How repeatable ignition sparked a global race between national labs, China's tokamaks, and billion-dollar startups racing to commercialize fusion power
How repeatable ignition sparked a global race between national labs, China's tokamaks, and billion-dollar startups racing to commercialize fusion power
Los Alamos physicists achieved fusion ignition using a target that shouldn't have worked. On June 22, 2025, their THOR design—deliberately adding windows that leak crucial energy—generated 2.4 megajoules of fusion power at the National Ignition Facility. The shot created burning plasma, a self-sustaining reaction where fusion itself drives more fusion. It was ignition with a scientific instrument built in.
Los Alamos physicists achieved fusion ignition using a target that shouldn't have worked. On June 22, 2025, their THOR design—deliberately adding windows that leak crucial energy—generated 2.4 megajoules of fusion power at the National Ignition Facility. The shot created burning plasma, a self-sustaining reaction where fusion itself drives more fusion. It was ignition with a scientific instrument built in.
The fusion landscape transformed dramatically in early 2026. China's EAST tokamak broke the Greenwald density limit on January 1, shattering a 70-year barrier that constrained plasma density in magnetic confinement reactors. Commonwealth Fusion Systems installed the first magnet for its SPARC demonstration reactor and landed a partnership with Nvidia to create digital twins of fusion systems. Private fusion companies have now raised over $7 billion, with TAE Technologies merging with Trump Media in a $6 billion deal and General Fusion announcing plans to become the first publicly traded pure-play fusion company. The question is no longer whether fusion works—it's who will commercialize it first.
Status: Merged with Trump Media in $6B deal, planning 50 MWe utility-scale plant construction in 2026
California-based fusion company developing aneutronic fusion approach, raised $1.5B in funding.
GE
General Fusion
Private Fusion Energy Company
Status: Announced plans to become first publicly traded pure-play fusion company in January 2026
Canadian fusion company developing magnetized target fusion approach, raised $392M in funding.
Timeline
General Fusion to Become First Public Fusion Company
Business
General Fusion announces merger with Spring Valley Acquisition Corp. III to become world's first publicly traded pure-play fusion company.
China Hosts Fusion Energy Technology Conference
Policy
Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference 2026 held in Hefei to build collaborative innovation ecosystem for nuclear fusion energy.
Commonwealth Fusion Systems Installs First SPARC Magnet
Progress
CFS installs first of 18 magnets for SPARC demonstration reactor, announces partnership with Nvidia for digital twin development. Expects all magnets installed by summer 2026.
China's EAST Breaks Greenwald Density Limit
Breakthrough
EAST tokamak achieves plasma densities 65% beyond Greenwald limit, overcoming 70-year barrier. At 150-million-degree temperatures, breakthrough could quadruple energy output.
NIF Enables First Stellar Nuclear Reaction Measurements
Research
LLNL radiochemistry team makes first experimental measurements of nuclear reactions in high-energy-density plasma environments similar to conditions in stars and thermonuclear explosions.
TAE Technologies Announces $6B Trump Media Merger
Business
Trump Media & Technology Group agrees to merge with TAE Technologies in all-stock deal valuing combined company at over $6 billion. TAE plans to begin building 50 MWe utility-scale plant in 2026.
DOE Releases Fusion Roadmap
Policy
Department of Energy announces strategy targeting commercial fusion power by mid-2030s.
Commonwealth Fusion Secures $1B+ Power Deal
Business
Italian energy giant Eni signs landmark $1 billion+ Power Purchase Agreement to buy power from CFS's future ARC commercial plant.
DOE Awards $134M for Fusion Research
Funding
Energy Department announces $134 million for FIRE collaboratives and INFUSE program to accelerate private-sector fusion development.
Los Alamos Achieves Windowed Ignition
Breakthrough
LANL's THOR design with diagnostic windows achieves 2.4 MJ ignition, proving robustness.
NIF achieves ignition for seventh time with 2.05 MJ shot yielding 5.0 MJ, setting target gain record of 2.44.
China's EAST Sets Plasma Duration Record
Record
EAST sustains plasma for 1066 seconds (nearly 18 minutes), breaking previous record and demonstrating sustained tokamak operation.
Yield Doubles Input Energy
Progress
Experiment produces 5.2 MJ from 2.2 MJ laser energy, more than doubling input.
Second Ignition Exceeds First
Progress
NIF achieves 3.88 MJ from 2.05 MJ input, confirming ignition is repeatable.
Public Announcement of Ignition
Announcement
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm announces historic achievement to the world.
First Fusion Ignition in Laboratory History
Breakthrough
NIF produces 3.15 MJ from 2.05 MJ laser input, achieving scientific breakeven for first time.
Major Breakthrough Shot
Progress
NIF achieves 1.3 MJ yield, 70% of laser input energy, 25 times previous record.
Ignition Campaign Falls Short
Setback
Initial campaign ends at 1/10 of conditions needed for ignition after two years of attempts.
NIF Becomes Operational
Facility
National Ignition Facility fires all 192 laser beams for first time, delivering 1.098 megajoules.
