Mauritius becomes first country to reverse type 2 diabetes trend

Overview

Updated 2 hours ago

For decades, nearly every country that measured type 2 diabetes watched the number climb. Mauritius just became the first to show it falling. The island's prevalence peaked at 23.3% in 2009 and dropped to 19.9% by 2021, according to a study in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

The decline rests on an unusual asset. Since 1987 Mauritius has run the same gold-standard blood test, the two-hour oral glucose tolerance test, in seven population surveys covering about 37,000 examinations. No other country has done this, so the reversal is the first of its kind, and the authors credit multisectoral policy, free public health care, and systematic screening.

Why it matters

If the decline holds, it proves that national action can bend the curve on a disease that has risen in nearly every country for decades.

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Key Indicators

19.9%

2021 type 2 diabetes prevalence

Down from a 23.3% peak in 2009, the first sustained decline recorded anywhere.

23.3%

Peak prevalence in 2009

The highest rate registered across 34 years of national surveys.

14.7%

1987 baseline prevalence

The starting point when Mauritius began its survey program.

National OGTT surveys since 1987

Each round had participation above 85% of the target population.

Voices

Curated perspectives — historical figures and your fellow readers.

Ever wondered what historical figures would say about today's headlines?

People Involved

Jaakko Tuomilehto

Professor of Public Health, University of Helsinki; study co-author

Among the authors of the 2026 Lancet report on the Mauritius surveys

Stefan Söderberg

Researcher, Umeå University; study co-author

Publicly described how Mauritius achieved the reversal

Organizations Involved

Mauritius Ministry of Health and Wellness

Government Ministry

Runs the national NCD survey program that produced the data

The government body that has conducted Mauritius' national noncommunicable disease surveys since 1987.

The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology

Medical Journal

Published the analysis and an accompanying commentary

The peer-reviewed journal that published the 34-year Mauritius survey analysis in 2026.

Umeå University

Research University

Long-term research partner in the Mauritius study

Swedish research group that has helped design and analyze the Mauritius surveys since the mid-1980s.

Timeline

1987 October 2026

6 events Latest: 2 days ago

Tap a bar to jump to that date

October 2026
Finding reaches a broader audience
Latest Report

Human Progress publishes the finding, framing Mauritius as the first country to show falling type 2 diabetes rates.
2 days ago
September 2026
Lancet study reports the first sustained reversal
Publication

The analysis of 1987-2021 data is published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology and presented at the EASD meeting in Milan.
September 2026
2021
Seventh survey records the decline to 19.9%
Survey

Prevalence falls across sexes, age groups, and ethnicities. Newly diagnosed cases drop to 32.5% of all diabetes.
2021
2015
Prevalence still elevated at 22.9%
Survey

The sixth survey shows rates essentially flat from the 2009 peak.
2015
2009
Prevalence peaks at 23.3%
Survey

The fifth survey records the highest diabetes rate in the program's history.
2009
1987
First national NCD survey establishes baseline
Survey

Type 2 diabetes prevalence measured at 14.7% using the oral glucose tolerance test.
1987

Scenarios

Mauritius's next survey confirms the decline

Likely Resolves by End of 2028

Discussed by: Study authors and The Lancet commentary

The next national NCD survey, expected around 2026-2027 under the five-year cycle, reports age-standardized type 2 diabetes prevalence below 19.9%. That would extend the reversal to a second consecutive cycle and strengthen the case that the decline is durable rather than a one-off drop.

Reversal stalls; prevalence plateaus or rises

Unlikely Resolves by End of 2028

Discussed by: Thieme Praxis commentary and other cautious readings

Nearly one in five adults aged 25-74 in Mauritius still has type 2 diabetes, and the Thieme commentary warns the epidemic is not over. Prevalence is influenced by survival, migration, diagnosis, and treatment, so the next survey could show rates leveling off or climbing again rather than continuing to fall.

OGTT becomes the global surveillance gold standard

Possible Resolves by End of 2028

Discussed by: The Lancet commentary authors

The Lancet commentary argues the study's main contribution is showing that sustained, high-quality surveillance can reveal epidemiological change with confidence. The World Health Organization or the International Diabetes Federation could formally recommend the two-hour oral glucose tolerance test for national prevalence surveys, following the Mauritius model.

Historical Context

2 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1972-1997

North Karelia Project (1972-1997), Finland

In 1972, Finland's North Karelia region had some of the world's highest heart disease death rates. Local leaders and researchers launched a community-wide prevention program targeting smoking, diet, and blood pressure across the whole population.

Then

Cardiovascular risk factors and death rates began falling within a decade.

Now

Working-age male cardiovascular mortality eventually fell by roughly 80%, and the project became the global template for community-based chronic disease prevention.

Why this matters now

The Mauritius authors cite cardiovascular disease as proof that national epidemics can be reversed through systematic, multisectoral action. Both cases combined sustained monitoring with community-engaged policy rather than a single medical fix.

1990s-2000s

US male lung cancer deaths decline (1990s-2000s)

US male lung cancer death rates peaked around 1990 and then fell steadily for two decades, decades after smoking rates began dropping in the 1960s and 1970s.

Then

Mortality declined year after year, reflecting the lagged effect of earlier tobacco control.

Now

The reversal showed that a chronic disease epidemic built over decades could also be unwound over decades.

Why this matters now

The Mauritius authors cite lung cancer alongside cardiovascular disease as evidence that long-term noncommunicable disease trends are reversible. Diabetes, like lung cancer, takes years for policy changes to show up in population rates.