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US sanctions prompt Iranian airlines to suspend flights to five destinations

US sanctions prompt Iranian airlines to suspend flights to five destinations

Rule Changes

A one-month US license restored flights to Iraq's Najaf, capped at 40 a day. It expired on October 28 with no renewal announced.

Overview

Updated Nov 1

A one-month US license that let Iranian airlines fly to Iraq's Najaf, capped at 40 flights a day and excluding Mahan Air, expired on October 28. No renewal had been announced as of November 4, and most of Iran's other foreign routes remain shut.

Iranian carriers are down to a short list of destinations, with Turkey and China still open to them. Tehran has asked the United Nations and the International Court of Justice to rule the sanctions illegal.

Why it matters

The sanctions cut most of Iran's air links, stranding travellers and closing off a revenue source for its airlines.

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Key Indicators

40
Daily Najaf flights allowed
The one-month US license capped Iranian service to Najaf at 40 daily flights and excluded Mahan Air. It expired on October 28 with no renewal announced.
5
Destinations cut on September 23
Flights to Baghdad, Muscat, Doha, Tbilisi and Baku stopped when the US wind-down period ended.

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People Involved

Organizations Involved

Timeline

August 2026 October 2026

9 events Latest: October 28th, 2026 · 2 weeks ago
Tap a bar to jump to that date
  1. Najaf flight license reaches expiry

    Latest Regulatory

    The one-month US exemption allowing up to 40 daily Iranian flights to Najaf was set to expire. No announcement of renewal had been reported by November 1.

  2. Iranian airlines resume flights to Najaf

    Diplomatic

    Flights returned to the Iraqi holy city under a one-month US exemption that excludes Mahan Air and caps service at 40 daily flights.

  3. Iran resumes flights to Oman and Azerbaijan

    Diplomatic

    Iran's civil aviation regulator received signals to resume reciprocal flights to Oman and southern Azerbaijan, adding to the Najaf exception.

  4. Iranian airlines suspend flights to five destinations

    Disruption

    Wind-down expires; flights to Baghdad, Muscat, Doha, Tbilisi, and Baku stop.

  5. Bessent warns service providers of secondary sanctions

    Statement

    Treasury Secretary announces a wind-down period and warns airports and service firms they face secondary sanctions if they keep serving Iranian carriers. President Trump separately calls the strategy 'economic D-Day.'

  6. OFAC sanctions 36 targets, including 27 airlines

    Sanctions

    Treasury designates Iranian airlines, accusing them of transporting weapons and personnel.

  7. UAE suspends flights by Iranian airlines

    Disruption

    Iranian media reported that the United Arab Emirates stopped accepting flights by Iranian carriers to comply with the US sanctions. Turkey stayed open to Iranian travellers.

  8. Treasury designates Iran's aviation sector under E.O. 13902

    Rule Change

    Treasury determines aviation qualifies for sector sanctions under the order targeting Iran's economy.

Scenarios

1

Iran restores partial service via third-country airports

Deadline passed (Nov 1, 2026)

Discussed by: bne IntelliNews, aviation analysts

Iran's Civil Aviation Organization negotiates to divert flights through airports that ignore U.S. pressure, such as Najaf, Sulaymaniyah, and Yerevan. Carriers use local currencies and barter to avoid dollar payments, resuming service to some of the suspended destinations.

2

Iranian international network contracts to China, Russia, and a handful of allies

Likely Resolves by Dec 1, 2026

Discussed by: Al Jazeera, AirMag

Secondary sanctions prove too broad, and Iranian carriers only serve countries with deep ties to Tehran, like China, Russia, and Syria. Land border crossings become the primary exit route, and overflight revenue disappears.

3

US issues humanitarian carve-out for civilian flights

Unlikely Resolves by Q1 2027

Discussed by: Diplomatic observers, think tanks

Amid international backlash, the U.S. issues a general license allowing Iranian airlines to fly to specific destinations for humanitarian reasons, similar to past waivers for medical supplies. This would restore some routes but leave most sanctions intact.

4

US renews Najaf exemption after October 28

Deadline passed (Oct 28, 2026)

Discussed by: Asharq Al-Awsat, The National

Washington's Najaf license was set to expire October 28. As of November 1 no renewal had been announced. Renewal would likely keep the exemption narrow, with Mahan Air excluded and service capped at 40 daily flights.

Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

January 2012 – November 2013

Iran nuclear-era oil sanctions (2012)

The U.S. and EU imposed secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian crude, threatening to cut them off from the U.S. financial system. Iran's oil exports fell from about 2.5 million barrels a day to under 1 million.

Then

Iran's economy contracted, the currency devalued, and oil revenue collapsed.

Now

The pressure brought Iran to the negotiating table, leading to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal.

Why this matters now

Same secondary-sanctions mechanism is now used to isolate Iranian aviation, and it proved effective in forcing economic concessions.

2020

Venezuela's Conviasa grounding (2020)

U.S. Treasury sanctioned Venezuela's state oil company and targeted service providers, leaving airlines unable to obtain jet fuel or maintenance. State carrier Conviasa halted most international flights.

Then

Venezuela's air connectivity collapsed, with only a few flights to Cuba and Russia remaining.

Now

The carrier relies on third-country intermediaries and smuggled parts to operate a minimal network.

Why this matters now

Shows how targeting ground services, fuel, and ticketing can ground an entire national carrier.

May 2018 – 2020

Iran's aviation isolation after 2018 JCPOA collapse

After the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear deal, sanctions prevented Iranian airlines from buying Western aircraft and spare parts. The aging fleet increasingly relied on smuggled parts and third-country intermediaries.

Then

Iranian airlines cut long-haul routes and reduced their fleet size.

Now

Maintained limited regional service, but the sector was already fragile before the current sanctions.

Why this matters now

The 2026 sanctions compound this existing fragility, pushing a weakened sector toward collapse.

Sources

(17)