Global fire emissions near record low in 2020 despite historic megafires

Overview

Updated Aug 5

In 2020 the world watched Australia, California, and Siberia burn on repeat. Yet the total carbon released by fire worldwide stayed near the lowest level in the satellite record.

The reason sits far from the headlines. Across Africa's savannas, farmers are swapping seasonal burning for plows and machines, shrinking global burned land even as forest megafires grow louder.

Why it matters

Most people think fire is spreading everywhere. Globally, burned land is shrinking as farming replaces seasonal burning across Africa's grasslands.

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Key Indicators

25%

Drop in global burned area

NASA satellite data show the area burned worldwide fell about a quarter from 2003 to 2019.

700,000 km²

African savanna fire decline

By 2015 the yearly burned area lost in African savannas was roughly the size of Texas.

244 Mt

Arctic CO₂ from fire, 2020

Arctic fires released a record 244 megatonnes of carbon dioxide, beating 2019's 181 megatonnes.

Since 2003

Length of the emissions record

The Copernicus fire-emissions dataset runs back to 2003, giving a consistent global baseline.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

People Involved

Mark Parrington

Senior scientist, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

Lead voice interpreting CAMS global fire-emissions data

Niels Andela

Fire scientist and lead author

Established the human-driven fire-decline finding

Organizations Involved

Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

European Union monitoring service

Produces the global fire-emissions dataset behind the record

CAMS estimates daily wildfire emissions worldwide from satellite readings of fire heat.

NASA (Earth-observing fire program)

Research and monitoring program

Supplied the satellite record showing the long decline

NASA's satellites built the long-term global record of where and how much the planet burns.

Timeline

June 2017 December 2020

5 events Latest: December 31st, 2020 · 6 years ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

December 2020
Global biomass-burning emissions land near a record low
Latest Data

Despite regional megafires, CAMS finds worldwide fire carbon emissions among the lowest since 2003.
December 31st, 2020
August 2020
Record fires strike California and the Arctic
Wildfire

The US West and Siberia burn at record intensity; Arctic fires release 244 megatonnes of CO₂.
August 15th, 2020
September 2019
Australia's Black Summer fires begin
Wildfire

Record bushfires burn tens of millions of acres across eastern Australia into early 2020.
September 1st, 2019
August 2019
NASA: global burned area down 25% since 2003
Data

Satellite data confirm a long decline, led by African savanna conversion to cropland.
August 29th, 2019
June 2017
Study finds a human-driven decline in global fire
Research

A Science paper documents global burned area falling about 24% as savannas become farmland.
June 30th, 2017

Scenarios

Global fire emissions keep sliding as savanna farming spreads

Likely Resolves by Mar 1, 2027

Discussed by: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service scientists; NASA Earth Observatory

The land-use trend that drives the numbers does not reverse quickly. As more African and Asian grassland shifts to permanent farming, seasonal burning keeps fading. A future full-year CAMS review lands at or below the long-run average, extending the pattern seen in 2020.

Forest megafires overtake the savanna decline in a single year

Possible Resolves by Jan 31, 2028

Discussed by: Fire researchers tracking boreal and tropical-forest emissions

Extreme forest and boreal fire seasons, like Canada's, grow large enough to swamp the savanna drop. In one calendar year, rising forest emissions push the global total above its long-run baseline, breaking the below-average streak.

Canada or Russia posts a new national fire-emissions record

Possible Resolves by End of 2027

Discussed by: CAMS analysts monitoring high-latitude fire seasons

Boreal forests keep producing outsized fire years. Either Canada or Russia sets a single-year record for wildfire carbon emissions, widening the visible gap between shrinking savanna fire and intensifying forest fire.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

August 2019

Amazon fire alarm (2019)

Fires in the Brazilian Amazon drew global outrage, with headlines calling the rainforest the planet's lungs. World leaders and celebrities warned of a burning Earth. Yet that year's global fire emissions were not unusual by satellite records.

Then

Brazil faced diplomatic pressure and pledged deployments to fight the fires.

Now

The episode showed how vivid regional images can outrun the global data on where and how much the planet burns.

Why this matters now

Like 2020, striking regional fires shaped public opinion while the worldwide total told a calmer story.

June 2017

Human-driven decline in global burned area (2017)

Niels Andela and colleagues published a study in Science measuring a roughly 24% drop in global burned area from 1998 to 2015. They tied it to people converting savannas and grasslands into farmland across Africa, South America, and Asia.

Then

The finding challenged the assumption that fire was simply rising everywhere.

Now

It set the scientific baseline that explains why 2020's global number stayed low.

Why this matters now

This study is the mechanism behind the headline: land-use change, not weather, drives the global trend.

April 2016

NASA detects global greening (2016)

Satellite analysis found the planet had grown measurably greener over three decades, with added leaf cover across large regions. Rising carbon dioxide and land management were named as drivers. The result surprised many who expected only decline.

Then

The finding circulated as a rare piece of counterintuitive environmental data.

Now

It reinforced how satellite records can reveal planetary trends that clash with catastrophe narratives.

Why this matters now

Both stories show orbital data overturning a popular assumption, and both trace back to how humans use land.