Monica Duffy Toft

Rule Changes

Analyzing New START expiration consequences

On January 27, 2026, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been to symbolic annihilation in its 78-year history. The four-second advance from 2025's 89-second setting reflects what the Board called a year of escalating dangers: the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026 (ending 54 years of legally binding nuclear limits), aggressive nuclear modernization by the United States, Russia, and China, artificial intelligence supercharging disinformation that Nobel laureate Maria Ressa described as "informational armageddon," and the global rise of autocratic governments less accountable to their citizens.

Updated May 23