Persian Gulf shipping under attack as US-Iran war spreads to commercial tankers

Overview

On May 10, Trump called Iran's MOU counteroffer 'garbage' and declared the ceasefire on 'life support.' Three weeks later, negotiators reached a tentative memorandum of understanding: Iran would freeze enrichment and hand over its 440 kg stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium; the US would lift sanctions and release frozen assets; the Strait would formally reopen within 30 days of signing.

Trump lifted the US naval blockade on May 29 — after 46 days and 115 vessels turned away — without a signed deal in hand. The Strait now has two parallel lanes: a US-guided corridor that moved roughly 70 ships in three weeks, and an IRGC route through Iranian waters where Tehran charges fees and boards vessels. Fighting hasn't stopped — Iran struck the MSC Panaya container ship on June 3; on June 6, US forces downed four Iranian drones and hit radar sites at Goruk and Qeshm.

Why it matters

A tentative deal could reopen the Strait and ease $94/bbl oil — but 20,000+ seafarers remain stranded and Iranian drone strikes continue daily.

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Key Indicators

~8% of normal

Daily Strait of Hormuz transits

The US-guided corridor has moved roughly 70 ships in and out of the Gulf over three weeks. Iran's IRGC-controlled lane through its own territorial waters handles additional traffic. Combined, this is still far below the pre-war 138 vessels per day.

20,000+

Stranded seafarers

Crew members remain trapped aboard vessels inside the Gulf. The Strait has not formally reopened and no mass evacuation has occurred despite limited transits through the US corridor.

~200

Tankers trapped in the Gulf

VLCCs are idling with millions of barrels. Some have exited via the US-guided corridor, but the IRGC's formal Strait closure continues to block most traffic.

~$94/bbl

Brent crude price

Fell from the conflict's peak of ~$114/bbl as the tentative MOU advanced negotiations. Goldman Sachs projects prices will average above $100/bbl if the Strait remains mostly shut for another month.

45+

Vessel and port incidents reported

UANI confirmed 45 maritime incidents involving commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure as of June 5, including the MSC Panaya attack on June 3 and the Goruk and Qeshm radar strikes on June 6.

Lifted May 29

US naval blockade of Iran

CENTCOM's blockade ran April 13 to May 29 (46 days), turning away 115 vessels. Trump lifted it ahead of a tentative MOU, before either side formally signed.

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People Involved

Alireza Tangsiri

Directing IRGC naval operations in Persian Gulf

Donald Trump

Lifted naval blockade May 29; tentative MOU reached but unsigned as of June 6; ceasefire technically in effect despite ongoing IRGC attacks and US counter-strikes

Abbas Araghchi

Iran's lead negotiator; tentative MOU reached May 28 pending both Trump's and Iran's supreme leader's formal approval

Organizations Involved

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy

Military Force

Continuing attacks under nominal ceasefire; struck MSC Panaya container ship June 3; claimed missile and drone strikes on US Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait — US military said all attacks on American forces failed

Iran's parallel naval force specializing in asymmetric warfare, operating thousands of fast boats and drone vessels in the Persian Gulf independently from the conventional Iranian navy.

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)

Maritime Security Advisory Body

45 confirmed maritime incidents as of June 5, 2026; continues issuing advisories for vessels in the region

The UK Royal Navy's primary point of contact for merchant vessels operating in the region, issuing real-time security alerts and coordinating responses to maritime incidents.

Sonangol

State-Owned Oil Company

Owner of the attacked vessel

Angola's state oil company and owner of the Sonangol Namibe tanker, which operates in a pool managed by Sweden-based Stena Bulk.

Timeline

February 2026 June 2026

36 events Latest: June 3rd, 2026 · 2 months ago Showing 8 of 36

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June 2026
IRGC strikes MSC Panaya; claims missile and drone hits on US Fifth Fleet and Kuwait base — US denies all succeeded
Latest Military

The IRGC struck the Liberian-flagged container ship MSC Panaya in the Strait, saying it was retaliation for a US strike on the Iranian tanker Lexie. Iran also claimed missile and drone attacks on the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait; US Central Command said all attacks on American forces failed.
June 3rd, 2026
Strait splits into parallel US-guided and IRGC-controlled shipping lanes
Economic

US Central Command guided roughly 70 ships through the Gulf in three weeks via a corridor that avoids Iranian coastal waters. Iran's IRGC separately published an 'alternative route' map routing ships through Iranian territorial waters past Larak Island, where Iranian naval forces can board and inspect cargoes.
June 1st, 2026
May 2026
Trump lifts US naval blockade of Iran; Brent crude drops ~20% from conflict peak
Military

