Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican governor since 2006. Senator Amy Klobuchar wants to keep it that way. On January 29, 2026, she announced her candidacy for governor, entering the race three weeks after Tim Walz abruptly dropped his bid for a third term amid a fraud scandal that prosecutors say could total $9 billion in stolen state funds. Early polling shows Klobuchar leading all potential Republican opponents by 14 to 20 percentage points. On February 4, Minnesota's precinct caucuses revealed the GOP primary landscape: House Speaker Lisa Demuth won decisively with 31.8% of the vote, followed by businessman Kendall Qualls at 25.2% and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell at 17.6%. Hours after Klobuchar's January 29 announcement, Border Czar Tom Homan signaled the federal government may reduce its immigration enforcement presence in Minnesota if state officials cooperate—a development that could reshape the campaign's central tension.
Klobuchar inherits a state in crisis. Federal immigration agents have killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis since January 7, and a federal judge found ICE violated at least 96 court orders in Minnesota in January alone. Thousands participated in a nationwide general strike on January 30 to protest the immigration crackdown. A mass shooting at Annunciation Catholic School killed two children in August 2025. Former House Speaker Melissa Hortman was assassinated in June 2025. The four-term senator frames her candidacy around these traumas: 'We cannot sugarcoat how hard this is.' Meanwhile, House Republicans have summoned Walz to testify at a March 4 hearing on the fraud allegations. On February 2, the Department of Homeland Security announced that all deployed law enforcement officers would be issued body cameras. If elected, Klobuchar would become Minnesota's first female governor—a distinction no major party has even nominated a woman to pursue.
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People Involved
Amy Klobuchar
U.S. Senator (D-MN), 2026 Gubernatorial Candidate (Running for Governor)
Tim Walz
Governor of Minnesota (2019-present) (Not seeking reelection; term ends January 2027)
Lisa Demuth
Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives (Seeking GOP gubernatorial nomination; won February 4 precinct caucuses with 31.8%)
Mike Lindell
MyPillow CEO, 2026 Gubernatorial Candidate (Seeking GOP gubernatorial nomination; placed third in February 4 precinct caucuses)
Tim Pawlenty
Former Governor of Minnesota (2003-2011) (Political commentator; not running)
Kendall Qualls
Businessman, 2026 Gubernatorial Candidate (Seeking GOP gubernatorial nomination; placed second in February 4 precinct caucuses)
Tom Homan
Border Czar, Trump Administration (Leading Operation Metro Surge in Minnesota)
Keith Ellison
Minnesota Attorney General (Leading legal challenge to Operation Metro Surge)
Patrick J. Schiltz
Chief U.S. District Judge for the District of Minnesota (Presiding over ICE enforcement litigation)
James Comer
Chairman, House Oversight Committee (Leading congressional investigation into Minnesota fraud)
Chris Madel
Attorney, Former 2026 Gubernatorial Candidate (Withdrew from gubernatorial race on January 26, 2026)
Katherine Menendez
U.S. District Judge for the District of Minnesota (Presiding over Operation Metro Surge litigation)
Organizations Involved
MI
Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party
Political Party
Status: Defending governorship
Minnesota's affiliate of the national Democratic Party, formed from a 1944 merger of the Democratic and Farmer-Labor parties.
RE
Republican Party of Minnesota
Political Party
Status: Seeking first statewide win since 2006
Minnesota's Republican Party, which hasn't won a statewide race in two decades despite consistent competitiveness in federal elections.
OP
Operation Metro Surge
Federal Law Enforcement Operation
Status: Ongoing; potential drawdown announced
The largest immigration enforcement operation ever conducted in the United States, deploying approximately 3,000 federal agents to Minneapolis.
HO
House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
Congressional Committee
Status: Investigating Minnesota fraud allegations
Congressional committee investigating alleged fraud in Minnesota state programs and whistleblower retaliation.
Timeline
GOP precinct caucuses reveal Demuth as frontrunner
Campaign
Minnesota Republican precinct caucuses show House Speaker Lisa Demuth winning decisively with 31.8%, followed by Kendall Qualls (25.2%) and Mike Lindell (17.6%). Results establish Demuth as the GOP primary frontrunner heading into the endorsement process.
Klobuchar leads all GOP candidates in early polling
Campaign
KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows Klobuchar leading all potential Republican opponents by 14 to 20 percentage points, with strong support among Democrats (89%), independents, and crossover Republicans.
DHS deploys body cameras for all agents in Minnesota
Policy
Department of Homeland Security announces that all deployed law enforcement officers in Minnesota will be issued body cameras, a response to controversies surrounding Operation Metro Surge.
Federal judge denies request to halt Operation Metro Surge
Legal
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez denies Minnesota's motion for a temporary restraining order, allowing Operation Metro Surge to continue while the broader lawsuit proceeds. The judge calls the consequences 'profound and even heart breaking' but rules Minnesota has not met its burden of proof.
