1
Senate clears the bill before the midterms
Possible
Resolves by Jan 3, 2027
Discussed by: Senate Majority Leader John Thune; Sen. Jon Husted's office
Thune said the House bill could clear the Senate before the November elections, likely through unanimous consent given the crowded floor agenda. Husted introduced the companion bill and is talking with senators about moving it. Passage would send the measure to President Trump's desk, with the first state hearings required within a year of enactment.
2
Bill dies with the 119th Congress
Possible
Resolves by Jan 3, 2027
Discussed by: Sen. Martin Heinrich; The Hill and Roll Call coverage of Senate uncertainty
The bill faces a full Senate calendar and a skeptical top Democrat who calls it toothless. If it misses this month's window, it lands in the post-election lame-duck session, where a dozen other priorities compete for time. Tlaib's opposition from the left shows the measure also lacks a progressive base of support.
3
Enacted, but states change little
Likely
Resolves by Sep 16, 2028
Discussed by: Allison Clements, former FERC commissioner; Tyson Slocum, energy policy advocate quoted by SAN
Even if signed into law, the bill only requires hearings, not adoption. Around half of states already require large-load tariffs for data centers, so the mandate is duplicative there. Clements said the requirement would be "duplicative in a lot of states" and far from sufficient. Advocates see the main value as forcing proceedings in states with no data center rate standards at all.
4
Senate clears a stronger version before the midterms
Possible
Resolves by Nov 3, 2026
Discussed by: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.); Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio)
Heinrich's alternative would make data centers and other large industrial power users pay for grid upgrades, not just consider doing so. Moreno blocked the alternative on September 17 but left the door open for negotiation. If the two reach a deal, a revised bill could move by unanimous consent before the November elections.
5
Standoff carries into the lame-duck session
Likely
Resolves by Jan 3, 2027
Discussed by: Washington Times reporting on the House adjournment; Senate Majority Leader John Thune
The House adjourned after the September 16 vote until after the November 3 election. If the Senate cannot clear the House-passed bill by unanimous consent before then, any amended version would need House action in the post-election session, competing with permitting reform and appropriations for floor time.
6
Permitting deal assigns data center grid costs in November
Uncertain
Resolves by End of 2026
Discussed by: Politico reporting on the Senate permitting agreement; Alpha Briefing analysis
A Senate permitting deal reportedly assigns transmission costs for large computational loads of 20 megawatts or more to the data centers themselves, with exit charges and a bar on recovering those costs from other customers. The Senate is set to take up amendments when it reconvenes in November. The House may resist parts of the package, and the administration's treatment of renewables stays open.
7
States keep legislating while Congress stalls
Likely
Resolves by Q2 2027
Discussed by: Environment+Energy Leader coverage of California and Virginia actions
California law and a proposed Virginia framework already push data center grid costs onto the companies, and FERC guidance points regional grids toward assigning costs to data center growth zones. If the federal bill stays stalled, more states could act on their own through 2027.
8
Local ballot measures restrict data centers after the federal bill stays stalled
Likely
Resolves by Nov 4, 2026
Discussed by: Big Energy News coverage of Ohio ballot measures
With Congress in recess until after November 3, 38 local data center measures go before voters nationwide, 20 in Ohio alone. Pataskala's charter amendment would permanently bar new data centers over 25 megawatts regardless of developer. If local restrictions pass, they could slow buildout and reshape where data centers locate, even if the federal bill dies in the lame-duck session.