Middle East conflict cuts global refinery runs, then a partial rebound

Overview

Updated Yesterday

Refineries worldwide ran 4.8 million barrels a day less crude in the second quarter of 2026 than in the first, a 6% drop, after fighting in the Middle East closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February. By the third quarter, throughput had climbed back 1.8 million barrels a day.

The gap between crude and fuel prices shows where the damage landed. Brent traded near $90 a barrel in August, 25% above pre-war levels, while European diesel was up more than 70% and U.S. gasoline about 60%. Oil wells were not the bottleneck. Refineries were.

Why it matters

Refinery output, not crude prices, sets what drivers pay. A 6% drop in runs kept diesel and gasoline expensive even as oil fell.

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Key Indicators

4.8 million b/d

Second-quarter drop in global refinery crude inputs

The decline from the first quarter of 2026, equal to 6% of global throughput.

Quarterly fall in refinery runs, 2Q 2026

Global crude runs normally rise in the second quarter as refiners finish maintenance.

1.8 million b/d

Third-quarter rebound in refinery inputs

Recovery came as more Middle Eastern crude reached the market through alternate routes.

Third-quarter runs below the same period of 2025

Throughput recovered but stayed well under normal levels.

82 million b/d

IEA forecast for global refinery runs in 2026

Down 2 million barrels a day from 2025, per the agency's June 2026 Oil Market Report.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

People Involved

Sean Hill

Analyst, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Principal contributor to the November 3, 2026 refinery brief

Organizations Involved

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Federal statistics agency

Published the November 3 accounting of global refinery runs

The statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, which publishes weekly and monthly energy data.

International Energy Agency

Intergovernmental energy agency

Forecasts a 2 million b/d contraction in 2026 refinery runs

Paris-based energy body that coordinates oil stock releases among member countries and publishes monthly oil market reports.

Kpler

Commodity data firm

Source of the tanker and refinery tracking data behind the EIA brief

Tracks ship movements and refinery activity, producing estimates that governments and traders use.

Timeline

February 2026 November 2026

6 events Latest: Yesterday

Tap a bar to jump to that date

November 2026
EIA puts the second-quarter refining loss at 4.8 million barrels a day
Latest Data release

Global crude runs fell 6% in the second quarter, then recovered 1.8 million barrels a day in the third, leaving them about 5% below 2025.
Yesterday
September 2026
Diesel sets a record nominal price
Market

Strikes on Russian refineries and lower Asian runs tighten distillate supply further, pushing diesel to its highest nominal level on record.
September 2026
August 2026
Diesel up more than 70%, U.S. gasoline up 60% since the war began
Market

Brent retreats to about $90 from a wartime peak of $118, but refined product prices stay high because refining capacity is the constraint.
August 20th, 2026
June 2026
Interim U.S.-Iran agreement lifts flows toward 12 million barrels a day
Diplomacy

An interim deal raises the prospect of reopening the strait; mines in the shipping lanes and broken supply chains slow the recovery.
June 2026
May 2026
Hormuz flows bottom out at 9.6 million barrels a day
Supply disruption

Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman keep some crude moving while the strait stays closed.
May 2026
February 2026
Conflict begins in the Middle East
Conflict

Fighting starts and the Strait of Hormuz closes to most commercial shipping, cutting off a fifth of global crude supply.
February 28th, 2026

Scenarios

Global refinery runs climb back through 2027

Likely Resolves by Nov 30, 2027

Discussed by: International Energy Agency, June 2026 Oil Market Report

The IEA expects crude runs to rebound 3.1 million barrels a day in 2027 as crude supply normalizes. That requires the interim U.S.-Iran agreement to hold and Hormuz shipping to return to normal, with mines cleared from the main lanes. Refiners in China and the Middle East would have to restart units idled since the spring.

Diesel holds near record highs through the winter

Possible Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Reuters oil commentary, EIA price data

Distillate supply stays tight because Russian refineries keep absorbing drone strikes and Asian runs have not recovered. Cold-weather demand would draw down inventories that are already low. The EIA recorded the highest nominal diesel price on record in September 2026, and nothing in the third-quarter data shows a fast rebuild of refining capacity.

Gulf refiners restart and recover the lost 1.9 million barrels a day

Uncertain Resolves by Q2 2027

Discussed by: EIA Today in Energy, IEA Oil Market Report

Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran together cut 1.9 million barrels a day of crude input in the second quarter, then added back only 0.4 million in the third. A full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, plus restored export terminals for refined products, would let those plants run again. Without it, the region keeps importing its own crude's value elsewhere.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

October 1973 - March 1974

Arab oil embargo (1973-74)

Arab producers cut exports by roughly 5 million barrels a day and embargoed shipments to the United States and the Netherlands. Crude prices roughly quadrupled. Gasoline lines formed in the U.S. even though the shortfall was in crude, not in refining capacity.

Then

Fuel rationing, price controls, and a deep recession across industrialized economies.

Now

Governments built strategic petroleum reserves and wrote fuel-economy standards, treating supply security as a state function.

Why this matters now

The 1973 shock is the reference case for how a crude cutoff becomes a consumer price shock. In 2026 the crunch ran through refineries instead, which makes it harder to fix by releasing stored crude.

September 2019

Abqaiq and Khurais drone attack (2019)

Drone and cruise missile strikes knocked out about 5.7 million barrels a day of Saudi crude processing, roughly half the kingdom's output. Brent jumped 15% in a day, its largest one-day gain on record.

Then

Saudi Aramco restored most output within weeks using stored crude and spare processing capacity. Prices fell back within two weeks.

Now

The episode became the benchmark for how quickly a supply shock can be absorbed when refining capacity elsewhere is intact.

Why this matters now

In 2026 the shock hit refining capacity itself, across several countries at once, so there was no spare plant to absorb it.

2022

Russia's diesel squeeze after the Ukraine invasion (2022)

Sanctions, export restrictions and refinery outages pushed global distillate markets tight. Diesel and heating oil prices rose far more than crude, and distillate inventories in the U.S. and Europe fell to multi-decade lows.

Then

Diesel cracks hit record levels and freight and farming costs rose sharply.

Now

Refining margins stayed unusually high for two years, and the diesel market became the place where supply disruptions show up first.

Why this matters now

Diesel was already the tight link in the system before 2026. The loss of Russian refining to drone strikes hit the same market a second time.