Kevin Hassett

Gold hits record $4,620 as DOJ investigation threatens Fed independence

Nominated by Trump to succeed Powell as Fed Chair in May 2026

On January 30, 2026, President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell's term expires in May. Gold, which had surged to a record $5,626 per ounce amid the constitutional crisis over Powell's criminal investigation, plunged 11% in hours as investors bet Warsh would preserve central bank independence.

Updated May 20

The Fed's last mile: inflation stuck above target as rate cuts stall

Money Moves

Leading candidate alongside Warsh (39% probability)

For the fifth consecutive year, U.S. inflation will finish above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. December's CPI report showed prices rising 2.7% year-over-year—unchanged from November and 0.7 percentage points above the Fed's goal.

Updated May 20

The tanker hunt: Trump’s Venezuela “blockade” turns into Coast Guard seizures

Force in Play

Downplaying U.S. fuel-price impact; labeling the ships ‘black market’

The U.S. Coast Guard is now chasing a third Venezuela-linked tanker in international waters near Venezuela—under a judicial seizure order. Two other tankers have already been stopped in the past 11 days, including one dramatic helicopter boarding that the administration amplified on social media.

Updated May 15

A weakening U.S. job market forces a Fed pivot under a data blackout

Money Moves

70% favorite in prediction markets to become Fed chair in May 2026

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, in a deeply divided 9–3 vote—the most dissents in six years, bringing the funds rate to 3.5–3.75%. Minutes released December 30 revealed the decision was 'finely balanced,' with officials split over whether weak hiring or inflation poses the greater risk.

Updated May 10