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International student arrivals in the US fall to lowest level since 2020

International student arrivals in the US fall to lowest level since 2020

Rule Changes

August arrivals dropped 28% from 2024, led by steep declines from China and India, as universities warn of consequences for research

2 days ago: Nature reports the plunge and its effects on science

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

In August 2026, 277,000 people arrived in the United States on student visas. In August 2024, the figure was 387,000. That is a 28% drop and the lowest August count since 2020, when the pandemic shut borders.

Students from China and India account for most of the gap: their August arrivals fell by roughly 23,000 and 50,000 respectively between the two years. International students earned 38% of US science and engineering PhDs in 2024, so universities see the decline as a workforce problem, not just a tuition problem.

Why it matters

International students fill 38% of US science and engineering PhD slots. Fewer arrivals shrink the research workforce universities depend on.

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Key Indicators

277,000
Student-visa arrivals in August 2026
Down from 387,000 in August 2024, according to National Travel and Tourism Office data.
28%
Drop in August arrivals since 2024
The lowest August level since 2020.
21%
Fall in PhD applications, 2025 to 2026
Based on a survey of 55 Association of American Universities members.
38%
Share of US science and engineering PhDs earned by international students
Figure for 2024, the most recent cited by Nature.
6.7%
Decline in total international enrollment since October 2024
Presidents' Alliance analysis of October 2026 SEVIS data: about 1.09 million students, roughly 78,000 fewer than two years earlier.

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People Involved

NG
Nigel Goldenfeld
Physicist, University of California, San Diego
Active researcher; quoted in Nature's report
 Chris Glass
Chris Glass
Higher-education researcher, Boston College
Active researcher; quoted in Nature's report

Organizations Involved

NT
National Travel and Tourism Office
US federal statistical office
Source of the monthly arrivals data showing the drop

The Commerce Department office that publishes monthly counts of foreign visitors to the US, including student-visa holders.
AA
Association of American Universities
University research coalition
Surveyed its members on PhD applications

A coalition of research-intensive North American universities that surveys members on admissions and research trends.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
Federal agency
Proposed a $100,000 fee on extended Optional Practical Training

The agency that administers student-visa compliance and the Optional Practical Training work program.
AI
NAFSA: Association of International Educators
International education association
Surveyed 203 colleges on fall 2026 enrollment

An association of international-education professionals that tracks enrollment trends and challenges visa rules in court.

Timeline

2025 November 2026

8 events Latest: 2 days ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date

  1. Nature reports the plunge and its effects on science

    Latest Report

    PhD applications to 55 major research universities fell 21% from 2025 to 2026.

  2. DHS proposes $100,000 fee on extended OPT

    Rule Changes

    The levy would apply to science and engineering students staying to work after graduation; judges have suspended it.

  3. Total international enrollment falls 6.7% in two years

    Data

    SEVIS data show about 1.09 million international students, roughly 78,000 fewer than October 2024.

  4. Student-visa arrivals hit 277,000, lowest since 2020

    Data

    August arrivals fall 28% from 387,000 in August 2024, with China and India driving the drop.

  5. US proposes four-year visa limit and 30-day departure rule

    Rule Changes

    The proposal would end the duration-of-status system that let students move from study into OPT work.

  6. August student-visa arrivals fall 19% year over year

    Data

    Preliminary National Travel and Tourism Office figures show the first steep drop in student arrivals.

  7. Trump takes office and begins tightening visa rules

    Rule Changes

    The new administration introduces restrictions on student visas and international travel over the following months.

  8. State Department issues 23% fewer student visas than 2024

    Data

    F-1 degree-student visas fell by about a third; Indian issuances dropped 57% and Chinese 28%.

Scenarios

1

Arrivals fall again in 2027 as the four-year visa limit takes effect

Possible Resolves by Nov 30, 2027

Discussed by: Higher-education researchers cited by Nature and ICEF Monitor

Courts block some measures, but the end of duration of status forces students to request extensions after four years with no guarantee of approval. Because almost all OPT participation happens after four years of study, the rule removes a main reason Indian students choose the US. If it survives litigation, August 2027 arrivals come in below the 2026 level.

2

Courts strike down the OPT fee and enrollment steadies

Uncertain Resolves by Nov 30, 2027

Discussed by: Federal judges who suspended the fee; NAFSA litigation

Federal judges have already suspended the $100,000 OPT charge and other immigration limits. If the duration-of-status rule falls too, the policy risk that Chris Glass says now drives student decisions eases. Total enrollment for 2026/27 holds at or above the prior year rather than falling further.

3

The $100,000 OPT fee becomes a final rule

Unlikely Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: Department of Homeland Security proposal, reported by Nature

The levy was issued as a proposal and suspended in court. A final rule would put a stated price on the post-graduation work path that supplies US labs and companies with foreign-trained scientists. DHS says the fee targets fraud and protects US workers; universities say it would close the main pipeline into American research jobs.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

March 2020

COVID-19 border closures (2020)

Pandemic travel bans and consulate closures cut student-visa arrivals to the lowest levels in years. Campuses moved classes online and new international enrollment collapsed.

Then

Universities lost tuition revenue and deferred admissions for a year or more.

Now

Enrollment rebounded through 2022 and 2023 as restrictions lifted and visa processing restarted.

Why this matters now

Nature uses 2020 as the benchmark: August 2026 arrivals are the lowest since that pandemic trough, but this time the cause is policy rather than a global shutdown.

2017-2019

First Trump administration travel restrictions (2017-2019)

Early travel bans and tighter vetting prompted warnings of an enrollment slump. New international student enrollment fell each year, dropping 11.4% cumulatively from 2016 to 2019.

Then

New enrollment declined annually while total enrollment held roughly flat.

Now

Overall international enrollment fell by less than one percentage point from 2016/17 to 2019/20, per IIE data cited by the Presidents' Alliance.

Why this matters now

The current fall is faster on the total measure: 6.7% in two years, against 0.3% over four years in the earlier period.

2025-2026

Canada, UK and Australia tighten student rules (2025-2026)

Several major English-speaking destinations placed new limits on international students and saw enrollment drop as a result.

Then

Each country recorded fewer international enrollments after the limits took effect.

Now

Not established in the reporting cited here.

Why this matters now

The declines are not unique to the US, but Boston College's Chris Glass describes US policies as especially restrictive.

Sources

(8)
+2
Nature OWS Pakistan Higher Ed Dive ICEF Monitor Presidents' Alliance Los Angeles Times Times Higher Education Nature