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China Files for 200,000 Satellites in Orbital Land Grab

China Files for 200,000 Satellites in Orbital Land Grab

A state-backed institute claims spectrum rights for 20 times more satellites than currently exist in orbit

Overview

There are roughly 10,000 active satellites orbiting Earth. In late December 2025, China filed paperwork to launch 200,000 more. The filings, submitted to the International Telecommunication Union by a newly formed state-backed institute, would secure spectrum and orbital priority for the largest satellite constellation ever proposed—more than five times the size of SpaceX's full Starlink ambitions.

The move is less about imminent deployment than about claiming a place in line. Under ITU rules, spectrum rights follow a first-come-first-served principle, and earlier filers can force later entrants to coordinate around them. With LEO orbits filling fast and collision warnings now averaging one every two minutes for Starlink alone, the race to reserve orbital real estate has become a strategic priority. China's filing buys time—seven years to launch one satellite, fourteen to complete deployment—while signaling that Beijing won't cede the orbital commons to American companies.

Key Indicators

200,000+
Satellites filed
Total satellites in China's December 2025 ITU filings, dominated by two 96,714-satellite constellations
~10,000
Active satellites today
Current number of operational satellites in orbit globally, 65% of which are Starlink
14 years
Deployment window
Time China has under ITU rules to deploy or forfeit spectrum rights
500+/week
Required launch rate
Satellites per week China would need to deploy to meet the 14-year deadline

People Involved

Elon Musk
Elon Musk
CEO, SpaceX (Operating dominant LEO constellation with 9,400+ satellites)

Organizations Involved

IN
Institute of Radio Spectrum Utilization and Technological Innovation
State-Backed Research Institute
Status: Filed CTC-1 and CTC-2 constellations totaling 193,428 satellites

A newly formed Chinese institute that filed the largest satellite constellation applications in history one day before its official registration.

CH
China Satellite Network Group (China SatNet)
State-Owned Enterprise
Status: Operating Guowang constellation with 127 LEO satellites deployed

China's primary state-owned satellite internet operator, managing the Guowang constellation as the country's official answer to Starlink.

SH
Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST)
Commercial Satellite Operator
Status: Deploying Qianfan constellation, targeting 648 satellites by end of 2025

A Shanghai-backed company operating the Qianfan (G60) constellation, China's commercially-oriented alternative to Starlink.

IN
International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
UN Specialized Agency
Status: Processing China's applications under 14-year deployment rules

The UN agency that allocates global radio spectrum and satellite orbital positions, operating on a first-come-first-served coordination system.

SpaceX
SpaceX
Private Space Company
Status: Operating 9,400+ Starlink satellites, 65% of all active satellites

The American company whose Starlink constellation dominates LEO, serving 9 million subscribers and performing 144,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in six months.

Timeline

  1. FCC Approves 7,500 More Starlink Satellites

    Regulatory

    SpaceX receives authorization for additional Gen2 satellites, bringing total approved to 15,000, days after China's massive filing.

  2. Radio Innovation Institute Officially Registered

    Corporate

    The entity behind the massive filings is formally established in Xiong'an, one day after submitting applications, backed by seven state organizations.

  3. China Files 200,000-Satellite Megaconstellation with ITU

    Filing

    Radio Innovation Institute submits CTC-1 and CTC-2 applications for 193,428 satellites across 7,320 orbital planes, plus additional filings from China Mobile and others.

  4. China Completes 90th Launch of 2025

    Launch

    Record-breaking launch year includes 17th Guowang mission, far surpassing 2024's 68 launches.

  5. Guowang Surpasses Qianfan as China's Largest Constellation

    Milestone

    With 113 satellites deployed, state-owned Guowang overtakes Shanghai-backed Qianfan for second time.

  6. Space Debris Forces China's First Emergency Crew Mission

    Incident

    Shenzhou-20 astronauts discover debris damage to viewport, triggering first emergency launch in China's human spaceflight program.

  7. ZhuQue-2E Failure Destroys Four Guowang Prototypes

    Incident

    Electrical arc discharge causes rocket anomaly, resulting in loss of four prototype Guowang satellites.

  8. Long March 8A Debuts for Guowang Deployment

    Launch

    New rocket variant begins regular Guowang launches, carrying 9 satellites per mission.

  9. China Launches First Qianfan Satellites

    Launch

    Shanghai Spacecom deploys first batch of Qianfan (G60) constellation, creating a second Chinese megaconstellation alongside state-owned Guowang.

  10. China's Space Station Maneuvers to Avoid Starlink

    Incident

    Tiangong performs first of two collision avoidance maneuvers in 2021 due to Starlink satellites, prompting China to file complaint with UN.

  11. China Establishes State Satellite Internet Company

    Corporate

    State Council creates China Satellite Network Group (China SatNet), headquartered in Xiong'an New Area, to build China's answer to Starlink.

  12. China Files Initial Guowang Constellation with ITU

    Filing

    China Satellite Network Group files for approximately 13,000 satellites in two sub-constellations (GW-A59 and GW-2), marking China's official entry into the LEO megaconstellation race.

