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BJP Ends 25-Year Thackeray Rule in Mumbai

BJP Ends 25-Year Thackeray Rule in Mumbai

The Shiv Sena split delivers India's richest municipal corporation to the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance

Overview

The Shiv Sena controlled Mumbai's municipal government for 25 years. On January 17, 2026, that ended. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance won 118 of 227 seats in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election, securing control of India's richest civic body—an entity with a ₹74,000 crore annual budget larger than several Indian states.

The victory was made possible by the 2022 split that fractured the Shiv Sena into rival factions. With the original party divided, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats, while the Thackeray-led faction won 65. For the first time, a BJP mayor will govern Mumbai—completing the party's vertical integration from Parliament to state assembly to civic body.

Key Indicators

89
BJP seats won
Single largest party in BMC, up from 82 in 2017
25
Years of Thackeray control
Shiv Sena governed BMC continuously since 1997
₹74,400 Cr
BMC annual budget
Asia's richest municipal corporation, larger than five Indian states
25/29
Mahayuti corporation wins
Alliance swept Maharashtra's major cities

People Involved

Devendra Fadnavis
Devendra Fadnavis
Chief Minister of Maharashtra (Third term as CM since December 2024)
Uddhav Thackeray
Uddhav Thackeray
President, Shiv Sena (UBT) (Opposition leader; party won 65 BMC seats)
Eknath Shinde
Eknath Shinde
Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra; Shiv Sena President (Alliance partner controlling 29 BMC seats)
Raj Thackeray
Raj Thackeray
President, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) (Alliance with cousin yielded only 6 BMC seats)

Organizations Involved

BR
Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)
Municipal Corporation
Status: Mahayuti alliance controls 118 of 227 seats

India's largest and richest municipal corporation, governing Mumbai's 20 million residents with a budget exceeding ₹74,400 crore.

MA
Mahayuti Alliance
Political Alliance
Status: Governing alliance in Maharashtra; won 25 of 29 municipal corporations

Coalition of BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar's NCP that governs Maharashtra.

Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray)
Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray)
Political Party
Status: Opposition; second-largest party in BMC with 65 seats

The faction of Shiv Sena that remained loyal to Uddhav Thackeray after the 2022 split.

Timeline

  1. BJP-Led Alliance Wins BMC Majority

    Election

    Mahayuti secures 118 of 227 seats. BJP wins 89 as single largest party. Shiv Sena (UBT) takes 65. Thackeray family's 25-year control ends.

  2. BMC Election Held After 9-Year Gap

    Election

    Mumbai votes in first BMC election since 2017. Turnout reaches 52.94%, slightly below 2017's 55.53%.

  3. Thackeray Cousins Reunite

    Political

    Uddhav and Raj Thackeray announce alliance between Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS for BMC elections, ending 20-year rift.

  4. Fadnavis Returns as Chief Minister

    Political

    Devendra Fadnavis sworn in for third term as CM. Shinde and Ajit Pawar become Deputy CMs.

  5. Mahayuti Wins State Landslide

    Election

    BJP-led alliance wins 235 of 288 state assembly seats. BJP alone takes 132 seats. Uddhav's faction reduced to 20 seats.

  6. Shinde Faction Wins Party Name

    Legal

    Election Commission awards 'Shiv Sena' name and bow-and-arrow symbol to Shinde's faction based on legislative strength.

  7. Shinde Becomes Chief Minister

    Political

    Eknath Shinde sworn in as CM with BJP's Devendra Fadnavis as Deputy CM, forming the Mahayuti alliance.

  8. Eknath Shinde Triggers Shiv Sena Split

    Political

    Shinde leads majority of Shiv Sena MLAs to Gujarat, precipitating collapse of Uddhav's government and splitting the party.

  9. BMC Term Expires

    Administrative

    The elected BMC body's term expires. Due to COVID delays and OBC reservation disputes, no new election is held; administrators take over.

  10. Uddhav Thackeray Breaks with BJP

    Political

    After BJP refuses to share the Chief Minister post, Uddhav forms government with Congress and NCP as the Maha Vikas Aghadi, becoming CM himself.

  11. Last BMC Election Before Split

    Election

    Shiv Sena wins 84 seats, BJP 82. The parties contest separately but neither wins majority; they later cooperate on mayor selection.

  12. Bal Thackeray Dies

    Political

    Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray dies at 86. His son Uddhav takes full control of the party.

  13. Raj Thackeray Leaves Shiv Sena

    Political

    Bal Thackeray's nephew Raj leaves the party to form the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, beginning a 20-year estrangement between the Thackeray cousins.

