Persian Gulf shipping under attack as US-Iran war spreads to commercial tankers
Force in Play
US sinks 60+ Iranian vessels and all IRGC Soleimani warships amid 22+ incidents, Salalah/Dubai port strikes, Qatar tanker missile hit; Qatar resumes full navigation as seven allies back reopening Hormuz, oil holds above $100/bbl
US sinks 60+ Iranian vessels and all IRGC Soleimani warships amid 22+ incidents, Salalah/Dubai port strikes, Qatar tanker missile hit; Qatar resumes full navigation as seven allies back reopening Hormuz, oil holds above $100/bbl
Seven weeks into the US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz combat zone has seen over 22 UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)-reported vessel and port incidents since February 28, including three attacks on March 11 alone: an Iranian unmanned surface vessel struck the Thai-flagged MAYUREE NAREE cargo ship in the strait, causing fire and evacuation; a drone hit another cargo ship there; and a drone damaged a bulk carrier off Dubai. US Central Command sank over 60 Iranian naval vessels on March 11, including all four IRGC Navy Soleimani Class warships, while one successful US Navy-escorted tanker transit occurred on March 10. Attacks escalated to direct strikes on port infrastructure and tankers, with Iranian drones hitting Oman's Salalah port on March 28, a Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai port on March 31, and a missile striking an oil tanker off Qatar on April 1.
Seven weeks into the US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz combat zone has seen over 22 UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)-reported vessel and port incidents since February 28, including three attacks on March 11 alone: an Iranian unmanned surface vessel struck the Thai-flagged MAYUREE NAREE cargo ship in the strait, causing fire and evacuation; a drone hit another cargo ship there; and a drone damaged a bulk carrier off Dubai. US Central Command sank over 60 Iranian naval vessels on March 11, including all four IRGC Navy Soleimani Class warships, while one successful US Navy-escorted tanker transit occurred on March 10. Attacks escalated to direct strikes on port infrastructure and tankers, with Iranian drones hitting Oman's Salalah port on March 28, a Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai port on March 31, and a missile striking an oil tanker off Qatar on April 1.
Qatar resumed full maritime navigation in its waters on April 12, permitting all vessel types from 6:00 AM to 6:00 PM daily with unrestricted fishing access, ending weeks of restrictions imposed due to Iranian threats and attacks. This development indicates localized de-escalation in the central Persian Gulf, though the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with minimal transits.
Why it matters
Attacks on Gulf tankers and ports threaten 20% of world oil, spiking prices and disrupting global energy and supply chains.
Key Indicators
~0-3
Daily Strait of Hormuz transits
Minimal traffic with rare escorted transits; UKMTO reports 22+ incidents since war began, Hormuz remains closed despite Qatar navigation resumption April 12.
20,000
Stranded seafarers
Crew members trapped aboard 200+ vessels inside the Gulf with no safe evacuation route amid ongoing attacks.
~200
Tankers trapped in the Gulf
Including VLCCs idling with millions of barrels of oil; no mass breakout despite US insurance pledge, allied support, and Qatar reopening.
$100+/bbl
Brent crude price
Holding above $100/bbl amid persistent Hormuz disruptions despite Qatar navigation resumption April 12, following peak above $116/bbl on March 9.
22+
Vessel and port incidents reported
UKMTO tally exceeds 22 with three attacks on March 11 (MAYUREE NAREE USV strike, two drone hits), Salalah March 28, Dubai March 31, Qatar tanker April 1.
Full (daytime)
Qatar maritime navigation
Resumed April 12 for all vessels 6AM-6PM, fishing 24/7, after weeks of restrictions due to Iranian attacks.
Qatar resumes full maritime navigation after weeks of Iran conflict disruption
De-escalation
Qatar's Ministry of Transport announced full resumption of maritime navigation for all vessel types in Qatari waters starting April 12, 6:00 AM to 6:00 PM, with fishing unrestricted 24/7. Ends export paralysis from Iranian attacks and Hormuz closure.
