Anchor
Russia linked to two-year drone campaign over Europe launched from 'shadow fleet' ships
Force in PlayAn IISS report maps 144 drone sightings that closed airports and probed NATO air defenses, tracing many back to sanctions-dodging tankers.
July 2nd, 2026: IISS links the drone campaign to shadow-fleet shipsNew here? Follow stories to track developments over time. Create a free account to get updates when stories you care about change.
Overview
Updated Jul 2For most of two years, drones kept appearing over European airports and military bases. Flights stopped. Fighter jets scrambled. Nobody could prove who sent them. On July 2, 2026, a London defense think tank said it now can: Russia, launching many of the drones from tankers in its covert 'shadow fleet.'
The International Institute for Strategic Studies plotted 144 suspected sightings across six NATO countries and matched several to the movements of specific ships. The finding names a method Europe struggled to counter for two years. Each drone stayed small enough, and deniable enough, to avoid the one thing that would force NATO to fight back.
Why it matters
Russia found a way to shut European airports and map NATO's air defenses without firing a shot NATO could answer, and it worked for two years.
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Key Indicators
144
Suspected drone sightings
Plotted by the IISS across Europe between 2024 and 2026.
6
NATO members targeted
Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark.
20
Drones over one Danish port in a night
Up to 20 flew over Koege on Jan. 3, 2025, near the shadow ship Arctica.
0
Collective NATO responses triggered
Each incident stayed below the threshold for an Article 5 reply.
Related Media
Shadow fleet' ships moving sanctioned oil reflagged to Russia at rising rate | Shipping industry | The Guardian
France: Captain of tanker linked to Russian 'shadow fleet' charged - BBC News
One of Russia's 'shadow fleet' may have sabotaged power cables in the Baltic Sea. But what is it? - ABC News
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Russia linked to two-year drone campaign over Europe launched from 'shadow fleet' ships
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People Involved
Organizations Involved
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Defense think tank
Author of the July 2026 report
A London-based research institute that studies military and security affairs.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
Military alliance
Weighing how to respond below the threshold of war
A 32-member defense alliance whose Article 5 treats an attack on one member as an attack on all.
Timeline
December 2024 July 2026
9 events
Latest: July 2nd, 2026 · 2 months ago
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-
IISS links the drone campaign to shadow-fleet ships
Latest ReportThe think tank published its finding that Russia likely launched many of the 144 plotted drones from tankers in its covert shadow fleet.
-
Putin denies a sabotage campaign
StatementRussia's president publicly rejected claims that Moscow was running a sabotage or disruption campaign against European countries.
-
Drones spotted off Dublin as a shadow ship circles
IncidentFour large drones were seen near an Irish navy ship off Dublin while the shadow vessel Vezhen sailed in circles nearby.
-
Drones appear over Dutch and Belgian nuclear-linked bases
IncidentSightings over bases in the Netherlands and Belgium, including sites believed to store US B61 nuclear bombs, drove the campaign to its peak.
-
Denmark bans civilian drone flights
PolicyAfter repeated sightings over airports and military bases, Denmark barred civilian drone flights nationwide during a period of heightened readiness.
-
Drones close Copenhagen and Oslo airports
IncidentSightings shut both airports, cancelling more than 100 flights. Frederiksen called it the most serious attack on Danish infrastructure to date.
-
France boards the tanker Boracay
EnforcementThe French military boarded a suspected shadow-fleet vessel. Macron said he could not rule out its role in the Denmark drone flights.
-
Up to 20 drones fly over a Danish port
IncidentAs the shadow ship Arctica sailed the Danish coast, up to 20 drones crossed the port of Koege before heading out to sea.
-
Finland seizes the tanker Eagle S over a cut cable
InvestigationFinnish authorities boarded a shadow-fleet tanker suspected of dragging its anchor to sever an undersea power cable, the first such seizure in the Baltic.
Historical Context
3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.
October 1981
'Whiskey on the Rocks' Soviet submarine incident (1981)
A Soviet submarine ran aground inside restricted Swedish waters near a naval base. It began a decade of suspected Soviet undersea incursions that tested how Sweden and NATO watched and defended their coasts.
Then
Sweden detained the crew and lodged formal protests before releasing the submarine.
Now
The incursions became a defining case of Cold War probing: pressure and reconnaissance kept deliberately below the line of open conflict.
Why this matters now
Probing a rival's defenses to map gaps without starting a war is an old Russian playbook. The drones are a modern, airborne version of the same tactic.
December 2018
Gatwick Airport drone shutdown (2018)
Drone sightings shut London's Gatwick Airport for parts of three days during the Christmas rush, grounding roughly 1,000 flights and stranding over 100,000 travelers. Police never identified who flew the drones.
Then
The airport and military scrambled counter-drone gear, but the disruption ran its course before the sightings stopped.
Now
It exposed how a few small drones can paralyze a major airport and how hard the operators are to catch.
Why this matters now
Gatwick was the preview: cheap drones, huge disruption, no clear culprit. The IISS report describes the same effect used on purpose, at scale, across a continent.
September 2022
Nord Stream pipeline sabotage (2022)
Underwater blasts ruptured the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The attack was clearly deliberate, but years of investigation never produced an agreed, prosecutable culprit. Governments traded accusations without consensus.
Then
Europe treated undersea infrastructure as a live target and raised naval patrols in the Baltic.
Now
The case showed how an attacker can inflict major damage while keeping attribution murky enough to avoid a unified military response.
Why this matters now
The drone campaign runs on the same logic: hit or probe critical infrastructure while staying deniable enough to dodge NATO's collective trigger.