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Southern Africa's La Niña Floods Kill 200+ Across Three Nations

Southern Africa's La Niña Floods Kill 200+ Across Three Nations

South Africa Declares National Disaster as Regional Death Toll Climbs

Overview

Torrential rains driven by La Niña have killed more than 200 people across Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe since late December 2025. South Africa declared a national disaster on January 18, 2026, after floods killed at least 31 in Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, destroyed thousands of homes, and washed away roads and bridges—including sections isolating communities from the rest of the country.

The three-country crisis marks the worst regional flooding since Cyclone Idai in 2019. In Mozambique, 103 deaths have been reported alongside a cholera outbreak; Zimbabwe has recorded 70 deaths with the Birchenough Bridge closed due to structural damage. Army helicopters have rescued residents from rooftops and trees, while Kruger National Park evacuated 600 tourists and staff from flooded camps.

Key Indicators

200+
Regional death toll
Confirmed deaths across Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe since late December 2025
$240M
Limpopo damage estimate
Infrastructure damage in Limpopo province alone, with R1.7 billion needed for roads
200,000+
People affected in Mozambique
Thousands of homes damaged, tens of thousands facing evacuation
400mm
Rainfall in one week
Limpopo received over 15 inches of rain in less than seven days

People Involved

Cyril Ramaphosa
Cyril Ramaphosa
President of South Africa (Leading national disaster response)
Phophi Ramathuba
Phophi Ramathuba
Premier of Limpopo Province (Coordinating provincial disaster response)
Velenkosini Hlabisa
Velenkosini Hlabisa
Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Overseeing national disaster coordination)

Organizations Involved

NA
National Disaster Management Centre
Government Agency
Status: Declared national disaster on January 18

South Africa's lead agency for disaster risk management and emergency coordination.

SO
South African National Parks
Government Agency
Status: Evacuated 600 from Kruger National Park

Manages Kruger National Park and other protected areas across South Africa.

World Food Programme (WFP)
World Food Programme (WFP)
UN Agency
Status: Coordinating humanitarian response

UN agency leading food security response across affected southern African nations.

Timeline

  1. South Africa Declares National Disaster

    Government

    National Disaster Management Centre formally declares national disaster, enabling coordinated response across affected provinces.

  2. Minister Hlabisa Visits Mpumalanga

    Government

    COGTA Minister assesses damage to roads and bridges; Mpumalanga government estimates R2.1 billion needed for infrastructure repairs.

  3. Regional Death Toll Exceeds 100

    Casualty Report

    Combined fatalities across Mozambique (103), South Africa (30+), and Zimbabwe (70) surpass 200 as flooding intensifies.

  4. Red Level 10 Alert Issued; Kruger Park Evacuated

    Emergency

    South African Weather Service issues highest alert level. SANParks evacuates 600 tourists and staff from flooded Kruger National Park camps by helicopter.

  5. President Ramaphosa Tours Flood-Stricken Limpopo

    Government

    Ramaphosa visits affected areas, describes damage as 'catastrophic,' and warns against corruption in relief fund distribution.

  6. SANDF Deploys Helicopters for Limpopo Rescues

    Response

    South African National Defence Force begins helicopter operations to rescue residents trapped on rooftops and in trees in northern provinces.

  7. Two Dams Breach in Zimbabwe's Zaka District

    Infrastructure

    Dam failures in Masvingo province destroy bridges and fields. Birchenough Bridge on Save River later closed due to compromised supports.

  8. Satellite Analysis Confirms 870 km² Flooded in Sofala

    Assessment

    UNOSAT satellite imagery shows extensive flooding across Mozambique's Sofala province, with inundated area expanding by 100 km² since late December.

  9. Heavy Rains Begin Across Mozambique

    Weather

    Sustained rainfall affects six Mozambique provinces. Over the following two weeks, 75,000+ people are affected and 21 deaths reported.

  10. La Niña Conditions Emerge

    Climate

    US Climate Prediction Center confirms La Niña formation, raising forecasts for above-normal rainfall across southern Africa through early 2026.

Scenarios

1

Flooding Persists Through February as La Niña Continues

Discussed by: South African Weather Service, Mozambique Meteorological Service

Weather services warn that saturated soils and high river levels maintain elevated flood risk through February. La Niña conditions are expected to persist into early 2026 before weakening. Additional rainfall could trigger renewed flooding in already-damaged areas, particularly in low-lying communities along major river systems. Death tolls and displacement figures could rise substantially.