Trump announced on Truth Social that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports was over, 46 days after it began. CENTCOM had turned away 115 commercial vessels. Trump then held a Situation Room session but ended it without announcing a final decision on the broader MOU. Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping roughly 20% from the conflict peak.
May 29th, 2026
US and Iran reach tentative MOU; Trump and Iranian supreme leader yet to sign
Diplomatic

Negotiators agreed on a tentative memorandum: Iran would halt enrichment and hand over its 440 kg of 60%-enriched uranium; the US would lift sanctions and release frozen assets; the Strait would formally reopen within 30 days of signing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the deal hinged entirely on Trump's decision, and Iran's supreme leader had not yet confirmed.
May 28th, 2026
Trump says Iran deal 'largely negotiated,' to be announced soon
Diplomatic

Trump told reporters an MOU with Iran was close to finalized and would be announced soon, reversing his 'life support' tone from two weeks earlier. Axios published deal details including terms on enriched uranium, sanctions, and Strait access.
May 23rd, 2026
UK deploys HMS Dragon toward Middle East for potential Hormuz escort mission
Military

The Royal Navy Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon sailed toward the region to position for a future multinational Hormuz escort mission; the UK also began preparing mine-clearing divers for potential strait operations.
May 11th, 2026
Trump calls Iran's MOU counteroffer 'garbage'; declares ceasefire on 'life support'
Diplomatic

Trump said he didn't finish reading Iran's proposal, calling it 'a piece of garbage.' Iran had demanded an end to all fighting, lifting of oil sanctions, and release of frozen assets — without the nuclear concessions the US required.
May 10th, 2026
US warplanes disable two Iranian tankers breaching blockade; 14-point peace deal disclosed
Military

A US Navy warplane fired into the smokestacks of Iranian tankers M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, disabling both after they tried to breach the blockade. Separately, US officials said both sides were close to a 14-point memorandum of understanding that would end the war, lift blockades, and commit Iran to a nuclear enrichment moratorium.
May 8th, 2026
US and Iran exchange direct fire in Strait; CENTCOM strikes Qeshm and Bandar Abbas
Military

Iranian forces attacked USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason with missiles, drones, and fast boats as the three destroyers transited the Strait. CENTCOM intercepted all threats and struck Iranian military sites at Qeshm and Bandar Abbas, including missile launch pads, command posts, and surveillance nodes; both sides accused the other of firing first.
May 7th, 2026
Project Freedom suspended after 48 hours; just two ships guided through Hormuz
Military

The US military paused Operation Project Freedom after only two commercial vessels transited Hormuz under escort, including one Maersk subsidiary ship. Trump said the US would no longer guide ships through the Strait while Iran's blockade remained.
May 5th, 2026
Iran strikes UAE oil infrastructure; US launches Project Freedom and sinks Iranian boats
Escalation

Iran fired 15 missiles and drones at the UAE, setting the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone ablaze and injuring three. The US countered with Operation Project Freedom — an air-and-naval escort corridor through Hormuz using Apache and Seahawk helicopters and F-35s — and sank six Iranian fast boats that attacked US-protected ships.
May 4th, 2026
April 2026
Iran closes Strait again; IRGC fires on two Indian tankers holding valid clearance
Escalation

One day after briefly declaring the Strait open, Iran formally closed it in response to the US blockade. IRGC gunboats fired without warning on the Indian-flagged VLCC Sanmar Herald — carrying 1.8 million barrels of Iraqi crude — and the Jag Arnav despite both ships holding Iranian transit permission; both turned back. India summoned Iran's ambassador.
April 18th, 2026
US naval blockade of Iran takes effect after Islamabad Talks collapse
Military

After US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 ended without agreement, CENTCOM began a naval blockade of the entire Iranian coastline at 10 AM ET, commanded by Admiral Brad Cooper and enforced by over 10,000 personnel and more than 12 warships. Six commercial ships complied and turned back in the first 24 hours.
April 13th, 2026
Qatar resumes full maritime navigation after weeks of Iran conflict disruption
De-escalation

Qatar's Ministry of Transport announced full resumption of maritime navigation for all vessel types in Qatari waters starting April 12, 6:00 AM to 6:00 PM, with fishing unrestricted 24/7. Ends export paralysis from Iranian attacks and Hormuz closure.
April 12th, 2026
Iran demands $1 million tolls per ship instead of reopening Strait
Escalation

Rather than free passage, Iran began controlling traffic and charging tolls above $1 million per vessel, gutting the ceasefire's core term. By April 9 shipping had not resumed.
April 8th, 2026
Pakistan brokers Iran-US ceasefire; Hormuz to reopen under deal
Diplomatic

