Overview
San Francisco is the kind of city that feels unstoppable—until the lights go out. On Saturday, a substation fire near 8th and Mission helped trigger a blackout that spread across neighborhoods, turned intersections into guesswork, and pushed daily life into slow-motion. Full restoration took until Tuesday morning—more than two days—sparking political backlash and raising basic questions about whether a modern city can tolerate single-point failures in critical infrastructure.
The hook isn't just the outage count. It's that this specific substation has a history, including a strikingly similar fire on the same calendar day in 2003—an echo that raises a brutal question: was this an unpredictable accident, or a repeat of risks everyone already knew were there? PG&E completed maintenance in October and inspections in early December, yet the cause remains under investigation, while the company has set aside $50 million in customer compensation and faced withering criticism from City Hall.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
PG&E runs the wires San Francisco can’t live without—and absorbs the blame when they fail.
DEM is the city’s switchboard for crisis coordination when normal systems stop working.
SFFD fought a dangerous infrastructure fire inside a critical node of the city’s power system.
CPUC is the referee that can turn utility failure into penalties, mandates, and forced investments.
Waymo’s robotaxis turned a power outage into a visible test of autonomy under degraded infrastructure.
Exponent is the third-party investigator tasked with determining what failed and why.
Timeline
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Waymo announces software updates after acknowledged failures
OperationalCompany admitted scale of outage overwhelmed coordination system; updated fleet to handle regional power failures more decisively.
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Full power restoration completed for all SF customers
UpdateFinal 3,800 customers reconnected, ending outage that lasted more than two days for some.
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PG&E hires Exponent for independent investigation
InvestigationBay Area engineering firm brought in to determine root cause; damage severity complicates analysis.
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PG&E announces $50M compensation fund and automatic credits
CorporateUtility pledged $200 residential/$2,500 business credits plus claims process for spoilage, wages, losses.
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Mayor Lurie calls prolonged outage 'unacceptable'
StatementLurie demanded answers from PG&E, citing City Hall's two-day blackout and 'extremely frustrated' residents.
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Waymo resumes service after overnight suspension
OperationalWaymo restarted ride-hailing after pulling robotaxis when traffic-signal outages overwhelmed fleet coordination.
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Fire fully extinguished at Mission substation
IncidentSFFD fully suppressed the blaze, allowing investigators to enter and begin cause determination.
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No clear restoration ETA as repairs remain complex
UpdatePG&E said it couldn’t provide a precise timeframe for full restoration.
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Most power restored, tens of thousands still out
UpdatePG&E restored about 110,000 accounts; roughly 21,000 remained without service.
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Waymo pauses robotaxi service as signals fail
OperationalWaymo suspended ride-hailing after vehicles appeared stalled at dark intersections.
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PG&E says about 130,000 accounts affected
StatementPG&E reported a large outage and said it was coordinating with city responders.
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Fire breaks out at Mission substation
IncidentA fire at 8th and Mission damaged equipment and complicated restoration work.
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Outages begin and spread across neighborhoods
IncidentReports showed power cuts starting mid-morning and expanding through the day.
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PG&E reshuffles leadership around “better service”
CorporatePG&E announced an organizational overhaul effective January 1, 2026.
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Earlier December outage shows a city already on edge
IncidentHunters Point equipment failure cut power to 22,500+ customers, then restored.
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Holiday-season blackout hits 120,000+ in a near-repeat
HistoricalA Mission substation fire caused major outages and later drew CPUC sanctions.
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Earlier Mission substation fire becomes a warning that didn’t stick
HistoricalRecords later cited a similar fire at the same substation in 1996.
Scenarios
PG&E Restores Everyone, Calls It an Isolated Failure
Discussed by: PG&E statements; wire-service coverage and local reporting focused on restoration progress
Service fully returns within days, investigators attribute the event to a contained equipment failure, and the story fades into the city’s holiday rearview mirror. PG&E emphasizes complexity and safety checks, and regulators accept corrective actions without a major enforcement escalation—unless evidence surfaces of missed maintenance or ignored internal warnings.
Regulators Reopen the Mission Substation’s Past—and Force a Retrofit
Discussed by: Investigative reporting highlighting the 1996/2003 fires; likely CPUC and city scrutiny if similarities emerge
If investigators find preventable causes, delayed notification problems, or failure to implement known fixes, the CPUC and city leaders push for enforceable commitments: accelerated substation modernization, stronger redundancy, and penalties or mandated spending tied directly to San Francisco reliability. The “same day as 2003” coincidence becomes political fuel.
San Francisco Builds Around PG&E: Backup Power for Signals, Transit, and Critical Corridors
Discussed by: City resilience advocates; transportation agencies reacting to signal and operations failures; autonomy-industry safety discussions
The outage reframes resilience as an urban-systems problem, not just a utility problem. The city prioritizes hardened intersections, backup power for traffic control and key transit nodes, and formal protocols for autonomous fleets during infrastructure degradation. This doesn’t replace PG&E, but it reduces the city’s single-point-of-failure exposure.
Investigation Finds Preventable Maintenance Lapses—Enforcement Escalates
Discussed by: Mayor Lurie's public criticism; potential CPUC review given substation's repeat-failure history
If Exponent or SFFD investigators identify failures to implement known fixes or missed warning signs despite October maintenance and December inspections, the CPUC could impose penalties beyond the $50M voluntary compensation—especially given the 2003 precedent. Mayor Lurie's 'unacceptable' framing signals city pressure for enforceable commitments, not just bill credits.
Historical Context
Mission Substation Fire and San Francisco Blackout
2003-12-20What Happened
A fire at the same Mission-area substation knocked out power to more than 120,000 customers during peak holiday season. Subsequent reviews criticized lapses and led to regulatory consequences.
Outcome
Short term: Service was restored, but the incident triggered an official regulatory probe.
Long term: The CPUC imposed consequences tied to substation improvements—now relevant again.
Why It's Relevant
It turns the 2025 outage from bad luck into a test of whether lessons were actually implemented.
Northeast Blackout
2003-08-14 to 2003-08-15What Happened
A cascading grid failure cut electricity to tens of millions across the U.S. and Canada. Major cities saw transit disruptions, traffic chaos, and economic shock in hours.
Outcome
Short term: Power returned over one to two days depending on location.
Long term: Reliability standards, monitoring, and coordination practices intensified across the industry.
Why It's Relevant
It shows how fast urban life breaks when electricity fails—and why redundancy matters.
Manhattan Blackout
2019-07-13What Happened
A failure in Manhattan’s power system caused a large outage that halted transit, darkened streets, and disrupted nightlife. The event highlighted the vulnerability of dense cities to a few critical nodes.
Outcome
Short term: Most power restored within hours; investigations followed.
Long term: Pressure increased for infrastructure upgrades and stronger contingency planning.
Why It's Relevant
San Francisco’s outage is the same genre: one node fails, a city’s rhythm collapses.