Scenarios
1
Commercial Fusion Plants Operating by 2035
Discussed by: Department of Energy roadmap, Commonwealth Fusion Systems, 35 of 45 private fusion companies
The early 2030s become the transformation decade. Private companies like Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Helion Energy translate NIF's ignition physics into commercial reactor designs using different approaches—magnetic confinement tokamaks and pulsed non-ignition systems. Government and private investment exceeds $15 billion annually by 2030. First pilot plants demonstrate net electricity production by 2032. Commonwealth's Arc reactor in Virginia begins delivering 400 MW to the grid by 2034, with Microsoft and Google as anchor customers. By 2035, multiple facilities operate commercially, though fusion remains a small fraction of the energy mix.
2
China Dominates Fusion as U.S. Funding Stalls
Discussed by: Department of Energy assessments, Clean Air Task Force analysis of comparative investment
Chinese government funding continues at $3 billion annually while U.S. investment remains under $200 million. By 2030, China operates multiple tokamak facilities achieving higher performance than NIF. Chinese firms commercialize fusion power domestically by 2035 while U.S. companies struggle with insufficient capital. America retains scientific leadership through NIF but loses the commercial race. The fusion industry mirrors solar panel manufacturing—pioneered in the U.S., scaled and commercialized in China. By 2040, China exports fusion reactor technology globally while U.S. utilities buy Chinese designs.
NIF continues achieving higher yields in laboratory conditions but the path to commercial power remains blocked by fundamental engineering barriers. Laser inefficiency means NIF uses 300 MJ of electricity to produce 2 MJ of laser light yielding 8.6 MJ of fusion energy—still net negative overall. No one solves the repetition rate problem; NIF fires once per day while commercial plants need shots every second. Materials can't withstand sustained neutron bombardment. Tritium breeding proves impractical. By 2040, fusion remains a stockpile stewardship tool and physics research platform. Private companies quietly wind down after burning through investment.
4
Breakthrough Materials Enable Fusion Scaling
Discussed by: Materials science researchers, DOE Fusion Energy Sciences strategic planning
THOR windowed experiments accelerate materials discovery by providing sustained access to fusion-relevant radiation environments. By 2028, researchers identify new alloys and composites that survive neutron bombardment without degrading. These materials solve the first wall problem plaguing all fusion approaches. Simultaneously, AI-designed laser systems achieve 10x better efficiency. Companies retrofit NIF-style inertial confinement designs with new materials and efficient lasers. By 2033, the first net-positive fusion facility operates continuously. The materials breakthrough triggers an investment wave exceeding $50 billion. Fusion scales faster than predicted.
5
China Achieves Commercial Fusion Before U.S. Private Sector
Discussed by: Implicit in EAST breakthrough announcements and China's stated 2030 demonstration target
China's January 2026 breakthrough overcoming the Greenwald density limit accelerates their tokamak program dramatically. By solving the density barrier that plagued magnetic confinement for 70 years, China's state-funded program achieves demonstration fusion power generation by 2030, five years ahead of Western private companies. EAST's 1066-second plasma duration record and density breakthrough provide the foundation for a scaled commercial reactor. Meanwhile, U.S. private companies face funding constraints and technical challenges translating NIF's inertial confinement success to commercial-scale magnetic confinement or achieving repetition rates needed for continuous power. By 2032, China operates pilot fusion plants while Commonwealth and TAE are still testing demonstration reactors.
Historical Context
JET Tokamak Sets Fusion Record (1997-2024)
1997-2024
What Happened
The Joint European Torus in the UK achieved 16 MW of fusion power in 1997, a record that stood for 25 years. JET used magnetic confinement in a doughnut-shaped tokamak, sustaining fusion reactions for seconds rather than NIF's nanosecond pulses. In its final experiments before decommissioning in 2024, JET produced 69.26 megajoules over six seconds from 0.21 milligrams of fuel.
Outcome
Short Term
Demonstrated sustained fusion reactions were possible, validating tokamak approach for ITER.
Long Term
Proved magnetic confinement could achieve significant fusion yields, though still below breakeven.
Why It's Relevant Today
JET's sustained burns contrast with NIF's instantaneous ignition, showing fusion has multiple viable paths with different trade-offs.
Manhattan Project and National Labs (1943-1945)
1943-1952
What Happened
The U.S. established Los Alamos in 1943 to develop atomic weapons, achieving the first nuclear detonation in July 1945. After World War II ended, weapons laboratories pivoted to peacetime missions. Lawrence Livermore was founded in 1952 as a second nuclear design lab. Both facilities transitioned from building bombs to maintaining the arsenal without testing.
Outcome
Short Term
Created institutional infrastructure for nuclear weapons development that won World War II.
Long Term
National labs became centers for extreme physics research, eventually hosting fusion experiments like NIF.
Why It's Relevant Today
Today's fusion breakthroughs happen at labs built for weapons, using facilities designed to study nuclear detonations without testing.
U.S. Solar Industry Rise and Fall (1970s-2000s)
1973-2012
What Happened
America led solar photovoltaic development through the 1970s oil shocks, with government funding and Bell Labs innovations. By the 1990s, U.S. companies dominated manufacturing. Then China entered with massive subsidies, scaling production beyond U.S. capacity. By 2012, Chinese firms produced solar panels at costs American manufacturers couldn't match, driving most U.S. companies bankrupt.
Outcome
Short Term
U.S. lost manufacturing dominance but retained technology leadership through research.
Long Term
China controls 80% of global solar manufacturing; U.S. became dependent on Chinese imports for renewable energy.
Why It's Relevant Today
Fusion risks the same trajectory—U.S. achieves scientific breakthrough but loses commercial race to countries that invest in scaling.
