Overview
Washington state just became the first state to crack $17 an hour, setting its minimum wage at $17.13 for 2026. The federal minimum wage hasn't budged from $7.25 since 2009. Into that vacuum, 19 states raised their wage floors on New Year's Day 2026, delivering $5 billion in raises to 8.3 million workers—without Congress lifting a finger.
What started with 200 fast-food workers walking off the job in New York City in 2012 has become a wholesale restructuring of American wage policy. Seattle and SeaTac pioneered $15 in 2013-2014. Now states are racing past that mark while localities like Los Angeles mandate $30 for hotel workers before the 2028 Olympics. The federal wage floor, meanwhile, has lost 46% of its purchasing power since its 1968 peak.
Key Indicators
People Involved
Organizations Involved
The movement that turned $15 from a radical demand into mainstream policy across dozens of states and cities.
Administers the Fair Labor Standards Act establishing the federal minimum wage floor since 1938.
Calculates Washington's minimum wage annually using federal Consumer Price Index inflation data.
Timeline
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Washington State Minimum Wage Rises to Nation's Highest at $17.13
LegalWashington sets new state record; 19 states raise wages affecting 8.3 million workers earning $5 billion more.
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Alaska and Missouri Pass $15 Wage Ballots
LegalVoters approve gradual increases; California's $18 proposal becomes first wage ballot to fail since 1996.
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Biden Raises Federal Contractor Minimum to $15
LegalExecutive order affects 370,000 federal workers and contractors after Congressional failure.
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Senate Parliamentarian Blocks $15 Federal Minimum
LegalRuling prevents wage increase in COVID relief package despite Democratic control of Congress.
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Washington Voters Approve Initiative 1433
Legal60% vote for $13.50 wage by 2020 with automatic inflation adjustments thereafter.
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California and New York Adopt Statewide $15 Minimums
LegalNation's two largest states pass legislation phasing in $15 minimum wages.
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Largest Low-Wage Worker Protest in US History
MovementTens of thousands strike in 200+ cities demanding $15/hour.
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Seattle Unanimously Adopts $15 Wage
LegalCity Council approves 61% increase phased over seven years following SeaTac's lead.
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SeaTac Passes $15 Minimum Wage
LegalSmall Washington city approves Proposition 1 by 70 votes, first $15 wage in nation.
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200 NYC Fast-Food Workers Launch First Strikes
MovementWorkers demand $15/hour and union rights in what becomes Fight for $15 movement.
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Federal Minimum Wage Rises to $7.25
LegalFinal step of 2007 increase takes effect. Wage remains unchanged 16 years later.
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Congress Approves Wage Increase After Decade Freeze
LegalThree-step increase approved after minimum wage stuck at $5.15 for ten years.
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Minimum Wage Reaches Peak Purchasing Power
EconomicAt $1.60/hour ($14.47 in 2024 dollars), federal wage hits highest inflation-adjusted value ever.
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FDR Signs Fair Labor Standards Act
LegalFederal minimum wage established at 25¢ per hour under President Roosevelt.
Scenarios
Federal Wage Remains Frozen Through 2028
Discussed by: Economic Policy Institute, labor economists tracking Congressional gridlock
The most likely scenario: divided government and Republican opposition keep the federal floor at $7.25 for a fifth presidential term. States continue racing ahead with their own increases, creating a patchwork system where coastal and blue states cluster around $17-20 while Southern states stay at federal minimum. The gap widens between state policies. By 2028, the federal wage would have been frozen for 19 years—the $7.25 floor worth roughly $5 in 1968 purchasing power. Business groups celebrate avoiding federal mandates while worker advocates channel energy into state and local campaigns.
Democrats Win Trifecta, Pass $17 Federal Minimum by 2030
Discussed by: Progressive Democrats, National Employment Law Project analyzing legislative pathways
If Democrats sweep the 2024 or 2028 elections and reform or override the filibuster, they could pass the Raise the Wage Act phasing in $17 by 2030 with inflation adjustments. The challenge: moderate Democrats from low-cost states might balk at a uniform national floor that doesn't account for regional cost-of-living differences. Economists would debate whether rapid increases in states currently at $7.25 cause job losses. Business groups would launch legal challenges. High-wage states like Washington and California would need to maintain their leads, potentially pushing to $20-22 to preserve differentials.
