Dot-Com Fiber Optic Overcapacity (1995-2001)
Telecom companies spent over $500 billion laying 80-90 million miles of fiber optic cable, driven by wildly inflated projections that internet traffic doubled every 100 days. The actual growth rate was half that. When the bubble burst in 2000, 95% of installed fiber sat unused—dubbed "dark fiber." Dozens of telecom companies collapsed under debt loads they couldn't service.
Catastrophic overcapacity, telecom bankruptcies, investor losses in the trillions.
The infrastructure eventually got used. Cheap fiber accelerated broadband adoption and enabled the modern internet economy, just not for the companies that built it.
Tech giants are spending comparably on AI power infrastructure based on growth projections that may prove optimistic. History suggests overcapacity risk is real but infrastructure often finds uses beyond original intent.
