Vladimir Putin

North Korea's primary military partner and alternative patron to China

North Korea sealed its borders on January 23, 2020, before most countries had heard of COVID-19. For six years, the country operated in near-total isolation — trade with China collapsed by 96%, food availability dropped to levels not seen since the famine that killed hundreds of thousands in the 1990s, and not a single foreign tourist set foot in the country for four years. On March 12, 2026, a passenger train departed Beijing for Pyongyang for the first time since that closure, carrying diplomats and businesspeople in just two carriages on a 25-hour journey through the border city of Dandong. Eighteen days later, on March 30, Air China resumed direct flights between Beijing and Pyongyang — the first commercial air service between the two capitals since January 2020. Both services operate under strict restrictions: train passengers must hold business visas, and air travelers are limited to those with official or special-purpose authorization.

Updated Mar 30

Expanding arms exports to Iran amid ongoing war in Ukraine

In June 2025, Israeli and American strikes destroyed roughly a third of Iran's air defense network in twelve days. Since then, leaked Russian documents and follow‑on reporting have shown Tehran spending billions to replace what it lost—and then some, including a secret €500 million agreement for 500 Verba shoulder‑fired launchers and 2,500 missiles, plus long‑range S‑400 batteries and up to 48 Su‑35 fighter jets whose first 16 airframes are now reported to be in production for Iran. Analysts say this mix of high‑end systems and widely dispersed man‑portable air‑defense systems is designed to make any future U.S. or Israeli air campaign far more complex and costly.

Updated Mar 7

Agreed to Trump's request for temporary pause in energy infrastructure strikes until February 1; continues ordering expansion of Ukraine operations

Russia intensified its energy warfare campaign throughout January and early February 2026, launching sustained strikes that killed at least 13 people and left 1.2 million properties without power, before President Donald Trump brokered a brief pause that expired on February 1. Following the January 9 and 13 attacks that deployed over 500 drones and missiles, Russia unleashed barrages on January 24-25 and February 2-3, 24-26, and others using hundreds of drones and missiles—including rare ballistic missiles—targeting power plants, substations, and nuclear-linked infrastructure in regions like Kharkiv, Odesa, Kyiv, and western Ukraine, causing repeated blackouts for tens of thousands amid subzero temperatures and reducing generation capacity to 14 gigawatts (GW)—less than half pre-invasion levels.

Updated Feb 27

Maintaining demand for entire Donbas region, engaging in talks while describing territorial issue as 'fundamental importance'

After nearly four years of war, Ukraine's allies continue racing to finalize security commitments amid persistent Russian military pressure and a critical air defense gap. In early January 2026, the Coalition of the Willing's Paris summit produced a declaration from 35 countries for robust guarantees, including US-led ceasefire monitoring and UK-France pledges for 15,000 troops in military hubs post-ceasefire. Trump and Zelenskyy finalized US security terms at Davos, with envoy Witkoff noting territory as the sole remaining issue. At the February 2026 Munich Security Conference, Secretary Rubio stated issues have 'narrowed' though challenges persist, confirming Geneva talks scheduled for February 17-18 with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner.

Updated Feb 25

Russia signals dissatisfaction with territorial concessions alone; reaffirms broader war goals including NATO dismantling.

Since early December 2025, the war has featured intensified winter ground operations in Kharkiv and Donetsk alongside massive drone and missile campaigns targeting each side's war economies. Russia's February 16-17 barrage of 425 drones and 29 missiles coincided with Geneva trilateral talks that concluded February 18 with limited military progress but no political breakthroughs on territorial compromises or security guarantees—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy deemed outcomes 'not sufficient' and called for a follow-up meeting later in February. Ukraine responded with deep strikes, including the February 21 hit on Votkinsk missile plant 1,300 km inside Russia using indigenous cruise missiles, while reporting marginal advances in central Kupyansk as of February 19.

Updated Feb 21

Named as responsible for Navalny's death by five European governments

Alexei Navalny survived one poisoning attempt with a military-grade nerve agent in August 2020. He did not survive the second. On the two-year anniversary of his death in an Arctic prison, five European nations announced laboratory confirmation that Russian authorities killed him with epibatidine—a toxin found in South American poison dart frogs that does not exist naturally anywhere in Russia. The coordinated announcement at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026, marks the first formal attribution of Navalny's death to the Russian state, backed by forensic evidence from tissue samples covertly obtained and smuggled out of Russia.

Updated Feb 16

Managing expanded North Korean military cooperation

North Korea has not sent combat troops abroad since the Korean War ended in 1953. That changed in October 2024, when approximately 12,000 to 15,000 North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia's Kursk region to fight alongside Russian forces against Ukraine. By February 2026, an estimated 6,000 of those troops have been killed or wounded—making this North Korea's third deadliest military conflict.