  13. ITU Adopts Megaconstellation Deployment Rules

    Regulatory

    WRC-19 establishes milestone-based requirements: 10% deployment in 2 years, 50% in 5 years, 100% in 7 years after initial deadline, to prevent spectrum warehousing.

Scenarios

1

Strategic Placeholder: Filings Secure Options, Deployment Scaled Back

Discussed by: SpaceNews, industry analysts, ITU experts

China uses the filings to establish spectrum priority but deploys far fewer satellites. The 200,000 figure serves as a negotiating position and defensive claim, preventing Western operators from crowding out Chinese options. Actual deployment could follow existing Guowang and Qianfan plans (15,000-30,000 satellites combined) while the CTC filings provide flexibility for future expansion. This matches the pattern of previous ITU filings that claimed more capacity than operators intended to use.

2

Accelerated Deployment: China Races to Fill Orbits

Discussed by: Chinese state media, Everbright Securities, commercial space analysts

Beijing treats the filing as a genuine deployment target, accelerating launch infrastructure and satellite manufacturing. New commercial launch sites at Wenchang (doubling capacity in 2026), reusable rockets from Landspace and others, and expanded state investment could enable deployment rates approaching Starlink's. This would require sustained political commitment and funding exceeding current commercial space budgets, but aligns with 'satellite internet' designation as national strategic infrastructure.

3

Regulatory Standoff: ITU Framework Tested by Competing Claims

Discussed by: Space law experts, UN COPUOS observers, telecommunications regulators

China's massive filings prompt challenges from other operators and trigger debate over ITU first-come-first-served principles. Western nations could argue the filings constitute spectrum warehousing despite technical compliance. The 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference could revise milestone requirements or coordination procedures. Outcomes range from tightened rules affecting all operators to fragmentation of the international spectrum allocation system.

4

Orbital Congestion Crisis: Collision Risks Force Coordination

Discussed by: ESA, LeoLabs, University of Southampton researchers, Kessler syndrome analysts

With Starlink already performing 144,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in six months and debris researchers warning LEO is already unstable between 520-1,000 km altitude, any large-scale deployment intensifies collision risks. A significant collision or cascade event could force international coordination requirements beyond current ITU frameworks, potentially including mandatory debris mitigation, capacity limits, or shared space traffic management. This scenario becomes more likely regardless of who deploys, but China's filing heightens urgency.

Historical Context

OneWeb Bankruptcy and Revival (2020)

March-November 2020

What Happened

OneWeb, backed by SoftBank, filed for bankruptcy in March 2020 with 74 satellites deployed and $3.4 billion spent. The company had spectrum filings for 648 satellites but couldn't sustain launch costs. A UK government-led consortium acquired it for $1 billion in November, and the company eventually merged with Eutelsat in 2023.

Outcome

Short Term

OneWeb's spectrum rights were preserved through the acquisition, allowing deployment to continue under new ownership.

Long Term

Demonstrated that ITU filings alone don't guarantee deployment—financial viability and launch capacity matter more than regulatory priority.

Why It's Relevant Today

China's 200,000-satellite filing faces the same fundamental constraint: filings create options, but actual deployment requires sustained funding and launch infrastructure that may not materialize at the scale claimed.

ITU WRC-19 Milestone Rules (2019)

November 2019

What Happened

At the World Radiocommunication Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, 193 countries adopted milestone-based deployment requirements for megaconstellations. Previously, operators could reserve spectrum indefinitely by launching a single satellite within seven years. The new rules require 10% deployment in 2 years, 50% in 5 years, and 100% in 7 years after initial deadline—or lose rights proportionally.

Outcome

Short Term

Operators faced pressure to accelerate deployment schedules or risk forfeiting spectrum claims.

Long Term

Created the 14-year framework China is now using—long enough for strategic positioning, short enough to prevent indefinite warehousing.

Why It's Relevant Today

China's filing is designed around these rules. The 14-year window provides time to develop launch capacity while the filing itself establishes priority. The rules both enable and constrain China's strategy.

Starlink-Tiangong Near Misses (2021)

July-October 2021

What Happened

China's Tiangong space station performed emergency maneuvers twice in 2021 to avoid Starlink satellites. Beijing filed a diplomatic note with the UN, calling SpaceX's satellite behavior unpredictable and dangerous. Chinese social media erupted with criticism of Musk, and state media framed Starlink as both a commercial and military threat.

Outcome

Short Term

Heightened US-China tensions over space traffic management and legitimized Chinese concerns about American LEO dominance.

Long Term

Provided political rationale for China's accelerated megaconstellation development as a matter of 'space sovereignty.'

Why It's Relevant Today

The incidents transformed satellite internet from a commercial competition into a strategic rivalry. China's 200,000-satellite filing reflects a national determination not to be operationally dependent on or crowded out by American constellations.

12 Sources:
+6
SpaceNews China in Space CGTN South China Morning Post China Daily IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog Via Satellite ITU Space.com IEEE Spectrum SpaceNews SpaceNews