Trump announced a two-week ceasefire based on talks with Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, with Iran committing to open the Strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran's acceptance hours later.
April 7th, 2026
Iranian missile strikes oil tanker off Qatar amid three-wave attack on Israel
Attack

One of three Iranian missiles hit an oil tanker off Qatar's coast with no injuries reported, as IRGC launched waves at Israel. Incident extends shipping attack zone eastward into central Gulf.
April 1st, 2026
March 2026
Iranian drone strikes Kuwaiti oil tanker at Dubai port, fire contained
Attack

The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reported that the oil tanker Al Salmi was struck by an Iranian drone while docked at a port in Dubai, causing a fire and damage to the vessel. Dubai authorities confirmed the fire was contained within hours and stated there was no oil leakage from the loaded tanker, marking escalation to Gulf state port infrastructure.
March 31st, 2026
Iranian Drone Strike on Oman's Salalah Port Forces Maersk to Suspend Operations
Attack

Two drones struck the Port of Salalah in Oman, damaging a terminal crane and injuring one port worker. Maersk evacuated the facility and suspended operations for 48 hours. Iran claimed targeting a US Navy vessel but later denied civilian damage, marking escalation to Arabian Sea ports.
March 28th, 2026
Seven allies declare readiness to contribute to reopening Strait of Hormuz
Diplomatic

UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, and Canada condemned Iran and stated readiness for efforts to ensure safe passage, calling for end to attacks and compliance with UNSC Resolution 2817.
March 19th, 2026
Minimal transits persist with just three cargo vessels exiting Gulf
Economic

Only three cargo vessels reported transiting eastbound out of Persian Gulf on March 16-17 amid ongoing disruptions.
March 17th, 2026
Iranian attacks on civilian vessels continue per ISW mapping
Attack

Institute for the Study of War mapped ongoing Iranian strikes against commercial shipping in Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as of March 12.
March 12th, 2026
IRGC USVs and drones strike three vessels including MAYUREE NAREE; US sinks 60+ Iranian ships
Attack

Iranian media showed USV impact on Thai-flagged MAYUREE NAREE in Strait of Hormuz, causing fire and most crew evacuation; drone struck cargo ship in strait and bulk carrier off Dubai, no casualties. CENTCOM sank over 60 Iranian ships including all four IRGC Soleimani Class warships.
March 11th, 2026
Three vessel attacks including USV strike on MAYUREE NAREE; US sinks 60+ Iranian ships and all IRGC Soleimani warships
Attack

Iranian USV hit Thai-flagged MAYUREE NAREE in Strait of Hormuz causing fire and evacuation; drone struck cargo ship in strait and bulk carrier off Dubai. CENTCOM sank over 60 Iranian vessels including all four IRGC Soleimani Class warships.
March 11th, 2026
US destroys 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels; three cargo ships struck in Strait of Hormuz
Military

US Central Command struck 16 Iranian minelayers near the strait to prevent blockages; Iranian forces hit three commercial cargo vessels same day. UKMTO reports total 17 incidents since war began.
March 10th, 2026
US Navy successfully escorts oil tanker through Strait of Hormuz
Military

First US Navy-escorted transit completed successfully amid ongoing IRGC threats; no further convoys announced.
March 10th, 2026
Brent crude spikes above $116/bbl before pulling back
Economic

Oil prices hit multi-year highs amid strait closure fears, falling to $92/bbl on March 10 as markets react to US mine strikes.
March 9th, 2026
International Maritime Organisation warns of humanitarian crisis
Humanitarian

The IMO warned that 20,000 seafarers and 15,000 cruise passengers were stranded in the Persian Gulf, with crew members unable to be evacuated from vessels trapped in a war zone.
March 6th, 2026
Drone boat strikes Sonangol Namibe tanker off Kuwait, causing oil spill
Attack

An explosive-laden drone boat detonated against the port side of the Bahamas-flagged Suezmax tanker Sonangol Namibe while it sat at anchor 30 nautical miles southeast of Kuwait. The blast breached the hull and caused oil to leak into the water. It was the largest vessel attacked and the northernmost strike since hostilities began, extending the threat zone deep into the Persian Gulf.
March 5th, 2026 • 22:40 local (Mar 4)
IRGC claims complete control of Strait of Hormuz; only five transits recorded
Escalation

The IRGC announced full control of the strait. Satellite tracking data showed just five vessel crossings for the entire day, down from hundreds under normal conditions.
March 4th, 2026
Trump orders government-backed shipping insurance, offers Navy escorts
Policy

