Western powers and Japan pledge to secure the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shuts the world's most important oil chokepoint

Overview

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shut the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026 after the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes against Iran. The closure choked off roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply, sent Brent crude above $126 a barrel, and cut tanker traffic through the strait by about 70 percent. Now a coalition of more than two dozen countries — led by the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan — has pledged to help reopen the passage, while the U.S. has begun an aerial campaign to force the issue militarily.

Why it matters

Twenty percent of global oil and food for 100 million people flow through a strait that Iran currently controls and no coalition has yet reopened.

In This Story

3 Videos

5 People

U.S. aerial campaign breaks IRGC grip, coalition deploys under ceasefire

3 Context

Operation Earnest Will — the 'Tanker War' (1987-1988)

Key Indicators

~20M

Barrels of oil per day normally transiting the strait

Roughly 34% of global seaborne crude oil trade passes through Hormuz — making it the world's most important energy chokepoint.

70%

Drop in tanker traffic since closure

Over 150 ships have anchored outside the strait rather than risk passage under IRGC threats.

$126

Peak Brent crude price per barrel

Oil prices surged from pre-crisis levels past $100 on March 8 and peaked at $126 — the highest in years.

28+

Countries that have pledged support

Including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, South Korea, and multiple smaller European states — though all attach ceasefire conditions.

Allied warships currently operating in the strait

Despite pledges, no coalition partner has deployed naval assets — all are waiting for a ceasefire that does not yet exist.

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People Involved

Bart De Wever

Navigating coalition divisions over Hormuz participation

Boris Pistorius

Conditioning German participation on ceasefire and international mandate

Kaja Kallas

Failed to build consensus for extending existing EU naval mandate

Keir Starmer

Leading coalition diplomacy while distancing from NATO framing

Guido Crosetto

Supporting participation with explicit non-combat conditions

Organizations Involved

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

Military Organization

Currently enforcing closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's elite military branch, operating independently from the regular armed forces, which has claimed complete control of the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026.

European Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz (EMASoH)

Multinational Maritime Initiative

Existing European framework for Hormuz operations, potential basis for expanded mission

A European-led maritime awareness initiative in the Strait of Hormuz, launched in 2020 with nine participating nations including Belgium, operating both diplomatic and military tracks.

Operation Aspides

EU Naval Operation

Active in Red Sea; proposal to extend mandate to Hormuz rejected

The EU's defensive naval operation protecting commercial vessels from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, whose mandate technically covers Hormuz monitoring but whose expansion to active Hormuz operations was rejected by EU foreign ministers.

Timeline

Belgium conditionally commits to Hormuz mission
Diplomatic

Belgium's core Cabinet agreed to participate in securing the strait, but only after a lasting ceasefire and within a clear international legal framework. The government also disclosed military support appeals from Oman, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Today
28-nation joint statement pledges readiness to secure passage
Diplomatic

The UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan, and more than 20 additional countries issued a joint statement expressing readiness to contribute to safe passage through the strait — but conditioned on a ceasefire and international mandate.
2 days ago
U.S. begins aerial campaign to reopen the strait
Military

The United States launched an aerial campaign targeting Iranian military positions controlling the strait, escalating from economic pressure to direct military action to force the passage open.
2 days ago
Trump reverses, then calls NATO 'cowards'
Diplomatic

After allies rejected his demands, Trump briefly said the U.S. didn't need help, then called NATO members "cowards" for refusing to contribute.
4 days ago
EU foreign ministers reject Hormuz military involvement
Diplomatic

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas reported "no appetite" among EU foreign ministers to extend Operation Aspides' mandate to Hormuz. Multiple European governments declared the Iran conflict was not their war.
5 days ago
Trump demands NATO allies send warships
Diplomatic

President Trump called on NATO allies to contribute naval forces to reopen the strait, warning it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if they refused.
6 days ago
Oil prices surge past $100 per barrel
Economic

Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time in four years, eventually peaking at $126, as the strait closure removed roughly a fifth of global oil supply from the market.
March 8th, 2026
IRGC claims 'complete control' of the strait
Military

Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced they had established complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic dropped roughly 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the passage.
March 4th, 2026
IRGC officially declares Strait of Hormuz closed
Military

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed the strait was closed to all shipping and threatened to set fire to any vessels attempting passage.
March 2nd, 2026
U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran trigger strait closure
Military

Joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes hit targets across Iran, including a strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's IRGC responded by beginning to block commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
February 28th, 2026

Scenarios

U.S. aerial campaign breaks IRGC grip, coalition deploys under ceasefire

Discussed by: Defense Intelligence Agency assessments and Western military analysts

The U.S. aerial campaign degrades IRGC naval capabilities enough to force a de facto ceasefire. Iran, facing mounting military losses and potential internal pressure, agrees to stop blocking the strait. The multinational coalition then deploys under an international mandate — possibly a United Nations Security Council resolution or an expanded EMASoH framework — to escort commercial vessels and maintain freedom of navigation. Oil prices decline but remain elevated as trust rebuilds slowly.

