On January 1, 2026, nineteen states raised their minimum wages—some by pennies, others by dollars—while Congress let the federal floor sit untouched at $7.25 for the sixteenth straight year. Washington state now leads at $17.13 an hour. Missouri and Nebraska hit $15. Hawaii jumped $2 in one leap. The increases will pump $5 billion into the pockets of 8.3 million workers this year.
For the first time ever, more Americans now live in states guaranteeing at least $15 an hour than in states still using the 2009 federal rate. What started as scattered experiments and a controversial fast-food worker strike in 2012 has become the dominant reality: states decided they couldn't wait for Washington. Automatic inflation indexing—adopted by 20 states plus DC—means these wage floors will keep rising without new legislation. Meanwhile, twenty states, clustered mostly in the South, remain locked at $7.25.
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People Involved
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator, Vermont (Independent) (Lead sponsor of Raise the Wage Act seeking $17 federal minimum by 2030)
Robert C. 'Bobby' Scott
U.S. Representative, Virginia's 3rd District (D) (House lead sponsor of Raise the Wage Act)
Mary Kay Henry
International President, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) (Retired May 20, 2024 after 14 years as SEIU International President)
April Verrett
International President, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) (Elected May 2024, first Black woman to lead SEIU in 103-year history)
Organizations Involved
SE
Service Employees International Union (SEIU)
Labor Union
Status: Under new leadership of April Verrett (first Black president, elected May 2024); continues Fight for $15 campaigns and care worker organizing
Two-million-member union representing service workers who conceived and bankrolled the Fight for $15.
NA
National Restaurant Association
Industry Trade Group
Status: Leading opponent of federal and state minimum wage increases
Lobbying powerhouse representing 500,000 restaurant businesses fighting wage increases and defending the tipped sub-minimum.
EC
Economic Policy Institute (EPI)
Progressive Think Tank
Status: Leading research and advocacy organization supporting wage increases
Left-leaning research group producing studies showing minimum wage hikes boost incomes without killing jobs.
NA
National Employment Law Project (NELP)
Worker Advocacy Organization
Status: Research and policy arm supporting Fight for $15 and state legislation
Legal advocacy group tracking state wage laws and promoting automatic inflation indexing.
Timeline
19 States Raise Minimum Wages, Historic Milestone Reached
Implementation
Arizona to Washington boost wage floors. Washington hits $17.13, Hawaii jumps to $16, Missouri and Nebraska reach $15. First time more Americans live in $15+ states than $7.25 states. 8.3 million workers gain $5B in annual earnings.
Los Angeles $30 Hotel Wage Ordinance Takes Effect
Implementation
LA City Clerk certifies referendum petition failed with insufficient signatures. Ordinance becomes effective, mandating phased increases: $25/hour July 2026, $27.50 July 2027, $30 July 2028, plus $8.35/hour healthcare payment for hotel (60+ rooms) and LAX workers.
Hotel Industry Submits 140,000+ Signatures to Block LA Wage Ordinance
Political
L.A. Alliance for Tourism, Jobs and Progress submits signatures to force June 2026 referendum on $30 hotel minimum wage. Coalition warns of 15,000 job losses. Ultimately fails qualification verification.
Los Angeles Approves $30 Minimum Wage for Hotel and Airport Workers
State Legislation
LA City Council votes 12-3 to pass Citywide Hotel Worker Minimum Wage Ordinance. Applies to hotels with 60+ rooms and LAX businesses. Phased implementation: $22.50 immediately, rising to $30 by July 2028, plus healthcare payment.
Missouri Supreme Court Upholds Proposition A
Legal
State high court rejects business coalition lawsuit challenging minimum wage and sick leave measure. Clears path for January 2026 implementation.
Raise the Wage Act Reintroduced with 2030 Target
Proposal
Sanders and Scott update bill to reach $17 by 2030 instead of 2028, attracting 33 Senate and 142 House co-sponsors. Still no Republican support.