Nationwide general strike protests ICE surge
Campaign
Thousands march through downtown Minneapolis as part of nationwide demonstrations calling for an end to Operation Metro Surge. Protests occur in all 50 states following calls for Americans to skip work, school, and shopping.
Congressional fraud hearing rescheduled to March 4
Legal
House Oversight Committee confirms Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison will testify on March 4, 2026 at 'Oversight of Fraud and Misuse of Federal Funds in Minnesota: Part II' hearing, rescheduled from original February 10 date.
Klobuchar announces gubernatorial campaign
Campaign
Senator Amy Klobuchar announces her candidacy for Minnesota governor, becoming the immediate DFL frontrunner and potentially the state's first female governor.
Border Czar signals potential ICE drawdown
Policy
Tom Homan announces federal government is developing plans to reduce immigration enforcement presence in Minnesota, contingent on state and local cooperation.
Homan takes over Minnesota immigration operation
Policy
Border Czar Tom Homan arrives in Minnesota and removes Greg Bovino from command of Operation Metro Surge, signaling operational changes and potential drawdown if state officials cooperate with federal authorities.
Federal judge finds ICE violated 96+ court orders
Legal
U.S. District Judge Patrick Schiltz rules that ICE violated at least 96 court orders in Minnesota since January 1, 2026 during Operation Metro Surge.
Minnesota sues to halt ICE surge
Legal
Attorney General Keith Ellison, Minneapolis, and Saint Paul file federal lawsuit seeking to end Operation Metro Surge, arguing it serves 'retribution' rather than legitimate enforcement purposes.
Republican Chris Madel exits gubernatorial race
Campaign
GOP attorney Chris Madel drops out of the Minnesota governor's race, calling Operation Metro Surge 'an unmitigated disaster' and saying he cannot support 'national Republicans' stated retribution' on Minnesota citizens.
Border Patrol agents kill Alex Pretti
Violence
Federal agents fatally shoot Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse and legal observer, amid anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis. Videos contradict DHS claims he brandished a weapon.
First general strike in 80 years
Campaign
Labor unions, community organizations, and faith leaders call for statewide demonstrations to oppose ICE operations and demand accountability—the first general strike in the United States in 80 years.
ICE reports 3,000 arrests in Operation Metro Surge
Policy
Department of Homeland Security announces 3,000 arrests in Minneapolis since the start of Operation Metro Surge, calling it the 'largest immigration operation ever.'
ICE agent kills Renee Good in Minneapolis
Violence
ICE agent Jonathan Ross fatally shoots 37-year-old U.S. citizen Renee Good during an immigration operation. Video contradicts federal claims she was 'weaponizing her SUV.'
Governor Walz drops reelection bid
Campaign
Tim Walz announces he will not seek a third term, citing the need to focus on addressing fraud allegations rather than campaigning. He says he will never run for office again.
Congressional hearing scheduled for Walz testimony
Legal
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer schedules February 10, 2026 public hearing, demanding Walz and Attorney General Ellison testify about fraud allegations and whistleblower retaliation.
Qualls wins GOP gubernatorial straw poll
Campaign
Businessman Kendall Qualls wins Minnesota Republican Party straw poll with House Speaker Lisa Demuth second (90 votes) and Mike Lindell third (49 votes).
Mike Lindell announces gubernatorial bid
Campaign
MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell announces his candidacy for governor with Donald Trump's endorsement, joining the crowded Republican primary.
House Speaker Demuth enters gubernatorial race
Campaign
Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth announces her campaign for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, positioning herself as an experienced legislator.
Annunciation Catholic School mass shooting
Violence
A gunman kills two children and injures 28 others during Mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis. The FBI investigates it as domestic terrorism.
Former House Speaker Hortman assassinated
Violence
Former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband are killed at their Brooklyn Park home by a gunman impersonating police. State Senator John Hoffman and his wife are shot the same morning.
DOJ announces Feeding Our Future indictments
Legal
Federal prosecutors announce charges against 47 defendants in what they call the largest pandemic relief fraud scheme in the country.
Feeding Our Future fraud begins scaling up
Background
The nonprofit Feeding Our Future, which claimed to feed children during COVID-19, begins dramatically expanding fraudulent meal claims during the pandemic.
Scenarios
1
Klobuchar Wins, Extends DFL Streak to Five
Discussed by: Former Governor Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota political analysts at MPR News and Star Tribune
Klobuchar's history of double-digit wins and crossover appeal makes her the prohibitive favorite. She consolidates DFL support, outperforms Republicans in the Twin Cities suburbs, and becomes Minnesota's first female governor while extending the party's gubernatorial winning streak to an unprecedented five consecutive terms. The Republican primary produces either a mainstream candidate weakened by intraparty fighting or an unelectable nominee like Lindell.
2
GOP Breaks 20-Year Drought with Demuth Win
Discussed by: Tim Pawlenty, Republican strategists including Amy Frederiksen
The fraud scandal and crisis atmosphere suppress DFL turnout while energizing Republicans. Lisa Demuth wins a competitive primary by positioning herself as a credible, experienced alternative to Lindell. She runs on fraud accountability and public safety, narrowly defeating Klobuchar in what Pawlenty calls Republicans' 'best chance' in two decades. Her victory would make her Minnesota's first female governor and first Black statewide officeholder.