2

Cholera Outbreak Spreads Across Flood-Affected Areas

Discussed by: Mozambique Institute for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction, WHO

Contaminated wells and boreholes, combined with livestock carcasses in floodwaters, create conditions for waterborne disease outbreaks. Mozambique has already recorded cholera deaths among its flood fatalities. If clean water distribution and sanitation measures fail to reach displaced populations quickly, a regional cholera emergency could compound the flooding crisis.

3

Food Security Crisis Emerges as Crop Losses Mount

Discussed by: World Food Programme, US Famine Early Warning System

With 70,000+ hectares of cropland destroyed in Mozambique alone and seed stocks washed away, the region faces potential food shortages through mid-2026. The WFP has already warned of insufficient stocks and funding. If agricultural recovery is slow and international aid insufficient, millions dependent on subsistence farming could face acute food insecurity.

4

Rains Subside, Recovery and Reconstruction Begin

Discussed by: South African government, regional disaster management agencies

La Niña weakens as forecast, rainfall normalizes by late January or February, and flood waters recede. Governments and international agencies shift focus to reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, with South Africa alone facing over $500 million in repair costs across Limpopo and Mpumalanga. Recovery efforts face scrutiny over corruption concerns raised by President Ramaphosa.

Historical Context

Cyclone Idai (2019)

March 2019

What Happened

Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall on Mozambique's coast on March 14, 2019, bringing sustained winds of 175 km/h and torrential rainfall. The storm devastated Beira, Mozambique's fourth-largest city, before moving inland to affect Zimbabwe and Malawi. Over 1,300 people died across the three countries, with 3 million affected and economic losses exceeding $2 billion.

Outcome

Short Term

Massive international humanitarian response mobilized. Cholera outbreak affected over 6,000 people in Mozambique. Hundreds of thousands displaced into temporary camps.

Long Term

Idai became the deadliest tropical cyclone recorded in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The disaster prompted increased investment in early warning systems and regional disaster coordination, though infrastructure vulnerabilities remain.

Why It's Relevant Today

Like 2019, the current crisis spans Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa simultaneously, overwhelming regional response capacity. The cholera risk emerging now echoes Idai's aftermath. The 2026 floods, while not cyclone-driven, are producing comparable regional impacts.

KwaZulu-Natal Floods (2022)

April 2022

What Happened

A cut-off low-pressure system stalled over South Africa's east coast, dropping over 450mm of rain on KwaZulu-Natal in three days. The floods killed 436 people—South Africa's deadliest on record—destroyed 4,000 homes, and caused R5.6 billion in road damage. Durban's water system was 80% disabled, and 600 schools closed.

Outcome

Short Term

President Ramaphosa declared a national disaster and visited affected areas. Criticism emerged over slow government response and vulnerability of informal settlements built in flood-prone areas.

Long Term

The disaster exposed chronic underinvestment in drainage infrastructure and building standards. Some affected communities remain in temporary housing. The floods became a reference point for climate adaptation discussions in South Africa.

Why It's Relevant Today

The 2026 response mirrors 2022: presidential visit, national disaster declaration, and warnings about corruption in relief funds. Both events highlight how informal settlements and poor infrastructure amplify flood impacts. The 2022 experience shapes current expectations for government accountability.

2000 Mozambique Floods

February-March 2000

What Happened

Five weeks of rain followed by Cyclone Eline caused catastrophic flooding along Mozambique's Limpopo and Save rivers. An estimated 700 people died, 650,000 were displaced, and 140,000 hectares of cropland destroyed. The image of a woman giving birth in a tree during helicopter rescue became internationally iconic.

Outcome

Short Term

International aid totaled $450 million. The disaster prompted the creation of new early warning systems and disaster management institutions in Mozambique.

Long Term

The floods accelerated infrastructure investment in flood-prone areas and established templates for regional disaster response that remain in use today.

Why It's Relevant Today

The current floods again affect the Limpopo basin and share the same La Niña-enhanced rainfall pattern. Helicopter rescues of stranded residents echo the iconic 2000 images. Twenty-six years later, many of the same communities remain vulnerable to the same river systems.

12 Sources:
+6
Bloomberg Washington Post Al Jazeera NBC News The Watchers UN OCHA South African Government Eyewitness News ABC News SA News The Citizen Daily Maverick