Intrade shut out of the U.S. (2012)
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Intrade, an Irish prediction market with a large American user base, alleging it offered off-exchange options on commodities and violated a 2005 settlement. Intrade blocked U.S. customers rather than fight the case to a conclusion.
American traders lost access to what was then the biggest prediction market in the world.
Intrade ceased operations in 2013. For a decade afterward, no prediction market operated inside U.S. registration.
Polymarket spent years offshore, the position Intrade died in. The exchange, clearinghouse and broker registrations are the route out of it.