Missouri and Alaska Voters Approve Wage Hikes via Ballot Measures
Ballot Initiative
Missouri's Proposition A (57.6% approval) raises minimum to $15 by 2026 and mandates paid sick leave. Alaska's Measure 1 creates phased increases to $15 by 2027 plus sick leave. Both expand Fight for $15 through direct democracy.
April Verrett Elected First Black President of SEIU
Leadership
3,500 SEIU members at Philadelphia convention elect April Verrett as International President, succeeding Mary Kay Henry. Verrett becomes first Black woman to lead the 103-year-old union representing 2 million workers.
McDonald's Quits National Restaurant Association
Industry Split
Fast-food giant leaves NRA over dispute about tipped minimum wage, signaling fractures in unified business opposition to wage increases.
Sanders Introduces $17 Raise the Wage Act
Proposal
Senator Bernie Sanders and Rep. Bobby Scott launch bill to raise federal floor to $17 by 2028, eliminate tipped sub-minimum. 29 Senate co-sponsors, no GOP support.
Maryland Accelerates to $15
State Legislation
Governor Wes Moore signs Fair Wage Act moving $15 floor from 2025 to January 2024, eliminating employer-size tiers. All workers get same rate.
Senate Blocks $15 Federal Minimum Wage
Legislative Defeat
Democrats fail to include $15/hour by 2025 in Biden's $1.9T stimulus package. Parliamentarian rules it violates reconciliation rules; eight Democrats join GOP to defeat it.
Largest Low-Wage Worker Protest in U.S. History
Labor Action
Tens of thousands strike in 200+ cities. Fast-food workers joined by home care aides, Walmart employees, childcare workers demanding $15.
Global Strike Hits 230 Cities
Labor Action
Fast-food workers on six continents walk out. Days later, SEIU president Mary Kay Henry arrested outside McDonald's headquarters with 100+ protesters.
Fight for $15 Launches in New York City
Labor Action
200 fast-food workers strike demanding $15/hour and union rights. SEIU-funded campaign expands nationwide. Critics call $15 absurd; a decade later, 17 states reach that floor.
Federal Minimum Wage Reaches $7.25
Legislation
Final step of 2007 three-stage increase signed by Bush. Congress hasn't raised it since—longest freeze in history.
Washington State Pioneers Inflation Indexing
Policy Innovation
First state to index minimum wage to consumer prices, creating automatic annual adjustments without new legislation. Model spreads to 19 other states.
Minimum Wage Hits Inflation-Adjusted Peak
Historical
$1.60/hour equals $11.53 in 2019 dollars—the highest purchasing power ever. Future increases fail to keep pace with inflation.
FDR Signs Fair Labor Standards Act
Legislation
Roosevelt creates federal minimum wage at 25 cents/hour, rising to 30 cents in 1939. Landmark New Deal law also establishes 40-hour workweek and restricts child labor.
Scenarios
1
$17 Federal Floor Passes by 2030
Discussed by: Economic Policy Institute, progressive Democrats, labor unions
Democrats win unified control in 2024 or 2028 elections and pass Sanders-Scott bill through reconciliation or by eliminating filibuster. Implementation gradual: $10 in year one, stepping up $1.75 annually. Tipped sub-minimum eliminated. CBO projects 27 million workers gain raises; business groups warn of job losses concentrated in rural areas and small firms. Reality likely falls between: modest employment impacts, significant income boost for bottom quintile, accelerated automation in food service.
2
Federal Floor Stays Frozen, State Patchwork Deepens
Discussed by: Most labor economists, National Restaurant Association, political analysts
GOP opposition and Democratic divisions keep Congress gridlocked. Federal $7.25 rate unchanged through 2030s, eroding to $5 in real purchasing power. More blue and purple states adopt indexing; Southern states hold at $7.25. Geographic wage inequality intensifies: McDonald's pays $17 in Seattle, $7.25 in Mississippi for identical work. Migration pressures build. Business groups cite competitive advantage in low-wage states; labor advocates call it a race to the bottom. Eventually, sheer obsolescence of federal rate makes it irrelevant.