Iranian missile strikes oil tanker off Qatar amid three-wave attack on Israel
Attack
One of three Iranian missiles hit an oil tanker off Qatar's coast with no injuries reported, as IRGC launched waves at Israel. Incident extends shipping attack zone eastward into central Gulf.
Iranian drone strikes Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai port, fire contained
Attack
The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reported that the oil tanker Al Salmi was struck by an Iranian drone while docked at a port in Dubai, causing a fire and damage to the vessel. Dubai authorities confirmed the fire was contained within hours and stated there was no oil leakage from the loaded tanker, marking escalation to Gulf state port infrastructure.
Iranian Drone Strike on Oman's Salalah Port Forces Maersk to Suspend Operations
Attack
Two drones struck the Port of Salalah in Oman, damaging a terminal crane and injuring one port worker. Maersk evacuated the facility and suspended operations for 48 hours. Iran claimed targeting a US Navy vessel but later denied civilian damage, marking escalation to Arabian Sea ports.
Seven allies declare readiness to contribute to reopening Strait of Hormuz
Diplomatic
UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, and Canada condemned Iran and stated readiness for efforts to ensure safe passage, calling for end to attacks and compliance with UNSC Resolution 2817.
Minimal transits persist with just three cargo vessels exiting Gulf
Economic
Only three cargo vessels reported transiting eastbound out of Persian Gulf on March 16-17 amid ongoing disruptions.
Iranian attacks on civilian vessels continue per ISW mapping
Attack
Institute for the Study of War mapped ongoing Iranian strikes against commercial shipping in Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as of March 12.
IRGC USVs and drones strike three vessels including MAYUREE NAREE; US sinks 60+ Iranian ships
Attack
Iranian media showed USV impact on Thai-flagged MAYUREE NAREE in Strait of Hormuz, causing fire and most crew evacuation; drone struck cargo ship in strait and bulk carrier off Dubai, no casualties. CENTCOM sank over 60 Iranian ships including all four IRGC Soleimani Class warships.
Three vessel attacks including USV strike on MAYUREE NAREE; US sinks 60+ Iranian ships and all IRGC Soleimani warships
Attack
Iranian USV hit Thai-flagged MAYUREE NAREE in Strait of Hormuz causing fire and evacuation; drone struck cargo ship in strait and bulk carrier off Dubai. CENTCOM sank over 60 Iranian vessels including all four IRGC Soleimani Class warships.
US destroys 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels; three cargo ships struck in Strait of Hormuz
Military
US Central Command struck 16 Iranian minelayers near the strait to prevent blockages; Iranian forces hit three commercial cargo vessels same day. UKMTO reports total 17 incidents since war began.
US Navy successfully escorts oil tanker through Strait of Hormuz
Military
First US Navy-escorted transit completed successfully amid ongoing IRGC threats; no further convoys announced.
Brent crude spikes above $116/bbl before pulling back
Economic
Oil prices hit multi-year highs amid strait closure fears, falling to $92/bbl on March 10 as markets react to US mine strikes.
International Maritime Organisation warns of humanitarian crisis
Humanitarian
The IMO warned that 20,000 seafarers and 15,000 cruise passengers were stranded in the Persian Gulf, with crew members unable to be evacuated from vessels trapped in a war zone.
An explosive-laden drone boat detonated against the port side of the Bahamas-flagged Suezmax tanker Sonangol Namibe while it sat at anchor 30 nautical miles southeast of Kuwait. The blast breached the hull and caused oil to leak into the water. It was the largest vessel attacked and the northernmost strike since hostilities began, extending the threat zone deep into the Persian Gulf.
IRGC claims complete control of Strait of Hormuz; only five transits recorded
Escalation
The IRGC announced full control of the strait. Satellite tracking data showed just five vessel crossings for the entire day, down from hundreds under normal conditions.
Trump orders government-backed shipping insurance, offers Navy escorts
Policy
President Trump directed the US Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for all maritime trade in the Gulf. He said the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. No convoy had yet sailed by March 5.
