
Biden convenes 15+ cities committing to use federal funds for community violence intervention instead of traditional policing.
American Rescue Plan Enacted
Policy
Biden signs $1.9 trillion stimulus including $15B for community violence intervention and crime prevention programs.
FBI Transitions to NIBRS Reporting
Data System
New crime reporting system launches but only 66% of agencies participate, creating year-long data gap fueling political disputes.
Homicides Surge 30% in 2020
Crime Spike
FBI data later confirms largest single-year murder increase on record. Property crime holds steady as violent crime soars.
George Floyd Murder Sparks Protests
Social Unrest
Nationwide protests and debates over policing erupt. Crime becomes central to political discourse amid 'defund the police' movement.
COVID-19 National Emergency Declared
Public Health
Pandemic lockdowns begin, triggering economic collapse and social disruption. Homicides would spike 30% by year-end.
Scenarios
1
Crime Stabilizes at New Lower Baseline Through 2026
Discussed by: Jeff Asher, Council on Criminal Justice researchers, Brennan Center analysts
Murder and violent crime continue declining in 2026 but at slower rates as they approach historical lows. This scenario assumes pandemic-era disruptions have fully worked through the system, federal investments in community violence programs sustain gains, and economic conditions remain stable. Asher predicts murder will 'likely fall again in 2026 but the drop won't be as large.' Cities that invested heavily in community intervention—Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia—maintain low rates. The political narrative shifts from debating whether crime fell to arguing who deserves credit.
A new external shock—economic recession, another pandemic, mass deportations disrupting communities, cuts to violence intervention funding—triggers a second surge. This scenario mirrors how the 1960s crime wave followed urban unrest and social disruption. If the Trump administration eliminates community violence programs and returns to incarceration-focused policies, some cities could see gains reverse. The Vera Institute warns 'Trump doesn't deserve credit' for current declines, suggesting his policies could undermine them.
3
Perception-Reality Gap Closes as Data Penetrates
Discussed by: The Marshall Project, Brennan Center, data journalism advocates
Public perception slowly aligns with reality as FBI data gains credibility and real-time tracking becomes standard. Media coverage shifts from anecdotal crime stories to data-driven analysis. The gap that allowed politicians to exploit fear despite falling crime narrows. This requires sustained decline through 2026-2027, no viral crime incidents dominating news cycles, and improved data literacy. The Marshall Project asks 'Will Americans Pay Attention?' to better data—this scenario assumes yes.
4
Data Wars Intensify as Politics Override Facts
Discussed by: Partisan media, political strategists from both parties
The perception-reality gap persists or widens as politicians cherry-pick data sources to fit narratives. Republicans point to shoplifting increases and viral videos while dismissing FBI murder data. Democrats tout overall declines while ignoring cities where crime remains elevated. The 2021 NIBRS transition taught politicians that data gaps create opportunity—this scenario assumes they've learned that lesson. Crime becomes like inflation: what people feel trumps what statistics show.
5
Trump's 'Tough on Crime' Policies Reverse Gains
Discussed by: Vera Institute, ACLU, criminal justice reform advocates
Trump's proposed comprehensive crime bill—featuring mandatory minimums, expanded death penalty, restrictions on cashless bail, and cuts to community violence programs—triggers a third crime wave by 2027-2028. This scenario assumes mass incarceration policies destabilize communities that benefited from intervention programs, while federal immigration enforcement disrupts social networks. The DC police takeover serves as template for other cities, with military-style policing replacing community-based approaches. Researchers warn the 2020 spike followed social disruption; similar dynamics could emerge from aggressive enforcement and defunding of proven CVI programs.
6
Bipartisan Credit-Taking Sustains Investments
Discussed by: Criminal justice policy experts, Council on Criminal Justice researchers
Both parties claim credit for historic declines, creating political incentive to sustain what's working. Trump takes credit while quietly preserving Biden-era CVI funding; Democrats highlight their American Rescue Plan investments. California's $103 million CalVIP program demonstrates state-level commitment regardless of federal policy. The narrative shifts from 'whose policies worked' to 'how do we keep this going.' Mid-year 2026 data showing continued (if slower) declines reinforces that multiple approaches—enforcement plus intervention—work together. Political competition drives sustained investment rather than dismantling successful programs.
Historical Context
The Great Crime Decline of the 1990s-2000s
1991-2014
What Happened
After peaking in 1991, American crime fell continuously for two decades, with murder dropping 51% by 2014. The decline followed the crack epidemic's violence and coincided with mass incarceration, economic growth, the end of leaded gasoline exposure, and new policing strategies. Experts still debate which factors mattered most—CompStat, more prisons, less lead, aging demographics, or the crack market stabilizing.
Outcome
Short Term
Crime became a non-issue in national politics by the 2000s, enabling criminal justice reform discussions.
Long Term
Incarceration quintupled but scholars now question whether prison growth drove the decline or simply accompanied it.
Why It's Relevant Today
The current drop mirrors the 1990s in speed and scale, but with one key difference: this time, investment went to community programs rather than prisons.
The 2020 Pandemic Homicide Spike
2020-2021
What Happened
Homicides jumped 30% in 2020—the largest single-year increase on record—as COVID lockdowns disrupted schools, courts, social services, and community life. Unlike other crimes, which held steady or fell, murder surged nationwide but concentrated in disadvantaged communities. The spike fueled 'defund the police' backlash and made crime central to the 2024 election despite beginning under Trump.
Outcome
Short Term
Cities reversed police budget cuts and invested in both enforcement and community programs, creating a hybrid approach.
Long Term
The spike proved temporary, with murder falling back below pre-pandemic levels by 2025, but political damage to Democrats persisted.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2024-2025 decline represents a full reversal of the pandemic spike, suggesting it was driven by temporary disruption rather than permanent social breakdown.
The Kia Challenge Auto Theft Crisis
2022-2024
What Happened
A viral TikTok challenge exposed a security flaw in Kia and Hyundai vehicles lacking immobilizers. Teens filmed themselves stealing cars with just a USB cable. Thefts of these models spiked 1000% between 2020 and 2023, accounting for six of the ten most-stolen vehicles in 2023. At its peak, the trend caused at least 14 crashes and eight deaths.
Outcome
Short Term
Kia and Hyundai deployed software patches starting in February 2023, cutting theft rates by 53% for upgraded vehicles.
Long Term
Motor vehicle theft fell 18.6% in 2024, demonstrating how targeted interventions can reverse even viral crime trends.
Why It's Relevant Today
This episode shows how quickly crime can spike from social media contagion—and how quickly it can reverse with the right fix, offering a model for addressing other viral crime trends.