Regional Wage Floors Replace Single National Standard
Discussed by: Moderate economists and policy analysts proposing cost-of-living adjustments
Congress breaks the stalemate by indexing federal minimums to regional cost-of-living data, creating different floors for high-cost urban areas versus rural regions. This compromise would raise floors in expensive markets while protecting businesses in low-cost areas. The Economic Policy Institute and regional planning organizations would need to define geographic zones. High-wage states might resist federal interference with their existing systems. Conservatives would support regional variation while progressives would argue it perpetuates geographic inequality. Implementation complexity could doom the approach despite theoretical appeal.
Localities Leap to $25-30, Triggering Business Backlash
Discussed by: Hotel and restaurant associations warning of LA's $30 wage precedent
Los Angeles' $30 minimum for hotel workers before the 2028 Olympics becomes a template for other cities hosting major events or facing affordability crises. San Francisco, New York, Boston, and Seattle raise minimums to $25-30 for specific sectors or citywide. Business groups sue, arguing local wages create impossible compliance burdens and violate interstate commerce. Some companies relocate operations to suburbs or low-wage states. The Supreme Court eventually hears cases determining how high local governments can set wages. Worker advocates celebrate victories while economists study whether aggressive local floors accelerate automation and job losses.
Historical Context
Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938
1938-presentWhat Happened
President Franklin Roosevelt signed the FLSA during the Great Depression, establishing a federal minimum wage of 25¢ per hour to prevent exploitative labor practices and stimulate consumer purchasing power. The law covered only about 38% of workers initially but gradually expanded. Congress raised the wage 22 times over the next 71 years, typically every 1-10 years based on inflation and political consensus.
Outcome
Short term: The initial minimum wage affected 300,000 workers and established federal authority over wage standards.
Long term: The wage reached peak purchasing power in 1968 at $1.60/hour ($14.47 in 2024 dollars) before decades of erosion reduced real value by 46% by 2024.
Why It's Relevant
The current 16-year freeze represents the longest period without an increase since the minimum wage was created, breaking the historical pattern of regular congressional action.
Card-Krueger New Jersey Study (1994)
1992-1994What Happened
When New Jersey raised its minimum wage from $4.25 to $5.05 in April 1992, economists David Card and Alan Krueger surveyed 410 fast-food restaurants in New Jersey and neighboring Pennsylvania before and after the increase. Their rigorous empirical approach compared real-world outcomes rather than relying on theoretical models. The results shocked the economics profession.
Outcome
Short term: The study found no evidence of job losses; New Jersey restaurants increased employment by 13% relative to Pennsylvania controls.
Long term: The research fundamentally challenged the consensus that minimum wage increases cause unemployment, earning Card the 2021 Nobel Prize and emboldening policymakers to pursue higher wages.
Why It's Relevant
This study gave intellectual ammunition to the Fight for $15 movement, allowing advocates to counter business claims that wage increases inevitably destroy jobs.
SeaTac and Seattle $15 Wage Experiments (2013-2014)
2013-2020What Happened
SeaTac, a small city surrounding Seattle's airport, passed a $15 minimum wage by just 70 votes in November 2013. Six months later, Seattle's City Council unanimously approved a $15 wage following intense organizing by fast-food workers and SEIU. Both became test cases for whether such dramatic increases (61% in Seattle's case) would devastate employment as business groups predicted.
Outcome
Short term: Business groups sued to block the laws and warned of mass layoffs; courts eventually upheld the measures after multiple challenges.
Long term: Studies showed mixed results: UC Berkeley found no job losses; University of Washington found hours worked declined for some workers but experienced workers saw earnings rise. Neither city experienced the economic catastrophe predicted.
Why It's Relevant
These early adopters proved $15 minimums were politically and economically viable, triggering a cascade of similar policies in cities and states nationwide and validating the Fight for $15's strategy.