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Bank of England cuts to 3.75%—one vote, two stories, and a fight over what “neutral” means

Bank of England cuts to 3.75%—one vote, two stories, and a fight over what “neutral” means

Money Moves
By Newzino Staff |

Bailey switches sides to break the deadlock—then markets and mortgage lenders react as the MPC signals the path down is getting narrower.

December 19th, 2025: Virgin Money rolls out updated tracker pricing linked to the new 3.75% base rate

Overview

This cut had courtroom drama energy. The Bank of England dropped rates to 3.75%—but only because Governor Andrew Bailey switched his vote and made it 5–4. The immediate market read was hawkish-by-UK-standards: sterling rose and gilt yields ticked higher as traders pared back expectations for rapid 2026 easing.

Now the fight moves from the committee room to transmission. Lenders began announcing how quickly they’ll pass the cut through to tracker and variable borrowers, while fixed-rate pricing stays hostage to swap rates and the MPC’s internal split over whether “neutral” is closer to ~3% (the doves’ story) or higher (the hawks’ story).

Key Indicators

3.75%
Bank Rate after the Dec. 2025 decision
Down 25 bps from 4.00%, the lowest level in nearly three years.
5–4
MPC vote split
A one-vote cut signals deep disagreement about inflation persistence versus growth risk.
6
Rate cuts since Aug. 2024
The easing cycle has taken Bank Rate from 5.25% to 3.75%.
3.2%
UK CPI inflation (Nov. 2025)
A sharper-than-expected slowdown helped tip the argument toward cutting.
5.1%
UK unemployment rate (three months to Oct. 2025)
A cooling labour market is strengthening the case for further easing—if inflation cooperates.
+0.5% / +5 bps
Post-decision market reaction (sterling / gilt yields)
Sterling rose about 0.5% versus the dollar and gilt yields rose roughly 5 bps as markets scaled back near-term easing expectations after the Bank’s cautious messaging.

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Debate Arena

Two rounds, two personas, one winner. You set the crossfire.

People Involved

Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey
Governor, Bank of England; Chair of the MPC (Casting-vote rate cutter as the committee nears a contested “neutral” level)
Huw Pill
Huw Pill
Chief Economist, Bank of England; MPC member (Voted to hold at 4.00%, warning inflation could get stuck above target)
Clare Lombardelli
Clare Lombardelli
Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy, Bank of England; MPC member (Voted to hold at 4.00%, arguing soft data hasn’t changed the picture much)
Sarah Breeden
Sarah Breeden
Deputy Governor, Bank of England; MPC member (Voted to cut to 3.75%, leaning toward gradual easing as slack builds)
Dave Ramsden
Dave Ramsden
Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking, Bank of England; MPC member (Voted to cut to 3.75%, watching wage surveys for confirmation)
Swati Dhingra
Swati Dhingra
External MPC member, Bank of England (Voted to cut to 3.75%, emphasizing downside growth risks)
Alan Taylor
Alan Taylor
External MPC member, Bank of England (Voted to cut; argues the neutral rate may be lower than others think)
Rachel Reeves
Rachel Reeves
Chancellor of the Exchequer (UK Finance Minister) (Fiscal decisions are now explicitly part of the inflation-and-growth chessboard)

Organizations Involved

Bank of England
Bank of England
Central Bank
Status: Cut Bank Rate to 3.75% but signaled the easing path is narrowing

The UK central bank, trying to land inflation at 2% without breaking a stagnating economy.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
Central Bank Committee
Status: Split committee determining the pace and endpoint of the UK’s easing cycle

A nine-member panel whose internal split is now shaping UK financial conditions as much as the headline rate.

HM Treasury
HM Treasury
Government Finance Ministry
Status: Budget measures are now a visible input into the BoE’s inflation and growth forecasts

The UK finance ministry whose fiscal choices are altering the BoE’s near-term inflation path and medium-term growth risks.

Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
National Statistics Agency
Status: Published inflation and labour-market releases that shaped the December decision

The UK’s official data agency, providing the inflation and jobs numbers the MPC is fighting over.

Timeline

  1. Virgin Money rolls out updated tracker pricing linked to the new 3.75% base rate

    Transmission

    Virgin Money said updated tracker rates reflecting the new Bank Rate would be available from Dec. 19, with tracker margins unchanged.

  2. Bailey breaks the tie: Bank Rate cut to 3.75%

    Decision

    The BoE cuts 25 bps to 3.75% on a 5–4 vote. Officials stress “gradual” cuts, but warn each step down is a closer call as they near neutral.

  3. Markets treat the cut as cautious: sterling and gilt yields rise

    Market

    Sterling strengthened and gilt yields rose as investors interpreted the MPC’s “closer call” guidance as limiting the pace of further cuts.

  4. Mortgage pass-through begins: Nationwide cuts SVR and trackers; Virgin Money/Clydesdale outline repricing dates

    Transmission

    Nationwide said its standard mortgage rate would fall by 25 bps (effective 2026-01-01) and tracker borrowers would see the base-rate-linked reduction; Virgin Money/Clydesdale set variable-rate cuts for mid-January.