3
Lindell Wins Primary, Loses General Badly
Discussed by: GOP strategist Amy Frederiksen, national political media
Trump's endorsement and Lindell's fervent base carry him through the caucus-convention process to the GOP nomination. But his defamation judgments, election denialism, and polarizing persona prove toxic in a general election. Klobuchar wins by her typical double-digit margin, Republicans waste their best opportunity in a generation, and the party's statewide drought extends past a quarter century.
4
Federal Crisis Reshapes Race Entirely
Discussed by: Political observers noting volatility of ICE enforcement situation
Additional violent incidents involving federal immigration enforcement, or dramatic new developments in the fraud investigations, fundamentally alter the campaign environment in unpredictable ways. Either party could benefit depending on whether voters blame federal overreach or state mismanagement. The race becomes a referendum on crisis management rather than normal partisan competition.
5
Operation Metro Surge Dominates Race, GOP Divided
Discussed by: Chris Madel's withdrawal statement, Minnesota political analysts
The ongoing federal immigration enforcement operation becomes the race's defining issue, splitting Republicans between those defending the Trump administration and those like Madel who call it retribution. The GOP primary fractures along this divide, producing a weakened nominee unable to consolidate party support. Klobuchar wins by running on defending Minnesota's sovereignty while maintaining law and order through state and local cooperation rather than federal occupation.
6
Demuth Wins GOP Primary, Faces Klobuchar in Competitive General
Discussed by: Minnesota political analysts, GOP strategists
Lisa Demuth's strong caucus performance positions her to win the GOP endorsement and primary. As the first Black female Republican House Speaker, she offers the GOP a credible, experienced alternative to Lindell. In a general election matchup, Demuth could narrow Klobuchar's polling lead by consolidating Republican voters and appealing to moderates concerned about fraud and public safety. The race becomes competitive but Klobuchar's structural advantages—20-year Democratic statewide winning streak, proven vote-getter, crossover appeal—likely prevail.
7
Lindell Surge Fractures GOP, Hands Race to Klobuchar
Discussed by: GOP strategists, national political media
Despite finishing third in caucuses, Lindell's Trump endorsement and fervent base mobilize in the endorsement process and primary. His nomination energizes the GOP base but alienates moderates and independents. Klobuchar wins by double digits, Republicans' best opportunity in 20 years slips away, and the statewide drought extends past a quarter century.
Historical Context
Jesse Ventura's 1998 Third-Party Victory
November 1998
What Happened
Former professional wrestler Jesse Ventura won Minnesota's governorship as a Reform Party candidate, defeating Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Hubert Humphrey III. He captured 37% of the vote in a three-way race that stunned the political establishment.
Outcome
Short Term
Ventura served one term but declined to seek reelection in 2002, citing the toll on his family from media scrutiny.
Long Term
The victory demonstrated Minnesota voters' willingness to make unconventional choices and reject establishment candidates, a dynamic some analysts see favoring Lindell's outsider candidacy.
Why It's Relevant Today
Lindell supporters cite Ventura as proof Minnesotans will elect unconventional figures. Critics note Ventura had crossover appeal Lindell lacks—Ventura won by running as a fiscal conservative and social moderate, while Lindell is defined by partisan election denialism.
When Tim Pawlenty left office in January 2011, he was replaced by Democrat Mark Dayton. Republicans have lost every subsequent gubernatorial election: 2014 (Dayton reelected), 2018 (Walz), and 2022 (Walz reelected). The GOP has also lost every other statewide race during this period.
Outcome
Short Term
Republicans have come close—Pawlenty won in 2006 by less than 1%, and several races have been competitive—but haven't broken through.
Long Term
The drought has become self-reinforcing: top-tier candidates avoid races they expect to lose, leaving the field to underfunded or flawed nominees.
Why It's Relevant Today
The fraud scandal and Walz's exit give Republicans their clearest path to victory in 20 years. But Klobuchar's entry restores the DFL's structural advantage: a proven vote-getter at the top of the ticket.
2020 Democratic Senate Primary: Klobuchar's Exit and Endorsement
March 2020
What Happened
Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the presidential race just before Super Tuesday and endorsed Joe Biden. Her withdrawal helped consolidate moderate support behind Biden, who went on to win the nomination and the presidency.
Outcome
Short Term
Klobuchar's endorsement was credited with helping Biden win Minnesota and establish momentum heading into the general election.
Long Term
The move demonstrated Klobuchar's willingness to prioritize party success over personal ambition, burnishing her reputation as a team player.
Why It's Relevant Today
Klobuchar's decision to leave the Senate for a governor's race reverses the typical political trajectory. It suggests she sees Minnesota's governorship as genuinely imperiled—or genuinely appealing—rather than a consolation prize.