  14. Shiv Sena Takes Control of BMC

    Political

    The undivided Shiv Sena wins control of the BMC, beginning 25 years of Thackeray-family dominance over Mumbai's civic government.

  15. Bal Thackeray Founds Shiv Sena

    Political

    Bal Thackeray establishes Shiv Sena in Mumbai as a movement for Marathi speakers, initially focused on opposing migration from other Indian states.

Scenarios

1

BJP Consolidates Urban Maharashtra

Discussed by: The Quint, India TV, political analysts

The BJP installs its first Mumbai mayor and uses control of 25 municipal corporations to cement organizational presence in urban Maharashtra. With state government, civic bodies, and parliamentary seats aligned, the party builds infrastructure and patronage networks that make future opposition victories increasingly difficult. The Thackeray factions remain fragmented and unable to mount coordinated challenges.

2

Shiv Sena Factions Eventually Reunify

Discussed by: Outlook India, political observers tracking Thackeray family dynamics

With the Thackeray-Shinde split proving electorally costly for both factions, pressure builds for reconciliation. The Shinde faction's dependence on BJP generosity and Uddhav's electoral weakness could create conditions for merger talks, particularly if BJP overreach creates shared grievances. A reunified Shiv Sena would reclaim Marathi identity politics and challenge BJP dominance.

3

Congress Builds Urban Opposition Base

Discussed by: The Quint analysis of Congress performance

Congress shows resilience by winning four municipal corporations outright and emerging as main opposition in several others. If the party addresses its weakness among urban middle-class voters and consolidates Muslim and Dalit support, it could position itself as the primary alternative to BJP in Maharashtra's cities, marginalizing both Shiv Sena factions.

4

Anti-Incumbency Hits Mahayuti in 2027 Local Elections

Discussed by: General political analysis of incumbency patterns

Governing Mumbai brings responsibility for water, roads, health, and infrastructure. If the Mahayuti alliance fails to deliver visible improvements or faces corruption scandals, the 2027-2028 cycle could see opposition resurgence. The Shiv Sena (UBT)'s 65-seat showing suggests a loyal base that could expand with effective governance failures.

Historical Context

DMK Ends Congress Dominance in Tamil Nadu (1967)

February 1967

What Happened

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam defeated the Indian National Congress in Madras state elections, ending Congress's unbroken post-independence dominance in the region. The DMK won on a platform of Tamil identity and opposition to Hindi imposition, securing 138 seats to Congress's 50.

Outcome

Short Term

DMK's C.N. Annadurai became Chief Minister. Congress never regained power in Tamil Nadu.

Long Term

Established permanent regional party control of Tamil Nadu. National parties have since won the state only through alliances with DMK or AIADMK.

Why It's Relevant Today

Like the BMC shift, the 1967 Tamil Nadu result ended long-standing party dominance. But the parallel runs in reverse: in 1967, a regional party displaced a national one. In 2026, a national party displaced a regional one. Both illustrate how party splits and identity politics can rapidly reshape seemingly permanent electoral maps.

AAP Ends BJP's 15-Year MCD Control in Delhi (2022)

December 2022

What Happened

The Aam Aadmi Party won 134 of 250 seats in Delhi's Municipal Corporation election, ending 15 years of BJP control. The BJP fell to 104 seats. AAP's vote share surged from 21% to 42%.

Outcome

Short Term

AAP consolidated control of both Delhi's state government and municipal corporation.

Long Term

BJP regrouped and won the 2025 Delhi state elections, demonstrating that municipal losses don't prevent state-level recovery.

Why It's Relevant Today

Shows municipal control can shift rapidly but isn't necessarily permanent. The BJP's 2025 Delhi recovery suggests the Thackeray factions could potentially reclaim civic power if they consolidate and the ruling alliance falters.

TMC Ends 34-Year Left Front Rule in West Bengal (2011)

May 2011

What Happened

Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress won 227 of 294 state assembly seats, ending the Communist-led Left Front's 34-year continuous rule. The Left had governed since 1977, the longest democratically-elected communist government in history.

Outcome

Short Term

Complete collapse of Left Front organizational networks across West Bengal.

Long Term

TMC has governed continuously since, though BJP emerged as main challenger by 2019, replacing the Left as opposition.

Why It's Relevant Today

Demonstrates that even deeply-rooted political machines can collapse suddenly when party splits or leadership failures create openings. The Left's organizational decay in Bengal parallels questions about whether the split Shiv Sena can rebuild its grassroots machinery.

14 Sources:
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