Overview
Congress is clawing its way back from catastrophe. After a record-breaking 43-day government shutdown that paralyzed federal agencies from October through mid-November 2025, the House just passed a $60+ billion appropriations package by an overwhelming 397-28 vote. The bill funds nuclear weapons modernization to counter China and Russia, strengthens anti-cartel enforcement targeting fentanyl, and invests in port infrastructure and electrical grid resilience. It's the fourth major funding package Congress has enacted for fiscal year 2026—six of twelve appropriations bills now complete.
The stakes couldn't be higher. With the current continuing resolution expiring January 30, Congress has three weeks to pass the remaining six bills or risk another shutdown. This isn't routine budgeting—it's a test of whether divided government can function. The House bill represents rare bipartisan compromise, negotiated between Republican Chairman Tom Cole and Democratic Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro after months of partisan gridlock. The Senate now holds the cards, and time is running out.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The committee responsible for drafting legislation to allocate federal funds across government agencies.
The Senate counterpart responsible for reviewing and amending House appropriations bills.
Timeline
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House Passes $60B+ Appropriations Package 397-28
Legislative VictoryHouse passed H.R. 6938 by overwhelming bipartisan vote, funding nuclear modernization, anti-cartel enforcement, infrastructure, and grid resilience. Six of twelve FY2026 bills now enacted.
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House Rules Committee Advances Three-Bill Package
Legislative ProcessRules Committee voted 8-3 to advance H.R. 6938, clearing the way for floor consideration of Commerce-Justice-Science, Energy and Water, and Interior-Environment appropriations.
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Cole-Collins Reach Bicameral Funding Deal
NegotiationChairman Tom Cole and Chair Susan Collins announced agreement on allocations for remaining nine bills, setting spending below CR levels.
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43-Day Shutdown Ends; First Three Bills Enacted
ResolutionPresident Trump signed H.R. 5371, ending the longest government shutdown in history and enacting Agriculture, Military Construction/VA, and Legislative Branch appropriations through September 30, 2026. Continuing resolution funds remaining agencies through January 30, 2026.
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Government Shutdown Begins
CrisisFederal government shut down as fiscal year began without enacted appropriations, starting what would become the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
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House Committee Adopts Allocations on Party-Line Vote
Legislative ProcessHouse Appropriations Committee adopted full FY2026 subcommittee allocations by partisan 35-26 vote, signaling deep divisions.
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House Committee Begins FY2026 Markups
Legislative ProcessHouse Appropriations Committee started marking up FY2026 spending bills, beginning the formal appropriations process.
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Trump Submits 'Skinny Budget' for FY2026
Budget DevelopmentPresident Trump submitted an abbreviated FY2026 budget proposal to Congress, setting the stage for appropriations battles.
Scenarios
Senate Passes Bills, Government Stays Open Through September
Discussed by: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, National Association of Counties, congressional leadership statements
The Senate passes H.R. 6938 and the remaining appropriations bills before January 30, completing all twelve FY2026 bills through regular order for the first time in years. This outcome depends on Chair Collins maintaining bipartisan support and avoiding partisan amendments that could derail negotiations. The deal holds because both parties want to avoid another shutdown after the political damage from the 43-day closure. Defense hawks get nuclear modernization funding, Democrats secure social program protections, and Congress proves divided government can function. President Trump signs the bills, and federal agencies operate with full-year certainty through September 30.
Short-Term CR Kicks Deadline to Spring, Omnibus Likely
Discussed by: Pew Research analysis of congressional patterns, appropriations experts cited in Roll Call and Federal News Network
Senate floor action stalls as partisan disagreements over defense spending levels, social programs, or policy riders bog down negotiations. With January 30 approaching and no clear path forward, Congress passes another continuing resolution extending current funding levels into March or April. The delay pushes final decisions past the CR deadline, forcing negotiators to bundle remaining bills into a massive omnibus package negotiated by leadership behind closed doors—precisely the outcome Chairman Cole sought to avoid. This mirrors historical patterns: Congress has passed all appropriations on time only four times since 1977.
Negotiations Collapse, Government Shuts Down Again
Discussed by: Shutdown warnings from Connecticut Mirror, NBC analysis of partisan divides, Holland & Knight appropriations outlook
Hardline factions in either chamber refuse to support compromise bills, viewing the spending levels as too high or too low. Senate amendments unravel the Cole-Collins framework, and House Republicans can't deliver votes for revised legislation given their three-vote margin. The January 30 deadline arrives without a deal, triggering a second shutdown in the same fiscal year. Public backlash would be severe after the 43-day closure, but partisan positioning ahead of future elections could override political pragmatism. This scenario becomes more likely if unexpected crises or controversial policy riders get attached to must-pass bills.
Historical Context
1995-96 Clinton-Gingrich Shutdowns
November 1995 - January 1996What Happened
House Speaker Newt Gingrich and the Republican-controlled Congress clashed with President Bill Clinton over budget cuts, leading to two shutdowns totaling 26 days. Gingrich demanded deep spending cuts and wanted to use Congressional Budget Office projections showing less optimistic revenue, requiring steeper cuts than Clinton would accept. The standoff became personal when Gingrich publicly complained about feeling snubbed on Air Force One, earning tabloid ridicule and political backlash.
Outcome
Short term: Republicans accepted Clinton's budget after 21-day shutdown; public polling blamed GOP for the crisis.
Long term: Clinton's handling boosted his 1996 reelection; the episode became a cautionary tale about shutdown politics for a generation.
Why It's Relevant
The 1995-96 shutdowns demonstrated that voters punish the party seen as causing gridlock, a lesson that may explain why both parties sought bipartisan deals to end the 2025 shutdown and avoid another before January 30, 2026.
2018-19 Trump Border Wall Shutdown
December 2018 - January 2019What Happened
President Trump demanded $5.7 billion for a border wall along the southern border, telling Democratic leaders in a televised Oval Office meeting, "I am proud to shut down the government for border security." When Congress refused, the government closed for 35 days—then the longest shutdown in history. Some 380,000 federal workers were furloughed while another 420,000 worked without pay.
Outcome
Short term: Trump signed a stopgap bill on January 25, 2019, reopening government until February 15 without wall funding.
Long term: Trump's initial demand failed; he later declared a national emergency to redirect military construction funds to the wall.
Why It's Relevant
The 2018-19 shutdown held the "longest ever" record until the 2025 FY2026 shutdown surpassed it at 43 days, showing how budget standoffs have grown more severe. Both episodes illustrate the limits of presidential leverage when Senate rules require bipartisan support.
Congressional Appropriations Struggles Since 1977
1977 - PresentWhat Happened
Congress has struggled to pass all appropriations bills on time for decades, succeeding only four times since the current budget process began in 1977 (fiscal years 1977, 1989, 1995, and 1997). Twenty-one funding gaps have occurred since 1980, when Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti's legal opinion required shutdowns during lapses. About half lasted three days or less, but several stretched for weeks.
Outcome
Short term: Most years end with omnibus packages or continuing resolutions rather than individual bills passed through regular order.
Long term: The breakdown of regular order concentrates power in leadership hands and reduces transparency in spending decisions.
Why It's Relevant
The FY2026 process mirrors this historical pattern: partisan gridlock, missed deadlines, a shutdown, and eventual bipartisan deals. Chairman Cole's push for regular order represents an attempt to break the cycle—but with only six of twelve bills enacted and a January 30 deadline looming, history suggests another omnibus may be inevitable.