Pull to refresh
Logo
Daily Brief
Following Why Sign Up
British food and drink exports to EU down a third since Brexit

British food and drink exports to EU down a third since Brexit

Rule Changes

NFU data shows sugar, eggs and poultry hardest hit by border friction

Yesterday: NFU analysis shows exports to EU down more than a third

Overview

Updated 2 hours ago

British exports of food and drink to the European Union have fallen by more than a third since 2019, according to the National Farmers' Union's analysis of customs data. Sugar shipments dropped 70% in the year to July compared with the same period in 2019, poultry fell 53%, and sales of eggs and egg products for the confectionery and baking industries were down 65%.

The EU still buys 68% of Britain's agri-food exports, and the decline is not recovering on its own. It reflects the cost of export health certificates, border checks and dual certification that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement left in place after 2021. The UK and EU are now negotiating a sanitary and phytosanitary agreement meant to ease those barriers, but officials say implementation would take a year or more after a deal is signed.

Why it matters

British farmers' largest export market has shrunk a third; the border costs behind that decline are only now being negotiated away.

Questions about this story

Free account needed to ask — your question is kept and asked for you right after sign-up. Answers are public.

No questions yet — be the first to ask.

Key Indicators

>33%
Decline in food and drink exports to EU since 2019
NFU analysis of HMRC data for the year to July 2026 versus the same period in 2019.
70%
Drop in sugar exports to EU
Sharpest fall of any category in the year to July versus 2019.
74%
Fall in egg and egg product exports
Full-year comparison between 2019 and 2025.
£21bn
UK food and drink trade deficit in 2026
Largest since 2000, per the Food and Drink Federation's H1 figures.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

Sign up to generate historical perspectives on this story.

Log in Sign Up

People Involved

Tom Bradshaw
Tom Bradshaw
President, National Farmers' Union
Leading NFU's response to EU export decline

Organizations Involved

NF
National Farmers' Union
Trade association
Produced the export analysis driving current coverage

The NFU represents farmers and growers in England and Wales and lobbies on their behalf.
FD
Food and Drink Federation
Trade association
Publishes quarterly trade snapshots tracking the decline

The FDF represents UK food and drink manufacturers and publishes the trade data cited in most reporting on this issue.

Timeline

June 2016 October 2026

7 events Latest: Yesterday
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. NFU analysis shows exports to EU down more than a third

    Latest Data

    Sugar down 70%, eggs and egg products down 74%, poultry down 53% versus 2019.

  2. UK food and drink trade deficit hits £21bn

    Data

    FDF calls the deficit, the largest since 2000, a 'wake-up call' for the industry.

  3. NFU reports farm product sales to EU down 37.4%

    Data

    Analysis of the five years since 2019 confirms the slide is continuing.

  4. FDF reports food and drink exports to EU down 34%

    Data

    Trade body figures show the scale of decline caused by bureaucratic barriers.

  5. Export data source changes for GB-EU trade

    Data

    Intrastat replaced by customs declarations, making pre- and post-2021 figures not directly comparable.

  6. Transition period ends, Trade and Cooperation Agreement takes effect

    Treaty

    Zero-tariff trade continues but new customs paperwork, health certificates and border checks begin.

  7. UK votes to leave the European Union

    Referendum

    British voters choose to leave the EU by 52% to 48%, setting the stage for a renegotiated trade relationship.

Scenarios

1

UK-EU sanitary agreement slashes border checks, exports recover

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: Food and Drink Federation, Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy analysts

The UK and EU sign a sanitary and phytosanitary agreement removing routine border checks and export health certificates. Implementation takes at least a year, but exporters in sugar, poultry and dairy regain an estimated share of the lost EU market. Recovered volumes show up in HMRC data within two years of the deal entering force.

2

SPS talks stall, EU export decline continues

Likely Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: National Farmers' Union, trade analysts

Negotiations over the sanitary agreement drag on past 2027 without a deal, and the additional costs of dual certification keep pushing producers out of the EU market. Export volumes to the EU fall further year-on-year, and the food and drink trade deficit widens beyond £21bn.

3

Partial deal leaves trade well below pre-Brexit levels

Uncertain Resolves by Q2 2028

Discussed by: Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy researchers

A limited SPS agreement covers plants and animals but excludes technical barriers to trade in pharmaceuticals, chemicals, medical devices and beverages. Export variety to the EU stays roughly 50% below its 2017 level, and volumes stabilize at a permanently lower baseline. The UK food and drink trade deficit remains near record levels.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

February-September 2001

2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease halted all exports of British livestock and meat products. Over six million animals were culled and export markets closed for nearly a year while the disease was contained.

Then

UK meat exports collapsed almost overnight and took several years to rebuild as markets imposed strict health requirements.

Now

The outbreak reshaped British farming regulation and showed how quickly disease-driven trade barriers could wipe out export revenue in food sectors.

Why this matters now

The Food and Drink Federation notes current EU export volumes are only slightly higher than during the 2001 crisis, framing Brexit's bureaucratic barriers as comparable in scale to a national veterinary emergency.

March 2020-2021

COVID-19 pandemic trade disruption (2020-2021)

Border closures and lockdowns during the pandemic disrupted global food supply chains, cutting British food and drink export volumes to their lowest points in the post-Brexit period.

Then

Export volumes fell sharply in 2020 and 2021, with the effect compounded by the transition to new EU customs arrangements.

Now

Volumes recovered partially after 2021, but pre-pandemic levels never returned, and the pandemic's effects are often cited alongside Brexit friction in explaining the persistent export gap.

Why this matters now

The export decline since Brexit is often compared to the pandemic's trading collapse, making clear that the current shortfall is structural rather than a temporary disruption.

Sources

(8)
+4
The Guardian Food and Drink Federation Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy GOV.UK The Guardian The Guardian Food and Drink Federation The Guardian