  5. Autumn Budget lands in the middle of the rate debate

    Policy

    The government’s budget becomes a direct input into the BoE’s inflation and growth projections for 2026–2028.

  6. Another pause: 5–4 hold at 4.00%

    Decision

    The MPC holds at 4.00% again, but the minority for an immediate cut grows louder.

  7. Pause: Bank Rate held at 4.00%, QT slowed

    Decision

    The MPC holds at 4.00% (7–2) and votes to reduce the pace of gilt sales over the next year.

  8. Fifth cut: Bank Rate to 4.00% after a procedural knife-edge

    Decision

    The MPC cuts to 4.00% via a two-step vote after an initial split including a call for a larger cut.

  9. Fourth cut: Bank Rate to 4.25%

    Decision

    A narrow 5–4 vote cuts rates again as the Bank highlights two-sided risks: persistence vs weak demand.

  10. Third cut: Bank Rate to 4.50%

    Decision

    The MPC cuts to 4.50% (7–2) amid weaker growth, loosening labour conditions, and ongoing disinflation.

  11. Second cut: Bank Rate to 4.75%

    Decision

    The MPC votes 8–1 to cut to 4.75% as disinflation progresses but domestic pressures linger.

  12. The first cut: BoE starts easing

    Decision

    The MPC cuts Bank Rate by 25 bps to 5.00% on a 5–4 vote, beginning the easing cycle.

Scenarios

1

BoE Keeps Cutting—Bank Rate Heads Toward ~3.25% in 2026

Discussed by: Financial Times coverage, Reuters polling and market commentary, and major-bank economist notes cited by UK business press

If services inflation and wage growth keep easing and the labour market continues to loosen, the majority can argue the “disinflation process” is durable. That sets up a steady cadence of cuts through 2026, with the committee aiming to reach a neutral-ish zone without sparking another inflation flare-up. The trigger is boring but decisive: several months where wage expectations soften, services inflation drifts lower, and activity data stays weak enough to justify continued easing.

2

The Hawks Win the Timing Fight—Cuts Pause After One More Move

Discussed by: BoE minutes language about a “closer call,” plus commentary in Reuters and UK press highlighting the hawkish bloc’s persistence concerns

The minority’s case becomes the majority’s if forward-looking wage indicators stay elevated and services inflation stalls—especially if sterling weakness or energy-price moves re-ignite headline inflation. In that world, the Bank delivers perhaps one additional cut, then pauses for multiple meetings to protect credibility. The trigger is a plateau in wage expectations and sticky services prices that makes 2% look achievable only with policy kept restrictive longer.

3

Inflation Re-Bites—BoE Forced to Halt Easing and Talk Tough Again

Discussed by: The hawkish MPC members’ stated concerns about structural inflation persistence and expectations, amplified by market strategists when data re-accelerates

This is the ugly tail risk: demand doesn’t recover much, but inflation stays high anyway—because of structural wage-price dynamics, fiscal/tax effects, or renewed external price shocks. The Bank stops cutting abruptly and signals it’s willing to hold rates higher for longer, even as growth is flat. The trigger is a clear re-acceleration in services inflation and wage growth that pushes medium-term inflation expectations up.

Historical Context

Post-Brexit Vote Shock: BoE cuts to 0.25% and deploys a policy package

2016-07 to 2016-08

What Happened

After the EU referendum, the Bank faced a classic central-bank trap: weaker growth outlook, weaker currency, and inflation pressure from sterling’s fall. It cut rates and paired the move with multiple tools to protect transmission and stabilize confidence.

Outcome

Short Term

Financial conditions eased and the Bank bought time for the economy to adjust.

Long Term

The episode became a template for combining rate policy with targeted support when shocks hit.

Why It's Relevant Today

It’s the closest modern UK example of easing into uncertainty—when inflation risks and growth risks point in opposite directions.

Global Financial Crisis: Bank Rate to 0.5% and QE begins

2008-10 to 2009-03

What Happened

As output collapsed and credit markets seized, the Bank slashed rates rapidly toward the effective floor and launched asset purchases to keep the financial system functioning and support demand.

Outcome

Short Term

Rates hit 0.5% and QE became a core stabilization tool.

Long Term

The crisis redefined the UK’s monetary toolkit—and normalized unconventional policy in emergencies.

Why It's Relevant Today

It shows what a genuine growth emergency looks like—and why today’s MPC is cautious about declaring one prematurely.

Covid Crisis Response: emergency cuts to 0.1% and expanded asset purchases

2020-03

What Happened

Facing a sudden stop in economic activity, the Bank pushed rates close to zero and expanded funding and asset purchases to prevent a credit crunch and limit lasting damage.

Outcome

Short Term

Financial conditions were stabilized quickly despite extreme uncertainty.

Long Term

Policy credibility increasingly hinged on managing the exit—especially once inflation later surged.

Why It's Relevant Today

It explains why the Bank is obsessed with expectations now: the exit from crisis policy helped set the stage for later inflation pain.

18 Sources:
+12
Reuters Financial Times Associated Press Bank of England Bank of England Bank of England The Guardian Mortgage Introducer (MPA UK) Chatham Financial Reuters Bank of England Bank of England Bank of England Bank of England Bank of England Bank of England Bank of England Bank of England