Updated Feb 16

Directing Russia's military campaign while engaging in peace talks

Russia continues massive winter strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians amid advancing trilateral peace talks. A week after the February 4-5 Abu Dhabi round yielded a 314-POW exchange and US-Russia military dialogue, Russia launched major attacks including 408 drones/39 missiles on February 6-7 targeting energy substations and the February 13 assault with 219 drones/24 missiles killing one in Odesa. Zelenskyy accused Russia of bad faith while confirming a third round of talks for next week.

Updated Feb 13

Subject to ICC arrest warrant; directing invasion

Russian drone operators watched a bus full of miners leaving their shift in Ternivka on February 1, 2026, deliberately striking the civilian vehicle and killing 15 despite recognizing it as non-military. The attack on the exact day a Trump-brokered pause expired drew international condemnation, including from EU Ambassador Katarina Mathernova who questioned if explosions and dead civilians represent a ceasefire. Russia then escalated with 171 drones and a missile on February 2, followed by massive barrages of over 400 drones/missiles on February 6-7 and February 9, killing at least 18 more civilians including a mother and child in Kharkiv. Most recently, on February 11-12, Russia launched 244 total missiles and drones targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and Kharkiv, injuring at least 7 civilians and leaving over 107,000 residents without power amid freezing temperatures.

Updated Feb 12

Directing military campaign now entering fourth year

Russia began systematically targeting Ukraine's power grid in October 2022. By early February 2026, after a brief U.S.-brokered pause ended on February 2, Russia launched its largest energy strikes of the year—over 70 missiles and 450 drones—hitting thermal plants in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odesa regions amid temperatures near -20°C, leaving over 1,000 Kyiv buildings without heat and power; strikes continued with a massive February 6-7 barrage (39 missiles, 408 drones) damaging DTEK plants (10th attack since October) and substations critical to nuclear power, blacking out 600,000 in Lviv.

Updated Feb 11

No new response post-expiration; prior extension offer unreciprocated

For fifty-three years, binding agreements constrained the world's two largest nuclear arsenals. That era ended on February 5, 2026, when the New START treaty expired at midnight without a successor, as confirmed by President Trump who rejected a Russian extension offer and directed work on a new pact including China. The United States and Russia now face no legal limits on their combined stockpile of roughly 10,700 nuclear warheads.

Updated Feb 5

Seeking reliable Asian partners and sanctions‑resilient trade with India

On December 5, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in New Delhi for the 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit and unveiled a 'Programme for Economic Cooperation' through 2030 aiming to boost annual trade to about $100 billion and diversify beyond oil and arms, including joint weapons production, a urea plant, agriculture, health, shipping, labor mobility, and a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union despite looming US sanctions.

Updated Feb 5

War in Ukraine drives the sanctions regime these carve-outs navigate

Sanctions are supposed to close doors. On December 17, the U.S. quietly propped two doors back open—again—even as it slammed others shut. One narrow lane keeps Sakhalin-2 crude flowing to Japan. The other preserves financial channels for civil nuclear projects, even when payments touch sanctioned Russian banks. Both carve-outs now run through June 18, 2026.

Updated Jan 30

Authorizes and politically owns the long‑running campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure

Since October 2022, Russia has waged a parallel war on Ukraine's electricity, heating and transport systems, launching repeated waves of missiles and drones at power plants, high-voltage substations, rail hubs and ports. The campaign has dramatically intensified in the winter of 2025–26, with near-daily massive barrages destroying 70% of Ukraine's generating capacity and forcing the government to declare a formal energy emergency on January 15, 2026. The grid now meets only 60% of national electricity needs, leaving millions without heat or power amid temperatures as low as minus 20°C.

Updated Jan 21

Russian president maintaining categorical rejection of NATO-country peacekeepers; received U.S.-Ukraine peace plan via envoy Dmitriev on Jan. 7, response pending

By late December 2025, months of intensive U.S.–Ukraine–Russia shuttle diplomacy produced a breakthrough: the controversial 28‑point plan that had alarmed Kyiv and European allies was replaced by a revised 20‑point framework that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said was "90 percent agreed" with Washington, including "100 percent" consensus on U.S.–Ukraine security guarantees. The new framework—hammered out through parallel Miami sessions with Ukrainian officials led by Rustem Umerov and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, then refined in a December 28 Mar‑a‑Lago summit between Trump and Zelenskyy—offers Ukraine NATO Article 5‑style security guarantees for at least 15 years, maintains Ukraine's 800,000‑strong military, and envisions a demilitarized zone along current battle lines in Donetsk overseen by international monitors. On January 8, 2026, Zelenskyy announced that the bilateral U.S.–Ukraine security guarantee document is now "essentially ready" to be finalized at the highest level with President Trump.