President Trump directed the US Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for all maritime trade in the Gulf. He said the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. No convoy had yet sailed by March 5.
March 3rd, 2026
IRGC declares Strait of Hormuz closed, threatens to attack transiting ships
Escalation

A senior IRGC official confirmed the strait was closed and threatened to "set ablaze" any vessel attempting to pass. Tanker traffic dropped approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait. Major shipping lines including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC halted Gulf transits.
March 2nd, 2026
Major insurers cancel war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf
Economic

Leading maritime war-risk underwriters withdrew coverage for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf. Premiums that had already risen from 0.125% to 0.4% of insured hull value became unavailable entirely. Without insurance, shipping companies cannot legally operate.
March 2nd, 2026
First tanker attacks hit three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz
Attack

The Palau-flagged tanker Skylight was struck 5 nautical miles off Oman, injuring four crew. The crude carrier MKD Vyom took a projectile hit that caused an engine room fire and killed one crew member. A third vessel, the Sea La Donna, also reported an incident.
March 1st, 2026
February 2026
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
Military

Coordinated airstrikes hit Iranian military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership targets across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and other cities. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed.
February 28th, 2026 • 02:30 EST
Iran retaliates with missiles and drones across the region
Military

Iran launched Operation True Promise IV, firing missiles and drones at US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as at targets in Israel. The IRGC warned all vessels against transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
February 28th, 2026

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Historical Context

3 moments from history that rhyme with this story — and how they unfolded.

1981-1988

Iran-Iraq Tanker War and Operation Earnest Will (1981-1988)

During the Iran-Iraq War, both sides attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf to choke off each other's oil exports. Over seven years, 411 ships were attacked, 239 of them oil tankers, killing more than 400 civilian sailors. Iraq used fighter jets armed with Exocet missiles; Iran deployed small boats and naval mines.

Then

In 1987, the Reagan administration reflagged 11 Kuwaiti tankers as US vessels and deployed over 30 warships to escort convoys under Operation Earnest Will. On the first escort mission, the tanker MV Bridgeton struck an Iranian mine.

Now

The operation succeeded in keeping oil flowing despite Iranian attacks, but at the cost of the USS Samuel B. Roberts striking a mine and the US Navy accidentally shooting down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians. The precedent of US Navy convoy escorts is now directly informing the Trump administration's response.

Why this matters now

Trump's March 3 announcement of Navy escorts and government-backed insurance directly mirrors Reagan's 1987 playbook. The 1980s tanker war also demonstrated that even a major naval presence cannot fully prevent mine attacks and small-boat harassment in the Gulf's confined waters.

May-June 2019

Gulf of Oman tanker attacks (2019)

Six commercial vessels were damaged in two separate incidents near the Strait of Hormuz in May and June 2019. The US attributed the attacks to Iran, pointing to video footage appearing to show IRGC personnel removing an unexploded limpet mine from the hull of the Japanese-owned tanker Kokuka Courageous. Iran denied responsibility.

Then

Oil prices spiked temporarily and war-risk insurance premiums rose, but shipping continued through the strait. The US formed the International Maritime Security Construct, a multinational naval patrol coalition.

Now

The attacks demonstrated Iran's ability to threaten Gulf shipping through deniable asymmetric tactics without triggering a major military response. They established a template for exactly the kind of escalation now playing out at a far larger scale.

Why this matters now

The 2019 attacks were probing operations: small-scale, deniable, and designed to demonstrate capability without crossing a threshold for military response. The current wave of attacks has abandoned deniability entirely, with the IRGC openly claiming control of the strait. The shift illustrates how a full-scale military confrontation has removed Iran's incentive for restraint.

November 2023 - 2025

Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks (2023-2025)

Yemen's Houthi forces, an Iranian-backed group, launched over 100 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden using missiles, drones, and explosive boats. The attacks forced major shipping lines to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and significant costs to Asia-Europe trade routes.

Then

A US-led naval coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian, failed to stop the attacks. Container shipping rates between Asia and Europe tripled at their peak. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transit climbed to historic levels.

Now

The Houthi campaign proved that a militarily modest force could disrupt global shipping lanes for an extended period despite the presence of advanced naval forces. Insurance markets, not military escorts, became the binding constraint on commercial shipping.

Why this matters now

The Red Sea precedent showed how insurance withdrawal, more than physical danger, can shut down a shipping lane. The same dynamic is now playing out in the Persian Gulf at far greater economic consequence. The Houthi attacks also demonstrated that drone boats and missiles can overwhelm naval defenses when launched from multiple vectors, a lesson the IRGC appears to be applying.