Kevin Hassett

Money Moves

Nominated by Trump to succeed Powell as Fed Chair in May 2026

On January 30, 2026, President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when his term expires in May. Markets reacted violently: gold, which had surged to a record $5,626 per ounce amid the constitutional crisis over Powell's criminal investigation, plunged 11% in hours as investors bet Warsh would preserve central bank independence. Silver crashed 30% in its worst day since 1980. The dollar index spiked to 97.14, recovering from multi-year lows below 96. However, by February 3-5, gold rebounded to $5,070 as investors reassessed the confirmation timeline and Powell investigation trajectory. The rally began January 26 when gold broke $5,000 for the first time, driven by the unprecedented DOJ grand jury subpoenas served January 9 over Powell's congressional testimony about a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation.

Updated Feb 5

Money Moves

Leading candidate alongside Warsh (39% probability)

For the fifth consecutive year, U.S. inflation will finish above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. December's CPI report showed prices rising 2.7% year-over-year—unchanged from November and 0.7 percentage points above the Fed's goal. Core inflation came in at 2.6%, slightly below forecasts. The data confirms what markets already expected: no rate cut at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, where the Fed will also release updated economic projections.

Updated Jan 15

Money Moves

70% favorite in prediction markets to become Fed chair in May 2026

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, in a deeply divided 9–3 vote—the most dissents in six years—bringing the funds rate to 3.5–3.75%. Minutes released December 30 revealed the decision was 'finely balanced,' with officials split over whether weak hiring or stubborn inflation poses the greater risk. The delayed BLS report released December 16 showed the economy lost 105,000 jobs in October and added only 64,000 in November, while unemployment climbed to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. Combined with the November ADP report showing a 32,000 private-sector job loss concentrated in small businesses, the data confirmed the labor market weakened sharply in late 2025.

Updated Jan 2

Force in Play

Downplaying U.S. fuel-price impact; labeling the ships ‘black market’

The U.S. Coast Guard is now chasing a third Venezuela-linked tanker in international waters near Venezuela—under a judicial seizure order. Two other tankers have already been stopped in the past 11 days, including one dramatic helicopter boarding that the administration amplified on social media.

Updated Dec 21, 2025