Updated Jan 11

In power since 1999, leading invasion of Ukraine

At dawn on June 1, 2025, Ukraine's Security Service pulled off the largest covert drone strike in history. One hundred seventeen drones, smuggled into Russia inside fake shipping containers and hidden in truck cabs, launched from five locations spanning five time zones. They hit five Russian air bases simultaneously, destroying or damaging 41 strategic bombers—including irreplaceable Soviet-era Tu-95s and Tu-22M3s—worth $7 billion. The unwitting truck drivers thought they were hauling prefab houses. One died in the explosions. Four were arrested by the FSB.

Updated Jan 11

Directing military operations in Ukraine, wanted by ICC for war crimes

On December 28, President Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy projected cautious optimism at Mar-a-Lago, announcing 90% agreement on a revised 20-point peace framework—but the next day Russia claimed Ukraine attacked Putin's residence with drones, a charge Kyiv denies as fabricated to sabotage talks. The alleged attack crystallizes the fragility of negotiations: even as diplomats inch toward compromise, the shadow war continues and Moscow weaponizes accusations to "toughen" its bargaining position. Nearly four years after invasion, the question isn't whether a deal is close—it's whether either side can stop fighting long enough to sign one.

Updated Dec 31, 2025

Providing North Korea with advanced weapons technology in exchange for munitions and troops

North Korea has conducted over 272 missile launches since 2012, with the pace accelerating dramatically. In late December 2025, Kim Jong Un watched cruise missiles fly for nearly three hours before hitting their targets, declaring the need for 'unlimited and sustained' nuclear expansion. Days earlier, he revealed an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered submarine under construction—potentially with Russian assistance—and oversaw tests of new anti-air missiles hitting targets at 200 km altitude. Russia is now feeding Pyongyang advanced missile and space technology in exchange for artillery shells and troops for Ukraine—obliterating what's left of international sanctions.

Updated Dec 29, 2025

Admitted Russian air defenses were active but has not prosecuted anyone

On December 25, 2024, Russian anti-aircraft fire shredded an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet carrying 67 people. The pilots—hydraulics destroyed, controls failing—flew the crippled Embraer 190 across the Caspian Sea for an emergency landing. They nearly made it. Thirty-eight people died in the crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Twenty-nine survived because of the crew's last-minute heroics.

Updated Dec 26, 2025

Demanding Ukrainian neutrality and territorial terms while pressing militarily

Zelensky just did something he once treated as untouchable: he offered to drop Ukraine’s NATO bid. Not as surrender, but as a trade—Kyiv gives up the alliance path, and the West gives Ukraine legally binding protection strong enough to scare Moscow off for good.

Updated Dec 14, 2025

Continuing long-range strike campaign while backing maximal territorial demands

Russia didn’t just strike Ukraine overnight. It tried to turn the lights off on a whole region. Ukrainian officials say more than 450 drones and about 30 missiles slammed energy and port infrastructure, pushing Odesa and surrounding areas into blackout.

Updated Dec 13, 2025

Demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions and limits on NATO in exchange for ending the war

In early 2025, returning U.S. President Donald Trump launched an aggressive push to "end the war" in Ukraine, tying resumed military aid and intelligence sharing to Kyiv’s acceptance of a U.S.-drafted peace framework that includes territorial concessions to Russia and long-term limits on Ukraine’s sovereignty. The plan, revised through months of talks in Jeddah, Geneva and Florida, would effectively trade parts of the Donbas and other occupied areas for security guarantees and a re‑set in U.S.–Russia relations, and has been welcomed in Moscow but met with mounting alarm in Kyiv and across Europe.

Updated Dec 11, 2025

Primary counterpart in U.S.–Russia negotiations over Ukraine and strategic stability

In early December 2025, the Trump administration published a new U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) that formally abandons the long‑standing framing of Russia as a primary threat and instead emphasizes a doctrine of “flexible realism.” The document calls for reviving the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere, ending the perception of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance, and making it a core U.S. interest to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine while re‑establishing strategic stability with Moscow. Within days, the Kremlin offered rare public praise, saying the strategy “corresponds in many ways” with Russia’s own worldview and welcoming the shift away from treating Russia as a direct adversary.

Updated Dec 11, 2025

Insisting on legal control of all annexed territories and full Donbas as the price of peace

In late 2025, the Trump administration’s drive to broker an end to Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine entered a decisive phase. U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg said a peace deal was “really, really close,” with only two core disputes left: the fate of the Donbas region—especially the remaining Ukrainian‑held parts of Donetsk—and the future of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest. Kellogg estimated over 2 million combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties since Russia’s 2022 invasion, as Moscow now holds roughly 19% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and most of Donbas.

Updated Dec 11, 2025