IRGC declares Strait of Hormuz closed, threatens to attack transiting ships
Escalation
A senior IRGC official confirmed the strait was closed and threatened to "set ablaze" any vessel attempting to pass. Tanker traffic dropped approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait. Major shipping lines including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC halted Gulf transits.
Major insurers cancel war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf
Economic
Leading maritime war-risk underwriters withdrew coverage for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf. Premiums that had already risen from 0.125% to 0.4% of insured hull value became unavailable entirely. Without insurance, shipping companies cannot legally operate.
First tanker attacks hit three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz
Attack
The Palau-flagged tanker Skylight was struck 5 nautical miles off Oman, injuring four crew. The crude carrier MKD Vyom took a projectile hit that caused an engine room fire and killed one crew member. A third vessel, the Sea La Donna, also reported an incident.
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
Military
Coordinated airstrikes hit Iranian military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership targets across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and other cities. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed.
Iran retaliates with missiles and drones across the region
Military
Iran launched Operation True Promise IV, firing missiles and drones at US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as at targets in Israel. The IRGC warned all vessels against transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Scenarios
1
US Navy begins convoy escorts; strait partially reopens under military protection
Discussed by: USNI News, Bloomberg, and maritime analysts drawing parallels to Operation Earnest Will (1987). The Trump administration has already announced the legal framework via the DFC insurance order.
The US Navy organizes convoy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, similar to Reagan-era reflagging operations during the 1980s tanker war. With government-backed insurance replacing commercial coverage and warships accompanying tankers, some shipping companies resume transits. Oil prices stabilize but remain elevated due to reduced throughput and the risk of Iranian mines or fast-boat attacks on convoys. This scenario depends on the US Navy having sufficient minesweeping capability to clear the strait and the political willingness to risk a direct naval confrontation with the IRGC.
2
Strait remains closed for weeks; oil prices spike above $100 as strategic reserves deploy
Discussed by: Energy analysts at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, CNBC, and the International Energy Agency. Analysts note that global strategic petroleum reserves, while substantial, cannot replace 20 million barrels per day of Gulf throughput indefinitely.
IRGC mining of the strait and continued drone-boat attacks prevent any reopening despite US military presence. Countries dependent on Gulf oil, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, draw down strategic reserves while scrambling for alternative supply. Brent crude climbs past $100 per barrel. Global recession fears intensify as energy costs cascade through supply chains. This scenario is most likely if Iran successfully deploys sea mines across the shipping lanes, which US minesweeping operations would take weeks to clear.
3
Ceasefire or diplomatic deal halts attacks; shipping resumes within days
Discussed by: European foreign ministers, UN Security Council discussions, and Gulf Cooperation Council mediators. China, as the largest buyer of Gulf oil, has a direct interest in brokering a halt.
International pressure, particularly from oil-importing nations facing economic damage, produces a ceasefire or narrow agreement covering maritime traffic. Iran, having demonstrated its ability to close the strait, extracts concessions in exchange for reopening it. Shipping resumes gradually as insurers reinstate coverage. This scenario becomes more plausible if Iran's conventional military capacity is degraded enough that continued attacks become unsustainable, or if regime survival calculations shift under new leadership following Khamenei's death.
4
Attacks spread to Gulf state ports and energy infrastructure, widening the war
Discussed by: Flashpoint intelligence assessments, CSIS analysis, and Pentagon briefings. The Sonangol Namibe attack deep inside the Gulf already signals geographic expansion.
Iran escalates beyond targeting ships in transit, striking port facilities, oil terminals, and desalination plants in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The conflict widens from a maritime chokepoint dispute into a broader regional infrastructure war. Gulf states, initially bystanders, are drawn into direct confrontation. Energy markets enter crisis as not just transit but production capacity comes under threat. The northward creep of attacks, from the Strait of Hormuz to waters off Kuwait, suggests this escalation pathway is already underway.
5
Multinational coalition launches convoy escorts and minesweeping with US leadership
Discussed by: Joint statement from seven allies (UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, Canada) on March 19; maritime analysts comparing to Operation Earnest Will.