3
Regional Federal Minimums by Cost of Living
Discussed by: Centrist economists, some GOP lawmakers, business-labor coalitions
Bipartisan compromise sets federal floors by region: $18 in high-cost metros like SF and NYC, $12 in low-cost rural areas, indexed to local inflation. Models Alaska's geographic differentials. Business groups accept it to pre-empt patchwork local ordinances; labor accepts as best achievable. Implementation requires complex Bureau of Labor Statistics mapping. Solves one-size-fits-all problem but creates administrative burden and weird edge effects at regional boundaries.
4
Universal Basic Income Replaces Minimum Wage Debate
Discussed by: Tech sector futurists, some economists, Andrew Yang wing of politics
AI-driven job displacement and gig economy growth make hourly wage floors obsolete. Pilot programs in multiple states (Alaska dividend model) show UBI provides income floor without employment mandates. By 2030s, coalition of Silicon Valley, labor, and libertarians pushes federal UBI replacing minimum wage, EITC, and welfare programs. Monthly $1,200 payments regardless of employment status. Minimum wage debate fades as fewer workers need traditional wages. Paradigm shift from wage floors to income floors.
Historical Context
1968 Peak and Subsequent Erosion
1968-2009
What Happened
The federal minimum wage hit its highest inflation-adjusted value in 1968 at $1.60/hour ($11.53 in 2019 dollars). Over the next four decades, Congress raised the nominal rate 12 times, but increases never kept pace with productivity growth or inflation. The 1970s required almost annual hikes just to fight inflation's erosion. After 1981, increases became sporadic. By 2009, purchasing power had fallen 30% from the 1968 peak.
Outcome
Short Term
Workers at the bottom saw real wages stagnate while productivity doubled, shifting income to capital.
Long Term
Growing inequality and wage stagnation became defining economic issues, fueling Fight for $15 and populist politics.
Why It's Relevant Today
Shows why states stopped waiting for Congress: federal floor became a joke, lagging purchasing power for half a century.
State Laboratories: Massachusetts and Washington Lead
1998-2014
What Happened
Washington became the first state to index minimum wage to inflation in 1998. Massachusetts and other progressive states experimented with rates above the federal floor. By 2014, the state-federal gap had widened dramatically. Studies from these early adopters—particularly research on San Francisco's increases—showed minimal employment effects, emboldening other states. The "laboratory of democracy" concept proved itself.
Outcome
Short Term
Blue states demonstrated higher wages didn't destroy jobs as predicted; Seattle studies became flashpoint for debate.
Long Term
Automatic indexing became standard best practice, adopted by 20 states, insulating workers from inflation without repeated legislation.
Why It's Relevant Today
Today's state-led movement has 25+ years of evidence showing wage floors can rise without catastrophe, undermining business opposition.
Fight for $15: From Fringe to Mainstream (2012-2024)
2012-2024
What Happened
When 200 NYC fast-food workers struck in November 2012 demanding $15/hour, economists and business groups called it economically illiterate. The federal minimum was $7.25; even progressive proposals topped out at $10-$12. SEIU gambled millions funding the campaign. Strikes spread globally. Cities like SeaTac and Seattle passed $15 ordinances. Sanders made it a 2016 presidential campaign pillar. By 2024, 17 states had reached $15, and McDonald's was paying $15+ to attract workers.
Outcome
Short Term
Shifted Overton window: $15 went from laughable to normal in a decade. Cities and states acted where Congress wouldn't.
Long Term
Demonstrated labor organizing could win through political pressure and legislation when traditional collective bargaining failed.
Why It's Relevant Today
Proves that what seems radical becomes mainstream—Sanders now pushes $17, and it might follow the same trajectory by 2035.
