El Niño food inflation in Colombia (2015-2016)
A strong El Niño disrupted food supplies across Colombia, pushing annual inflation toward 9% by 2016, far above the central bank's target at the time.
BanRep tightened policy as food prices surged, and inflation receded once the weather shock faded.
The episode became the standard case of weather-driven inflation: painful in the moment but reversible if expectations stay anchored.
Today's board explicitly worries El Niño will do the same, lifting food and regulated prices, and whether those rises stay temporary or feed into expectations.
