1
Italy adopts nuclear decrees, SMR program moves forward
Likely
Resolves by Q3 2027
Discussed by: Government officials including Energy Minister Pichetto Fratin
The government writes the implementing decrees covering reactor licensing, safety standards, waste management, and siting criteria within the law's 12-month window. Pichetto says decrees could arrive by the end of 2026. With rules in place, the government can seek private partners for small modular reactor projects and begin site selection, keeping the 2033–2034 startup target within reach.
2
Decree timeline slips under local, legal, and EU pressure
Possible
Resolves by Q1 2028
Discussed by: Five Star Movement, environmental opponents, energy analysts
Local resistance to reactor siting, the unresolved national waste repository, or EU procedural reviews push the decree process past its deadline. Construction targets slide from 2033–2034 toward the late 2030s, and private investors grow cautious about committing capital to projects without clear regulatory closure.
3
Anti-nuclear referendum forces another public vote
Unlikely
Resolves by End of 2029
Discussed by: Anti-nuclear movements; political precedent since 1987
Citizens' groups and opposition parties gather the 500,000 signatures needed to petition an abrogative referendum, as happened in 1987 and 2011. If scheduled, the referendum could overturn the law before any reactor is built, repeating the pattern that has blocked nuclear power in Italy twice before.
4
EDF-led consortium advances SMR project toward 2035
Possible
Resolves by Oct 15, 2027
Discussed by: EDF, Nuward, Edison, Ansaldo, Maire
EDF and its Italian partners target 2035 for the first reactor, later than the government's 2033-34 estimate. The consortium's progress depends on the implementing decrees, including the 'licence passport' for fast-tracking foreign safety certifications.
5
Waste repository siting stays unresolved toward 2041
Likely
Discussed by: Sogin, Arera, anti-nuclear groups
Italy has searched for a national radioactive waste repository site for more than 20 years without success. Sogin says the repository must take about 84,000 cubic metres of low-level waste and hold another 14,000 cubic metres of medium and high-activity waste temporarily. Arera's parliamentary testimony pointed to 2041 for the repository, the same year Pichetto now expects first reactors. Without a site, public acceptance of new reactors stays weak and licensing may stall.