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Global wildfires set 2026 record as a strong El Niño builds

Global wildfires set 2026 record as a strong El Niño builds

Built World

An Alaska-sized area has already burned in four months, and forecasters say the second half could compound

May 12th, 2026: Record start to 2026 fire season made public

Overview

Satellites tracked 150 million hectares of burned land globally in the first four months of 2026. That is roughly the size of Alaska, and about double the historical average for January through April.

Fire crews have already been overwhelmed in Argentina, Chile, Japan, and parts of the United States. Africa alone has burned 85 million hectares, 23% above its prior record. Forecasters say a developing El Niño now looks unusually strong, peaking as the Northern Hemisphere enters fire season.

Why it matters

If a strong El Niño lands on a record fire year, the same crops, power grids, and insurance markets all get squeezed at once.

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Key Indicators

150M ha
Hectares burned globally
First four months of 2026 — roughly the area of Alaska.
~2x
Seasonal average
January–April burn area is about double the multi-year baseline.
85M ha
Africa burn area
23% above the prior record for the continent.
Strong
El Niño signal
NOAA says June–August signs point to an unusually strong event.

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Timeline

May 2023 May 2026

7 events Latest: May 12th, 2026 · 1 month ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. Record start to 2026 fire season made public

    Latest Data

    Bloomberg and GWIS publish satellite data showing 150 million hectares burned globally, the worst January–April on record. NOAA separately warns of a possibly exceptional El Niño for June–August.

  2. Africa passes its previous burn-area record

    Data

    GWIS data shows 85 million hectares burned across Africa year-to-date, 23% above the prior record.

  3. Unusual fires hit Japan

    Disaster

    Spring fires in Japan force evacuations and stretch local response, well above typical years.

  4. Argentina and Chile fires overwhelm response

    Disaster

    Hot, dry conditions across the Southern Cone push national fire services past capacity.

  5. ENSO returns to neutral

    Context

    Pacific conditions shift to neutral, ending the 2023–24 El Niño and 2024–25 La Niña cycle.

  6. 2023–24 El Niño peaks

    Context

    The prior El Niño tops out and helps drive 2024 to a record global average temperature.

  7. Canada's record fire season begins

    Context

    Early-season fires in Alberta foreshadow a record Canadian year that sends smoke into US cities.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1997–1998

1997–98 super El Niño and Southeast Asian haze

One of the strongest El Niños on record drove severe drought across Indonesia. Fires set to clear land burned out of control across Sumatra and Kalimantan, producing a regional haze that closed airports and schools in Singapore and Malaysia. The Asian Development Bank later put direct damages at around $9 billion.

Then

Health emergencies across six countries and a multi-month shutdown of regional aviation and shipping visibility.

Now

Spurred Indonesia's later attempts at peatland regulation and the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution.

Why this matters now

It is the cleanest precedent for what a strong El Niño can do on top of dry, fire-prone landscapes.

September 2019 – March 2020

Australian Black Summer

Sustained drought and record heat fueled fires that burned roughly 24 million hectares across Australia. The fires killed 33 people directly, destroyed more than 3,000 homes, and were estimated to have killed or displaced about 3 billion animals.

Then

Direct economic losses ran into the tens of billions of Australian dollars and triggered a national Royal Commission.

Now

Australia overhauled its disaster-recovery agency and tightened insurer reporting on bushfire exposure.

Why this matters now

Shows how a single severe season can reset insurance markets and emergency-management structures.

May – October 2023

Canada's 2023 fire season

About 18.5 million hectares burned across Canada, more than double the prior national record. Smoke pushed air quality in New York City to among the worst on the planet for several days in June, and at peak more than 100,000 people were under evacuation orders.

Then

Canada had to import firefighters from more than a dozen countries and the federal government stood up a permanent wildfire coordination center.

Now

Reinsurers re-priced North American wildfire risk and several US states tightened insurer rules on non-renewals.

Why this matters now

It is the most recent example of a single country's fire season breaking response capacity and reshaping insurance terms across the continent.

Sources

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