1
Trump signs the Graham act into law by year's end
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: NPR, CBS News, and Speaker Mike Johnson's own comments
The House takes up the Senate bill after returning in September and passes it unchanged. With Johnson supportive and Trump signaling agreement after the tariff-discretion deal, the president signs it. The law's teeth then depend on whether he actually uses the tariff power.
2
Law passes but the tariffs never land
Uncertain
Resolves by Aug 7, 2027
Discussed by: Axios and analysts at CDM warning the bill could complicate Trump's talks with Putin
Even if the bill becomes law, the president holds full discretion over the rate and a waiver. He could keep tariffs at zero to preserve leverage in negotiations with Moscow, leaving China and India untouched. The measure would exist on paper without changing what buyers pay.
3
House rewrites the bill, forcing another Senate vote
Possible
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: The Hill and reporting on House-Senate differences over Ukraine measures
The House, which passed its own version in June, amends the Senate text rather than accepting it. Any changes would send the bill back to the Senate, delaying final passage and reopening fights over the tariff mechanism and Iran provisions.
4
Bill dies without becoming law
Unlikely
Resolves by Jan 3, 2027
Discussed by: Coverage noting the House recess and past executive resistance to mandatory sanctions
The House never brings the bill to a final vote, or negotiations collapse over the tariff terms. The measure stalls and expires when the 119th Congress adjourns, forcing supporters to start over in the next Congress.
5
India pushes back against tariff threat
Possible
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Hindustan Times, Indian Ministry of External Affairs
India's foreign ministry said it would 'take all necessary measures to protect its trade and economic interests' after the House passed the bill. New Delhi has already signaled it will not cut Russian oil purchases without alternative supply, and could retaliate with its own tariffs or seek a waiver from Washington.
6
Tariffs stay at zero through the November midterms
Deadline passed (Nov 3, 2026)
Discussed by: Reuters
Reuters reports the law's immediate impact may be limited because Trump is reluctant to push consumer prices higher before the November midterm elections. He can keep the tariff at zero and use the threat as leverage in talks with Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi.
7
Trump sets a token tariff to satisfy the law
Deadline passed (Oct 18, 2026)
Discussed by: RFE/RL, noting the law gives Trump discretion over the rate
To meet the October 18 deadline without raising consumer prices, Trump could impose a low-rate tariff, perhaps 10-15%, on goods from China and India. That would satisfy the law while leaving room for negotiation with Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi.
8
Trump uses the law as leverage in the Xi meeting
Deadline passed (Sep 24, 2026)
Discussed by: Reuters via Meduza
Trump meets Xi Jinping on September 24. Reuters reports the signing may be timed to give Trump additional leverage in that meeting. He could offer to keep tariffs at zero in exchange for Chinese concessions on trade or Ukraine. The law's 30-day deadline would still loom.
9
Trump imposes tariffs on top buyers by October 18
Deadline passed (Oct 18, 2026)
Discussed by: FDD Action and Davis Polk's client update outlining the October 18 deadline
Trump imposes duties up to 100% on goods from any top-five buyer of Russian crude oil or natural gas still purchasing after the deadline. Gas importers below the 15% threshold with demonstrated cuts would be exempt. The rate and country list are his choice, subject to the congressional justification due October 8.
10
Administration skips October 18 tariffs despite Senate pressure
Deadline passed (Oct 18, 2026)
Discussed by: Shaheen-Wicker letter; Reuters reporting on Trump's reluctance to raise prices before the midterms
The October 18 deadline passes without duties being imposed, keeping tariffs at zero to avoid higher prices before the November midterms. Senators who pressed for early enforcement escalate, demanding the administration either act or explain why it has not.
11
Congress challenges the waiver before the midterms
Deadline passed (Nov 3, 2026)
Discussed by: Sens. Richard Blumenthal and Thom Tillis, Reps. Don Bacon and Michael McCaul
Bipartisan criticism of the waiver could push Congress to hold hearings or try to force enforcement. Blumenthal called the move a "craven, cowardly action"; Tillis asked what part of an 86-11 law the president does not understand.
12
Administration lifts the waiver after the 60-day review
Uncertain
Resolves by Dec 16, 2026
Discussed by: Secretary of State Marco Rubio's Oct. 17 remarks reported by NBC News
Rubio said Trump wants 60 days to analyze the waiver's impact on the U.S. and global economy, a window running to mid-December. The order sets no expiration date, so Trump can restore the tariffs and sanctions whenever he decides. If fuel prices fall or Moscow stalls in peace talks, he could act sooner.