Prolonged standoff: strait remains contested for months

Discussed by: Defense Intelligence Agency (estimated 1-6 month closure), energy market analysts

Iran absorbs U.S. airstrikes but maintains enough asymmetric capability — mines, fast boats, shore-based anti-ship missiles — to keep the strait functionally closed or too dangerous for unescorted commercial traffic. The multinational coalition never deploys because the ceasefire condition is never met. Oil prices stabilize above $100 as alternative pipeline capacity (Saudi Arabia and UAE have 3.5-5.5 million barrels per day of bypass capacity) partially compensates. Global supply chains adapt to sustained disruption.

Coalition fractures, U.S. acts unilaterally to force strait open

Discussed by: Analysts at Xinhua, Middle East Eye, and European security commentators

Allied conditions prove impossible to satisfy — no ceasefire materializes, no international mandate emerges. The coalition dissolves into rhetorical support without operational substance. The U.S. escalates unilaterally, deploying naval forces to escort tankers through the strait without allied participation. This succeeds operationally but deepens the transatlantic rift, with European allies facing accusations of free-riding on American military power to secure their own energy supply.

Diplomatic breakthrough: Iran agrees to reopen strait in exchange for de-escalation

Discussed by: European diplomatic sources, EU foreign ministers advocating for moratorium on attacks

A diplomatic track — possibly mediated by Oman, which has historically served as a backchannel between Iran and the West — produces an agreement where Iran reopens the strait in exchange for a halt to strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure and oil facilities. The European Council's call for a "comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure" becomes the basis for negotiations. The multinational coalition then deploys as a confidence-building measure.

Historical Context

Operation Earnest Will — the 'Tanker War' (1987-1988)

July 1987 - September 1988

What Happened

During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran attacked Kuwaiti oil tankers to punish Kuwait for backing Iraq. The U.S. responded by reflagging 11 Kuwaiti tankers under the American flag and escorting them through the Persian Gulf with Navy warships. The operation involved direct clashes with Iranian forces, including the mining of the USS Samuel B. Roberts and the retaliatory destruction of two Iranian oil platforms and multiple naval vessels in Operation Praying Mantis.

Outcome

Short Term

The escort operation kept oil flowing but at significant cost — 37 U.S. sailors died when the USS Stark was struck by Iraqi missiles, and the USS Vincennes accidentally shot down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians.

Long Term

Established the precedent that the U.S. would use military force to maintain freedom of navigation through the strait. The operation demonstrated both the feasibility and the danger of active convoy escort in contested waters.

Why It's Relevant Today

The current coalition faces the same core dilemma: escort operations in the strait carry real military risk, and Iran's asymmetric capabilities make the passage dangerous even for advanced navies. The 1987-88 experience shows that securing the strait requires accepting combat, not just signaling readiness.

2019 Persian Gulf tanker attacks and the formation of Operation Sentinel

May - September 2019

What Happened

Iran's IRGC attacked six commercial tankers with limpet mines near the Strait of Hormuz, shot down a U.S. surveillance drone, and seized the British-flagged Stena Impero. The attacks followed the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposition of sanctions. The U.S. formed Operation Sentinel, a multinational patrol mission, while France separately proposed what became EMASoH — a European alternative that allowed allies to participate without joining a U.S.-led force.

Outcome

Short Term

Attacks stopped after a few months, but revealed how easily Iran could disrupt strait traffic with deniable, low-cost operations.

Long Term

Created the two parallel security frameworks — one American, one European — that now form the institutional backdrop for the 2026 coalition. Belgium joined EMASoH, which is why its current "conditional commitment" builds on an existing relationship rather than starting from scratch.

Why It's Relevant Today

The 2019 episode showed that European nations insist on operating independently from U.S. command structures in the Gulf. That same instinct — participate in security, but not under American direction — is driving the current coalition's conditions. The institutional split between Operation Sentinel and EMASoH persists.

Suez Crisis multinational force (1956-1967)

November 1956 - June 1967

What Happened

After Britain, France, and Israel invaded Egypt over Gamal Abdel Nasser's nationalization of the Suez Canal, the United Nations deployed its first peacekeeping force — the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF) — to secure the canal zone and enable withdrawal. The force required Cold War-era diplomatic negotiations and a United Nations mandate, and took weeks to assemble despite the immediate economic urgency of reopening the canal.

Outcome

Short Term

UNEF allowed the canal to reopen and the invading forces to withdraw while saving face. But the force was deployed only after the fighting stopped — not during it.

Long Term

Set the lasting precedent that international forces secure waterways after conflict, not during it. The requirement for a ceasefire before deployment became standard practice.

Why It's Relevant Today

The current coalition's insistence on a ceasefire before deployment echoes Suez precisely. International maritime security forces have historically arrived after the shooting stops — which means the strait may remain closed until the U.S. and Iran reach some form of cessation, regardless of how many countries sign pledges.