Building on US DFC insurance and Navy escorts, allies contribute naval assets for joint convoys and mine-clearing, partially restoring traffic. IRGC targets coalition ships, risking wider naval battle, but overwhelms asymmetric threats. Oil prices ease if throughput resumes 50%+ of normal.
6
Multinational coalition forms for Hormuz patrols; traffic resumes under allied protection
Discussed by: Joint statement from UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, Canada; USNI and maritime analysts.
Seven allies declare readiness to support reopening the strait, potentially expanding US Navy escorts into a coalition similar to Operation Prosperity Guardian but focused on Hormuz. With DFC insurance and multinational warships, tankers resume limited transits. Success hinges on minesweeping capacity and deterring IRGC attacks amid recent US sinking of 60+ vessels.
Historical Context
Iran-Iraq Tanker War and Operation Earnest Will (1981-1988)
1981-1988
What Happened
During the Iran-Iraq War, both sides attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf to choke off each other's oil exports. Over seven years, 411 ships were attacked, 239 of them oil tankers, killing more than 400 civilian sailors. Iraq used fighter jets armed with Exocet missiles; Iran deployed small boats and naval mines.
Outcome
Short Term
In 1987, the Reagan administration reflagged 11 Kuwaiti tankers as US vessels and deployed over 30 warships to escort convoys under Operation Earnest Will. On the first escort mission, the tanker MV Bridgeton struck an Iranian mine.
Long Term
The operation succeeded in keeping oil flowing despite Iranian attacks, but at the cost of the USS Samuel B. Roberts striking a mine and the US Navy accidentally shooting down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians. The precedent of US Navy convoy escorts is now directly informing the Trump administration's response.
Why It's Relevant Today
Trump's March 3 announcement of Navy escorts and government-backed insurance directly mirrors Reagan's 1987 playbook. The 1980s tanker war also demonstrated that even a major naval presence cannot fully prevent mine attacks and small-boat harassment in the Gulf's confined waters.
Gulf of Oman tanker attacks (2019)
May-June 2019
What Happened
Six commercial vessels were damaged in two separate incidents near the Strait of Hormuz in May and June 2019. The US attributed the attacks to Iran, pointing to video footage appearing to show IRGC personnel removing an unexploded limpet mine from the hull of the Japanese-owned tanker Kokuka Courageous. Iran denied responsibility.
Outcome
Short Term
Oil prices spiked temporarily and war-risk insurance premiums rose, but shipping continued through the strait. The US formed the International Maritime Security Construct, a multinational naval patrol coalition.
Long Term
The attacks demonstrated Iran's ability to threaten Gulf shipping through deniable asymmetric tactics without triggering a major military response. They established a template for exactly the kind of escalation now playing out at a far larger scale.
Why It's Relevant Today
The 2019 attacks were probing operations: small-scale, deniable, and designed to demonstrate capability without crossing a threshold for military response. The current wave of attacks has abandoned deniability entirely, with the IRGC openly claiming control of the strait. The shift illustrates how a full-scale military confrontation has removed Iran's incentive for restraint.
Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks (2023-2025)
November 2023 - 2025
What Happened
Yemen's Houthi forces, an Iranian-backed group, launched over 100 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden using missiles, drones, and explosive boats. The attacks forced major shipping lines to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and significant costs to Asia-Europe trade routes.
Outcome
Short Term
A US-led naval coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian, failed to stop the attacks. Container shipping rates between Asia and Europe tripled at their peak. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transit climbed to historic levels.
Long Term
The Houthi campaign proved that a militarily modest force could disrupt global shipping lanes for an extended period despite the presence of advanced naval forces. Insurance markets, not military escorts, became the binding constraint on commercial shipping.
Why It's Relevant Today
The Red Sea precedent showed how insurance withdrawal, more than physical danger, can shut down a shipping lane. The same dynamic is now playing out in the Persian Gulf at far greater economic consequence. The Houthi attacks also demonstrated that drone boats and missiles can overwhelm naval defenses when launched from multiple vectors, a lesson the IRGC appears to be applying.
