Fossil fuel emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran war cuts oil demand

Overview

Updated 1 hour ago

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, the Global Carbon Project said on November 10. The group released the estimate at United Nations climate talks in Antalya, Turkey.

Most of the decline comes from oil: the war in Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for petroleum shipping, and fuel prices rose 10% to 50%. Oil emissions are set to fall 1.9%, one of the largest drops on record outside 2020. Even so, total CO2 including land-use change is projected to hit a record 43.3 billion tonnes.

Why it matters

Emissions would have kept rising in 2026 without the Iran war's price shock, even as solar, wind and electric cars set records.

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Key Indicators

38.2 GtCO2

Projected fossil CO2 emissions, 2026

Down from an estimated 38.4 billion tonnes in 2025.

-0.4%

Change in fossil emissions vs 2025

The report's uncertainty range runs from a 1.5% fall to a 0.6% rise.

43.3 GtCO2

Total CO2 including land-use change, 2026

A record, up from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025, as southeast Asian peat fires rise.

-1.9%

Fall in oil emissions, 2026

About 243 million tonnes of CO2, the main driver of the global decline.

69%

Demand-driven emissions growth offset by clean tech

Solar, wind and EVs offset 0.54 of 0.78 billion tonnes of growth in 2026.

3.5 years

Remaining carbon budget for 1.5C

At current emission rates, the budget for limiting warming to 1.5C runs out in about three and a half years.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

People Involved

Pierre Friedlingstein

Chair of mathematical modelling of climate systems, University of Exeter; Global Carbon Project team member

Presented the 2026 Global Carbon Budget

Zeke Hausfather

Climate scientist and Carbon Brief climate science contributor

Co-wrote Carbon Brief's analysis of the 2026 budget

Organizations Involved

Global Carbon Project

International Research Consortium

Published the 2026 Global Carbon Budget

An international research consortium that publishes the annual Global Carbon Budget, the standard tally of human CO2 emissions.

University of Exeter

Research university

Home institution of lead author Pierre Friedlingstein; published the announcement

A British university whose climate modelling group is central to the annual Global Carbon Budget.

Carbon Brief

Climate Science Publication

Published detailed analysis of the 2026 budget

A UK-based climate science and policy publication that ran a detailed breakdown of the 2026 carbon budget.

Timeline

2010 November 2026

6 events Latest: Today

Tap a bar to jump to that date

November 2026
Global Carbon Budget projects a 0.4% dip
Today Report

Fossil emissions projected at 38.2 billion tonnes, with oil down 1.9%.
Today
Study quantifies clean energy's offset
Research

Nature Climate Change paper finds clean tech offsets about 69% of demand-driven emissions growth.
Yesterday
2026
Iran conflict shuts the Strait of Hormuz
Energy shock

Fuel prices rise 10% to 50% in the US, China and EU as oil supply is disrupted.
2026
2025
Clean tech offsets 69% of demand growth
Data

Fossil emissions grew 0.8% a year over 2019-25, half the rate without clean tech.
2025
Baseline year: 42.8 billion tonnes
Data

Total CO2 reached 42.8 billion tonnes; solar and wind avoided 4.1 billion.
2025
2010
Clean energy's avoided emissions start small
Data

Solar and wind avoided 0.28 billion tonnes of CO2 that year, per the 2026 study.
2010

Scenarios

Emissions rebound in 2027 as the oil shock fades

Likely Resolves by Dec 15, 2027

Discussed by: Global Carbon Project authors, who describe the 2026 dip as a response to high prices

If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and fuel prices fall back toward 2025 levels, the demand destruction behind the 1.9% oil decline unwinds. The authors' own framing implies the 2026 drop reverses unless clean energy keeps accelerating faster than demand. Their current-deployment projections already show total emissions higher in 2028 than in 2025.

A second straight decline confirms a peak

Possible Resolves by Dec 15, 2027

Discussed by: The report's authors, who say a sustained peak could be a few years away if clean deployment accelerates

A peak needs clean energy to outrun demand growth without help from a price shock. The Nature Climate Change study estimates solar, wind and EVs could offset 79% of demand growth by 2028 under an accelerated scenario, but still not enough to push emissions below 2025 levels. A second annual fall in 2027 would show the transition, not the war, is doing the work.

Clean energy alone holds emissions flat through 2028

Unlikely Resolves by Dec 15, 2028

Discussed by: Global Carbon Project researchers, whose deployment scenarios show otherwise

The study's two 2028 scenarios assume no repeat of the 2026 price shock. Under current deployment trends, clean tech offsets 63% of a projected 2.6 billion tonnes of demand growth; under acceleration, 79%. In both, emissions end higher in 2028 than in 2025, so a flat or falling outcome would require deployment well beyond recent trends.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 1973 - March 1974

OPEC oil embargo (1973-74)

Arab members of OPEC cut oil exports to countries that backed Israel in the Yom Kippur War, and crude prices roughly quadrupled within months. Industrial economies slid into recession, and oil demand fell across the West as drivers and factories cut back.

Then

Oil consumption dropped and economic output contracted across industrial economies.

Now

The shock spurred fuel-efficiency standards and new non-OPEC production; oil demand resumed growing within a few years.

Why this matters now

The 2026 dip has the same shape: a supply shock cuts oil use faster than policy can, then fades as prices normalize.

July 2008 - December 2009

Global financial crisis (2008-09)

Oil hit $147 a barrel in July 2008, then collapsed as credit markets froze and factories cut output. Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels fell in 2009, one of only a handful of annual declines the Global Carbon Project has recorded.

Then

Emissions rebounded in 2010 as stimulus spending restarted industry.

Now

The episode became the standard test case for how recessions, not policy, produce fast emissions drops.

Why this matters now

The 2026 decline is expected to follow the same path unless clean energy can sustain it without a price shock.

March - December 2020

Covid-19 lockdowns (2020)

Governments shut down travel and industry in March 2020. Fossil CO2 emissions fell by the largest amount on record as flights stopped and commuting collapsed, a drop the Global Carbon Project cites as the only larger oil-driven fall than 2026's.

Then

Emissions rebounded in 2021 toward 2019 levels as economies reopened.

Now

The episode showed how quickly emissions snap back when mobility returns.

Why this matters now

It is the benchmark the 2026 report uses to rank the size of the current oil-driven decline.